Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition

Jeff Haverlack Posted On December 19, 2023

Weeks 15/16

Another week of playoffs on tap and we continue to have monster injury issues, shifting quarterback trends, and I can’t think of a season that has been more of a blender than 2023. What gives?!?

There’s a lot of interesting trends that could impact teams well beyond 2023. It would be nice to think that when this season closes out, we could simply stuff it into a burn barrel and send it to the heavens. Or, more appropriately, maybe put it in a hefty bag loaded with rocks and drop it into bottomless pit to that other place. Somehow that seems more fitting.

Thinking of a couple primary issues that will be on my mind for 2024:

Have we seen the peak of Patrick Mahomes? Does the team realize he is not superhuman and must address the receiver position? I have to believe it’s obvious now.
The 2024 free agent running back class is one for the ages! How will this shape the running back market in 2024?
Speaking of running backs: The regression and committee usage is as troubling as I’ve seen. Does it get worse in 2024?
The 2024 rookie receiver class is, arguably, the best we’ve ever seen. When was the last time a running back wasn’t selected in the top five rookie picks in dynasty?
Brock Bowers is a highly-hyped rookie tight end, arguably greater than Kyle Pitts. But how does Pitts’ bust-worthy career thus far impact Bowers’ draft stock in dynasty?
The most interesting quarterback story of 2024 for me is none other than Justin Fields. Do the Bears reset the contract cost, punt on Fields and select Caleb Williams or Drake Maye? Fields should still garner first-round trade value but they could also get a haul by holding Fields and trading their projected 1.01. Fascinating.
The state of NFL quarterback play is not good. It’s even more of a have and have-not scenario. Almost half the league has significant issues here. How much impact does poor quarterback play have on quality rookies as they are drafted? It’s a significant issue that too many overlook.

Generally speaking, I had a good week of advice. My loose equation of snaps (role), touches and production, in that order, played out well this week on the fringe, but a lot of big names fell flat. You could see it play out in Ty Chandler, Devin Singletary, James Cook and even lesser names like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Zamir White. Unfortunately, trend and the “unknown” will keep me from suggesting plays like White unless your back is against the wall with no other options. At the same time, many were fading Tee Higgins and this past week is a good example of why we don’t do that. But, I do get the struggle. In crunch time, however, we just don’t bench our primary players for an obscure or risky trend.

Running backs continue to be the bane of 2023. D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen Warren, Zach Moss, Javonte Williams, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, and just what in the “H”, “E”, double hockey sticks is Atlanta doing with Bijan Robinson? I am well on record as saying don’t discount Tyler Allgeier’s role in Atlanta and that I saw, perhaps close to a 50-50 split in carries with Robinson. Robinson has 176 carries to Allgeier’s 166. I have a bone to pick with those who suggested, and I quote: “The game has passed you by.”

The “What is”

If you know me in my personal life, you know that I often preach about seeing things as they are, or as I say: “The what is! – Not what we want it to be, what it could be or what it should be.”

I often apply this to fantasy football as well. It’s sticky because fantasy football is a predictive game. But just because we’re predicting the future doesn’t mean we lose ourselves to the excitement or potential of a situation. I often describe this as: “Creating your own reality.” It’s very easy to do, in any event or application, and the result is never as good as it could be than if you always kept the “what is” in mind. For fantasy football, I use this most often when it comes to rookie picks and projections. The “what is” of rookie production and eventual NFL careers is that it’s largely a losing bet. I’ve written about this multiple times with data to back it up.

If it seems like I’m on a soapbox here, it just might be because I am. You might say it’s the “what is” of the situation. As I stare down the ending of my time here at DLF, after 17 years sharing the helm of this great enterprise, my wish is to help share the knowledge of what I believe it takes to win, and win consistently, in fantasy football. Random events will continue to shape the game and your results, there’s no way around it. But there’s usually a degree of order at the nucleus of random events. The issue is that the fantasy football community prefers to make things more difficult by focusing on the minutia instead of what really matters. It’s sexier and it drives traffic. The issue here is that minutia, lets refer to it as “metrics” are also “what is” variables. But where many get lost is that metrics are being used to determine the likelihood of “what is” already known: Production!

