Jeff Haverlack: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to the first in a new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this rankers personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: JEFF HAVERLACK

Every coach has their own style or methodology of player valuation based on how we choose to build our teams or value rookies.

For as long as I can recall, I’ve always been a statistics nerd. Through the use of statistics involving historical probability and standard deviation, I’ve been able to merge statistics with what I consider to be my dynasty superpower of wading through the noise, hype, and herd mentality to arrive at what I call the “what is” of player value. I’m not often swayed by social trends or pressure to conform to a valuation trend. It has happened in the past, and I’ve regretted it nearly every time.

My favorite part of the dynasty game is rookie scouting and the NFL rookie draft. It’s what I’m most passionate about and what I do best. But, oddly juxtaposed to that, is the fact that when building my dynasty teams, those who follow my work know I subscribe to a “known over unknown” valuation methodology. Whether that be in my start-sit advice or, more notably, my valuation of rookies to that of veteran players, known vs. unknown plays out in my ranks. For that reason, you can usually expect to see my valuation lower, many times markedly so, on unproven rookie players unless I have a very tangible and confident reason to believe otherwise.

One last note relates to a recent strategy shift I adopted in 2021:  Prioritization of receivers over running backs. The continued expansion of the running back by committee (RBBC) when combined with usage inconsistency, injury, and generally shorter peak career years led to a shift where I strongly favor young productive receivers over running backs. This is not an adoption of “Zero RB” but, instead, more of an “RB Light” approach. I’ve already seen benefits to this adjustment. Combine that shift with my willingness to acquire mid-to-late career productive veterans and my ranking methodology becomes more clear. I’m unafraid to buy who others are selling as they try to get ahead of the production decline.

Let’s get to my rankings!

Rankings: 1 - 24

My ranking methodology begins to come into view. We have consensus in the top four players and, for the first time I can remember, they are all receivers. My ranking style shows up in the +/- (variance from consensus) column of both Tee Higgins and Tyreek Hill, receivers, over the three following players, two of which are running backs. I do like great running backs but it’s been very difficult to find top backs who remain consistently productive and injury free, thus, the reduction in value.

Most notably, we find my ranking of the 2023 1.01 at 10th overall. 2023 is an anomaly in that you won’t usually find me placing this selection that highly among a veteran player mock draft. But much like 2007 (Adrian Peterson) and 2018 (Saquon Barkley), 2023’s phenom running back, Bijan Robinson, checks all the boxes for a carry-the-load back to invest in. As my only tier-one player in the 2023 NFL Draft, I’m placing a very high value on Robinson and his immediate potential impact in dynasty. Drafted situation can be tricky for valuations this early but I’m a strong believer of talent winning out in the long run.

Looking beyond my first rookie selection, I’m higher on Deebo Samuel than consensus and remain confident in my valuation, though I do understand if some drop his rank based on the 49ers acquisition of Christian McCaffrey. This could play out early in 2023 and can be considered a risk-on component to Samuel’s production, but I’m very confident in his dynamic to age quotient.

I have begun lowering Davante Adams only recently based on a combination of age (30) and quarterback uncertainty. My relatively low ranking of Amon-Ra St. Brown is due to upcoming offensive uncertainty surrounding receiver changes, potential quarterback change and simply liking the production potential of other players more. In talking earlier about fading the noise, I did just that this off-season when valuing Josh Jacobs. He was a strong sell as the Twitter crowd jumped off the bandwagon. His age, contract status, and upside all suggested more upside than downside, especially for a back who is three-down capable.

I have been higher than consensus on Chris Godwin but the field has come to me as he has shown he’s recovered from injury. Quarterback uncertainty reigns supreme with Godwin but his age and receiver profile makes him a prime receiver target in my book.

Rankings: 25 - 48

I’m significantly lower on Stefon Diggs than the field and I always have been. In the past it was because of his inconsistency while with the Vikings. I was dubious that a change of scenery in Buffalo was going to net the consistency I needed to invest. I’ve been wrong but turning 30 in 2023, I’m hesitant to invest at this point and will simply allow other coaches to draft him ahead of myself while I focus on greater youth and/or value. Beyond Diggs, you see my continuing deemphasis on running back, even with D’Andre Swift, who I feel is arguably the best pure runner in the NFL, but has been unable to carry-the-load due to recurrent injury.

The 1.02 is found as my 27th-overall rank as the top of the second-tier in my rookie rankings. This likely represents Alabama runner Jahmyr Gibbs but could be heavily influenced by drafted situation. Gibbs is a bit of a tweener who could be drafted to a team with an already established two-down runner.

