Jeff Haverlack: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to the first in a new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we've long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this rankers personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The "+/-" column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: JEFF HAVERLACK

Every coach has their own style or methodology of player valuation based on how we choose to build our teams or value rookies.

For as long as I can recall, I've always been a statistics nerd. Through the use of statistics involving historical probability and standard deviation, I've been able to merge statistics with what I consider to be my dynasty superpower of wading through the noise, hype, and herd mentality to arrive at what I call the "what is" of player value. I'm not often swayed by social trends or pressure to conform to a valuation trend. It has happened in the past, and I've regretted it nearly every time.

My favorite part of the dynasty game is rookie scouting and the NFL rookie draft. It's what I'm most passionate about and what I do best. But, oddly juxtaposed to that, is the fact that when building my dynasty teams, those who follow my work know I subscribe to a "known over unknown" valuation methodology. Whether that be in my start-sit advice or, more notably, my valuation of rookies to that of veteran players, known vs. unknown plays out in my ranks. For that reason, you can usually expect to see my valuation lower, many times markedly so, on unproven rookie players unless I have a very tangible and confident reason to believe otherwise.

One last note relates to a recent strategy shift I adopted in 2021:  Prioritization of receivers over running backs. The continued expansion of the running back by committee (RBBC) when combined with usage inconsistency, injury, and generally shorter peak career years led to a shift where I strongly favor young productive receivers over running backs. This is not an adoption of "Zero RB" but, instead, more of an "RB Light" approach. I've already seen benefits to this adjustment. Combine that shift with my willingness to acquire mid-to-late career productive veterans and my ranking methodology becomes more clear. I'm unafraid to buy who others are selling as they try to get ahead of the production decline.

Let's get to my rankings!