Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Running Backs, Part One
Throughout the season, the Rookie Report Card has covered some of the biggest rookies and not only looked at their performances to date – but also their long-term upside. Now that the regular season has wrapped up and dynasty managers are looking towards the future, we have an opportunity to take one last look at the 2022 season and assess the rookies – a final report card if you will.
We covered 38 rookies throughout the season, including 11 running backs. Let’s put a bow on the season by taking one more look at those ball carriers’ first shot handling the ball on Sundays, as well as a quick glimpse into their futures in part one of two of the running back Rookie Report Card.
Tyler Allgeier, RB ATL
2022 Stats: 210 carries, 1,35 yards (4.9 YPC), three touchdowns, 16 receptions, 139 yards, one touchdown
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week Eight
I’ve never been a very big fan of Tyler Allgeier. To me, he’s always appeared to be a rotational tailback with some upside as a short-yardage specialist, going back to his days at BYU, but the rookie had a spectacular finish to his first season in the league.
Allgeier had three RB1 finishes over the final week of the season, posting RB8 numbers (22.6 fantasy points) in week 15, RB12 numbers (15.7) in week 16 and another RB12 finish (16.5) in week 17 in PPR setups. In fact, he was the RB12 over that stretch in fantasy.
Nevertheless, his surge at the end of 2022 feels like his ultimate fantasy upside. There’s a good chance the 1,035 rushing yards and 159.4 fantasy points he posted as a rookie are career highs. The D+ grade for “rest of rookie season potential” I gave him back in week eight may have been a little off. As it turns out, he reached the C grade I gave him for “long-term upside” a little sooner than expected.
I still feel like he’s a player with good vision, who get’s what’s blocked and can break the occasional tackle, but lacks the explosiveness to be a long-term factor at this level. I expect the Falcons to replace Allgeier as their primary runner this off-season and urge dynasty managers to sell him before it happens. Currently going for a second-round rookie pick on the trade market, I’d be thrilled to see that offer in my inbox.
James Cook, RB BUF
2022 Stats: 89 carries, 507 yards (5.7 YPC), two touchdowns, 21 receptions, 180 yards, one touchdown
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week 13
When I wrote about Cook back in week 13, I concluded with a comparison to Cowboys halfback Tony Pollard. He’s explosive, plays in a very good offense and is attached to good quarterback. I added that one of the only differences between the two was that Cook doesn’t have to share the backfield with a formerly elite tailback but the truth is, Pollard has excelled in a run-first offense while Cook plays in an offense with no commitment to the running game – another glaring difference.
Cook was dynamic in limited playing time this year, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and proving to have explosive upside as a pass catcher. Meanwhile, his counterpart in the Buffalo backfield, Devin Singletary, averaged 4.6 yards per carry. To reach his high-end RB2 upside though, the team will have to make a commitment to Cook as a runner like Dallas has with Pollard this season. Without that kind of commitment, his A- upside will be wasted.
Breece Hall, RB NYJ
2022 Stats: 80 carries, 463 yards (5.8 YPC), four touchdowns, 19 receptions, 218 yards, one touchdown
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week Five
I’m not sure if there is much more to say about Hall than what has already been said. We expected him to handle a big workload, make breaking tackles look easy, be explosive on the perimeter, change directions on a dime, display elite balance and contribute as a difference-making pass catcher and he did all those things.
Unfortunately his rookie season got cut short due to injury but that hasn’t slowed dynasty managers from investing in Hall. Currently the RB3 at 1.08 in January ADP, Hall is at or very near his peak value in dynasty.
Most, myself included, expect Hall to be an elite running back for years to come. To me that means if you’re a contender, you put him in your lineup every week for the foreseeable future. But if you’re not, there’s a good case to be made that because he plays the most injury-prone position in fantasy football, you should be considering offers that limit your risk. Currently valued equally to multiple first-round picks as well as some of the premiere wideouts in fantasy (who carry far less injury risk), it’d be foolish not to.
