2023 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Bryce Young, QB Alabama
The NFL’s quarterback landscape has given superflex players heartburn for two seasons in a row, and after a lackluster 2022 rookie class came in and anchored benches across the league, the call for stars at fantasy’s most important position has reached a fever pitch.
Good news, superflexers: your savior is about to make his grand entrance.
Alabama true junior quarterback Bryce Young may not look like much… and at 6’0” 180 lbs., you have to squint to see him at all from a distance. But you’ll know him by the 2021 Maxwell Award he’s carrying under his right arm, and the 2021 Davey O’Brien award he’s carrying under his left. He would love to show you his 2021 National Championship ring and his 2021 Heisman trophy, but those are locked in his trophy case at home.
Recruitment
A five-star prospect from Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, CA, Young was the top QB and the fifth-best prospect overall in the 2020 class. He received offers from… well, basically everyone. So he did what most top recruits do: he committed to Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.
The comparison to Russell Wilson was much more flattering prior to 2022, but the point is still well-taken. Before he even set foot on a college campus, Young was a dual-threat QB destined to be a top-ten NFL Draft pick.
Collegiate Career
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
After limited action behind Mac Jones in 2020, Young exploded onto the scene in 2021 with 4,872 yards on a 66.9% completion rate, 47 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and three rushing TDs to bring him to an even 50. And then all of the trophies and accolades that come with a season like that, starting with the Heisman.
Somehow, after 81 rushing attempts, he only managed to break even on yardage, but the willingness to take off when a play breaks down should tantalize superflex players – and the ability to extend plays while still looking to throw once outside the pocket provides dynasty players with a more sustainable long-term floor.
Young wasn’t quite as prolific in 2022, particularly throwing the ball. He attempted 167 fewer passes, threw for 1,544 fewer yards and 15 fewer TDs. That’s the bad news. But he did miss three games, and his completion percentage (64.5%) and passer rating (163.2, down from 167.5) dipped only slightly. His adjusted yards per attempt (9.9) was virtually identical to the 2021 iteration (10.0). And though he ran the ball fewer times (49), he was far more effective running the ball, averaging 3.8 yards per carry on his way to 185 yards, and added an extra TD. He also had the two best rushing games of his career in 2022, going for 48 yards and a score week 14 against Auburn, and 100 yards and a TD in week one against Utah State.
Athletic Profile
The first thing anyone will point out is his size. Think Drew Brees, but 20 pounds lighter. It could become a concern if he’s taking a lot of big hits at the pro level, but he’s quick enough, elusive enough, and instinctive enough to avoid contact and extend plays. He’s comfortable in the pocket, but he’s at his best when the protection breaks down and he has to extend the play and improvise.
Strengths
- Quick release, with accuracy on short-to-intermediate routes.
- Surprisingly strong arm, with velocity and accuracy off platform
- Poised and instinctive in the pocket; doesn’t take off from a clean pocket, but evades the rush and extends the play. Elusive runner, but he’s generally looking downfield to complete a pass, even on the run.
- Intangibles for days! Intelligent, high football I.Q., very coachable, confident and calm.
Weaknesses
- Teeny tiny. Below-average height at 6’0”, but his 180-pound frame is cause for concern.
- Not a lot of touch; drives the ball down the field rather than dropping it into a shoebox.
- Deep ball accuracy needs some work.
- Has only played for winners; how will he adjust to the NFL team that earned the first overall pick?
Draft Value
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
Young has consistently been a consensus-projected top-three pick all season, and even spent several weeks as the top pick. Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter and Young’s Alabama teammate – edge rusher Will Anderson – may grade a little higher as prospects agnostic of position. And some analysts prefer Ohio State’s CJ Stroud or Kentucky’s Will Levis as the top QB in the class (or just believe that the Houston Texans will take one of the other players first overall). But most mock drafts recognize that Young is the best player available at the most important position in this or any team sport. He’s going first overall.
Dynasty Outlook
This is why you should care about all of the information above. It’s not just that Young is an incredible talent, with a similar pedigree to Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning; it’s also the deficit of QB talent in the league right now.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are elite, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are close behind. Trevor Lawrence seems to be on the verge of a massive breakout into the elite tiers, Justin Fields flashed in the second half of his sophomore season, Jalen Hurts is the likely MVP, and Dak Prescott is rock solid (when he’s healthy). But that’s the entire list of foundational QBs for superflex players to choose from. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are incredibly talented, but too inconsistent to anchor a dynasty roster.
It’s not that we’re settling for Young; we settled for Kenny Pickett. Young isn’t the best bad QB in a class of bad QBs. It’s actually the opposite; with several first-round quality QBs entering the NFL Draft – all of them better than anyone in the 2022 class – Young is the cream of the crop. He will join the league with the job security afforded to the first overall pick, and the talent to back it up.
But he creates a massive dilemma for superflex players. In a 1QB league, there is no question that Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the slam dunk, no-brainer 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts. And he belongs in the conversation in superflex leagues too… in fact, he will have a higher ADP than Young in superflex leagues. But if a dynasty superflex team manager has the first overall pick – if you earned the first overall pick – it was probably due to a lack of QB production. And now, there is exactly one way to fix that problem: take a QB first overall. Pass on Robinson and take a QB who solidifies the position for the next 10+ years.
Our Superflex Rookie Rankings have Young going second behind Bijan, who is not only the consensus 1.01, but the top fantasy prospect for every single ranker. And you know what? They’re right. Robinson walks in as a top-five dynasty RB, with league-winning upside at a position that historically delivers championships more than any other. He’s an immediate difference-maker and an unfair advantage. It’s going to be incredibly difficult to pass on him.
Consider this: Josh Jacobs came into the league as the RB15, and Travis Etienne started as RB20. Rhamondre Stevenson opened as RB50, Tony Pollard broke in as RB60, and Austin Ekeler entered the league as RB71. In fact, the undrafted free agent Ekeler didn’t break into the top-ten until this year, when he was RB7 before the season. And every one of those guys just contributed to fantasy championship victories. You can find RBs. They won’t be Bijan, but you can find them. Where are you going to find an elite-level QB like Bryce Young?
Take the QB. And while you’re at it, stay sexy and superflexy!