Other notable ranks in this block are DeVonta Smith and Justin Herbert. In Smith’s case, I continue to apply premium to this young, upside elite route-runner. I pounded the table that size concerns in his case were overblown and I believe we’re starting to see his ability and production potential play out. He’s still a stellar value when surveying the field on his ranking. As for Justin Herbert, I was looking for a follow-on performance to 2021 and didn’t see what I needed to keep his premium-laden ranking in the 1QB format. Still a fine cornerstone piece at quarterback but I have reduced his ranking.

Rankings: 49 - 72

New for 2023 is my ranking of TJ Hockenson who now appears as my TE2. I’m higher than the field on Hockenson due to his age and production safety as evidenced by his 2022 production following his trade from Detroit to Minnesota. It’s not out of the question that he overtakes Mark Andrews as my top tight end in 2023. Travis Kelce gets a downgrade into the offseason based solely on age.

But lets talk about Kyle Pitts. For anyone who follows me, it’s well known that I had been pounding the table that Pitts was carrying far too much premium as a rookie. This is not to say that I do not like his athletic profile though I believe that carried a premium as well. But the tight end position is one where pedigree and promise rarely should equate to significant premium. To wit, I selected Ja’Marr Chase in two rookie drafts when Pitts was selected prior. When surveying the tight end field, very few top producing players are NFL first-round selections, though TJ Hockenson is one exception. Now Pitts will be entering yet another season with quarterback uncertainty while his fantasy coaches grow increasingly impatient while waiting for his production to match his significant hype.

This ranking block also shows my next three rookie selections, 1.03-1.05. Representing the first rookie receivers off the board while allowing for the possibility of a surprise upside running back in a premium situation. 2023 in the early-to-middle of the dynasty first-round remains a difficult value study and, as such, will carry significant production risk. While I have yet to see other rankers placement of rookie selections, I imagine my placement of these picks will be lower than the field. As such, I will prioritize known youth production and/or assessed upside over these selections.

Rankings: 73 - 96

I’m higher than Cam Akers than the field and feel confident in my view. I have no love for his Rams situation as Sean McVay has proven to be one of the more mercurial coaches in the NFL and I do not like status uncertainty of a top player. But Akers’ youth combined with his athletic profile, especially following his full recovery from a ruptured Achilles suffered in 2021, still finds him as a value-laden upside prospect in my book.

I’ve significantly reduced my ranking on Ravens receiver Rashod Bateman as Baltimore has shown an inability to produce an effective passing attack with Lamar Jackson at the helm. Combine that with a building injury ledger and I’ll let other coaches select him before I do. It’s disappointing as I was higher on his NFL potential than the field as a rookie before his selection by Baltimore. Justin Fields also carries a slightly reduced valuation from the field as I need to see him perform as a pass-first quarterback before I can trust him as a QB1. The Bears cannot let another season pass where they fail to address the receiver position.

We also find my next trio of draft selections, 1.06-1.08. As I was in 2022, I’m intrigued by some of the quality names in this draft who will fail to garner marquee attention but will fall to good NFL teams late in the first round and into the early-second round of the NFL Draft. If you are a competitive dynasty team holding a late-first selection, you will find good value and this is represented in my valuation of these selections here.

Rankings: 97 - 120

Closing out my top-120 rankings, rookie selections 1.09-1.11 are represented, again based on what I feel is a deep class of talent but with real potential at the bottom of the first round in dynasty rookie drafts. By my early research, there will be at least three or four intriguing running backs with size, one tight end and two receivers which will have significant NFL upside based on drafted situation. All of which won’t begin coming off the board in rookie drafts until approximately selection 1.07, meaning great value potential to close out round one should be present.

When surveying my last rankings block here to the field, few surprises are found though I am generally lower in value with the exception of Donovan Peoples-Jones and Josh Palmer, both of which are young and showed tremendous promise. Peoples-Jones was one of my top sleepers for 2022 and I was pleasantly surprised with his development this year. Palmer remains an intriguing young prospect who proved he could be productive as the team’s WR1 when provided the opportunity.

I hope you enjoyed this study of my 1QB dynasty fantasy football rankings. Should you have any input and/or questions, please hit me up in the comments below and I’ll be sure to respond!

• Author
• Recent Posts

Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

Latest posts by Jeff Haverlack (see all)

• Lineup Advice: Wrap-up, Thank You and Goodbye (TTFN) - January 1, 2024
• Lineup Advice: Week 17 – Championship Edition - December 26, 2023
• Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition - December 19, 2023