Zonovan Knight, RB NYJ
2022 Stats: 85 carries, 300 yards (3.5 YPC), one touchdown, 13 receptions, 100 yards
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week 12
Despite being undrafted out of North Carolina State, Knight found his way to the top of the Jets’ depth chart late in the season and for the most part, outplayed expectations.
Accounting for 400 yards from scrimmage over the final seven weeks of the season, Knight’s best games came early in his stead as the Jets’ lead runner. Three top-24 weekly finishes (15.3 fantasy points per game) previewed a disappointing stretch run as he averaged just 1.8 yards per carry and 3.3 fantasy points per game over the final month.
As he did in college, Knight struggled to take on tacklers, going down far too easily on first contact with arm tackles. He also doesn’t appear to have the overall explosiveness to be a difference-maker at this level.
No longer worth a third-round rookie pick, Knight looks like an end-of-bench stash at best, at this point. He’ll struggle to get on the field behind Hall and Michael Carter so his days of dynasty relevance may be over.
Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
2022 Stats: 170 carries, 830 yards (4.9 YPC), five touchdowns, 13 receptions, 130 yards
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week 12
For a seventh-round pick, Pacheco outplayed expectations ten-fold as a rookie. He ran for 830 yards and five touchdowns while averaging nearly five yards per carry, clearly outplaying Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones along the way. His “all gas, no brakes” running style is fun to watch and his reckless abandon approach to every carry makes him a threat to make a big play every time he touches the football.
All that translated to a very productive rookie season and caused many dynasty managers to fall in love with his upside in a Kansas City offense suited to produce stud running backs for fantasy. The truth is, however, Pacheco never appeared comfortable as a pass catcher in college and hasn’t proved to this point to be a threat in that department with the Chiefs – catching just 12 passes as a rookie.
Pacheco’s game lends to being part of a committee in the NFL. If he gets regular work as an early down runner in a good offense, that can translate to useful RB2 weeks with a very low floor. Unless he improves as a pass catcher though, that’s probably his ultimate upside – which is exactly what we saw from him this season.
The RB29 in January ADP, he’s being valued equal to a second rookie round pick by many and I simply can’t stomach that price tag considering Jerick McKinnon looked far more explosive in that offense down the stretch. If a journeyman veteran can look (and produce) that much better than the rookie, I’d be looking to move Pacheco if I could get that kind of return.
Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
2022 Stats: 220 carries, 939 yards (4.3 YPC), four touchdowns, 30 receptions, 165 yards, one touchdown
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week Four
I misjudged Pierce more than any other prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft simply because he never proved in college that he could handle a starter’s workload. I loved him coming out of Florida and saw his talent but insisted on following the masses who were pounding the table that he lacked the long speed and pedigree to be a difference-maker in the NFL.
Man, we were wrong.
Pierce is great at identifying running lanes, powerful at the point of attack and incredibly aggressive around tacklers. He battles for extra yardage, has moves to make defenders miss at the second level, and has shown he has upside as a pass catcher on check-downs. Most importantly, he was productive.
After week two, Pierce scored at least 12.2 fantasy points and finished as a top-22 running back in nine-of-11 games, despite playing in one of the lowest-ranked offenses and behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. It’s a shame he went on season-ending injured reserve in week 15 and couldn’t finish what he started as a rookie.
Currently valued as the RB20 in dynasty as a sixth-round startup pick (64 overall), Pierce is properly valued but has the potential to surge in value if Houston makes strides towards improving.
A workhorse runner with the potential to catch 40-plus passes in a season, Pierce has low-end RB1 upside if Houston makes a quality coaching hire, fixes their offensive line and finds a quarterback sooner rather than later. Granted… those are a lot of ifs.
Check back soon for the rest of the rookie running back grades in part two of the Final Rookie Report Card: Running Backs.
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