There’s an inherent flaw in this application and you can’t have this discussion with metric junkies as I call them. And I can say that because I was one of them. I’ve been the dark side and, while it’s still very much a part of me, it’s now in balance and I well understand the inherent flaws in the application for fantasy football.

Predictive analysis will always have a place in fantasy football, just as it does in many other areas, including my primary passion of investing and the stock market. But what is (there’s that phrase again) most important in fantasy football is production. The metrics are trying to determine where greater production will come from in the future while it’s current production returning results now. This is why teams focusing on current production always perform better on the whole over those playing the futures market. Why put so much emphasis on trying to get more production in the future by leveraging what you could have now? It’s the game each of us plays.

I’ll hop off the soapbox now but wanted to give you something to think about as you plan your next year in this great game. Let me just emphasize that I have no hate toward predictive analytics in our game. I still use it myself. In fact, draft picks, rookie projections and building that next dynasty via youth are still the most fun elements for me. Production is boring – but it’s “what is” most important if you want to win.

If you want proof of these last couple of paragraphs, consider this. I would bet I’m in the top 10%, maybe higher, of fantasy football analysts in time reviewing/scouting rookies via predictive analytics and metrics which suggest success at the next level. When looking back at my results, I’m very happy with my success rate and stand by my results. I have one team (of 14) that is completely focused on elements of what I find most fun about the dynasty game: Rookies, draft picks and my favorite players. In this league only, I forego winning and, instead, amass rookies, youth and draft picks for max enjoyment while rooting for my favorite players I roster. This single league is the one that essentially founded DLF. While all my other leagues have very good playoff and championship win percentages, this rookie and youth-based team has appeared in, and won, a single championship in 21 years. And it’s a 10-team league. That’s really poor performance. When overlaying rookie/youth production trends to the dynasty values of the picks required to select them, it’s a losing proposition.

But it’s also so much fun. You just have to decide which is more important to you as a dynasty coach, or at least commit to a little of both.

Heading into this week’s advice, I’ll be waiting as long as possible to answer to get my arms around any injury news. If you have time sensitive non-lineup advice questions, please let me know at the top of your question so I can clearly see it when skimming the questions leading up to Thursday.

Team Tracking

Of my 10 teams that made the playoffs, seven are still alive due to wins or a first-week bye. That said, I do have one team that plays in a unique pool-playoff format that should have been booted due to low score, but will be spared because I have an elimination bye, meaning that my team can’t be eliminated in the first week. There’s just something about this team. In most every year it’s in the top two teams and in most every year, it scores so poorly during the first week of the playoffs that it makes winning the league almost impossible. It’s really strange and I can’t figure it out. I’ve never seen anything like it.

I had one team, one I was certain would be getting the loss, that almost won with a ridiculously low score. I didn’t even bother checking that score until late on Sunday because I was so outmatched there was no reason to. Kind of a poetic end as if D’Andre Swift doesn’t trip over Jason Kelce and go down at the one, losing the touchdown, then Jalen Hurts doesn’t get that touchdown and I think I win by a fraction of a point, maybe even tie. In the end, as much as I hate to say it, I’d rather have the draft position.

Looking at my remaining teams, undoubtedly some of them will move on to the championship game but a combination of quarterback injury and running back production doesn’t bode well almost across the board. If there’s a saving grace in the situation, the same issues are leaguewide and I’m no unicorn. We shall see.

Good luck this week! Play your best roster and do your part to keep your league competitive regardless of the state of your team.

Let’s get to the advice!

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see growth in our membership and each year I continue to wonder how I’m going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you’ve all come to expect from me. I’ve been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

Please don’t ask me to set your entire lineup
Put “TNF” as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling(s).
Include your scoring format (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
Keep your questions as brief as possible – Story questions add a lot of time
I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don’t worry, I’ll be back to it.
It’s easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I’m wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I’m still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Author
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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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