Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football: Top Six 2024 NFL Draft Quarterbacks In Focus

“Carolina’s weapons include WRs Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, along with RB Miles Sanders, which makes the offense more fantasy fruitful in the short term.” – Comparing Carolina to Houston as QB landing spots.

“But if we set aside the fantasy lens and look at this from the perspective of an NFL front office, we realize that Levis appears to be the safer prospect.” – Predicting Will Levis to be drafted ahead of Anthony Richardson.

“I believe he will be a first-round pick, but the prediction here is that he is not top five, top ten, or even top 15.” – Predicting a slide to the middle of the first round for Richardson.

Some of last year’s predictions in this same article were… questionable. The reality is, all it takes is one NFL front office disagreeing with my evaluations to prove me wrong.

I bring it up because, as you’ll soon find out, this year I’m predicting that six quarterbacks are drafted in the first round. It would be unprecedented, and it is a bold prediction. Here’s the thing though… I could definitely be wrong about the six. Maybe it’s seven. Maybe even eight. Who knows?

It’s an interesting time in the NFL, when suddenly, roughly half of the league is unsettled at QB, either short-term, long-term, or both. The Bears, Washington Football Team (Commanders, whatever. They had it right the first time. WFT FTW!), Patriots, Vikings, Raiders, and Broncos all NEED a quarterback, without a true starter on roster. The Giants, Saints, Seahawks, and possibly the 49ers could all use an upgrade. The Rams, Jets, Falcons, and possibly the Lions could use a long term contingency plan. And the Titans, Steelers, Browns, Panthers, and maybe even the Cowboys and Jaguars are anxiously holding their breath, hoping they have the answer on roster, but secretly wondering if they need a break-the-glass emergency option.

While the prediction of six in the first round seems aggressive, we may find out that it wasn’t aggressive enough. Last season was a reminder that the NFL Draft is unpredictable, and that was in a more defined class with fewer teams flirting with desperation.

The one thing that doesn’t change and isn’t hard to predict, is the way we can use the information we’re given in the draft for our dynasty superflex leagues. Draft capital trumps landing spot, talent rises, and the rule that “QB drives superflex” applies, but has its limits.

In an especially unpredictable year, let’s be prepared for anything… and react accordingly.

Here are the incoming rookie QBs headed for the first round, in the order I’m guessing they will be drafted, and the dynasty superflex impact they would have.

Caleb Williams, USC

Strengths

• Pure playmaker. Thrives at extending plays and turning broken plays into positive outcomes.
• Athletic, with scrambling abilities to extend plays and make accurate throws on the run. Keeps his eyes downfield when on the move, looking for an opportunity to throw first.
• Good velocity, good touch. Even on the run and when changing arm slot.
• Intelligent and efficient. Goes through his reads and makes good decisions; protects the ball, particularly in the red zone.

Weaknesses

• Prefers to throw, even when he has open field in front of him and can scramble for positive yards.
• Throws on the run rather than setting his feet a little too often.
• Always looking for the opportunity to improvise, often sacrificing a scheduled pass to his first read.

NFL Draft Prediction: First Overall, Chicago Bears

He’s going first overall, and we have known that for three years. He burst onto the scene as a true freshman in 2021, replacing Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma and dazzling coaches and scouts with his playmaking abilities. He transferred to USC and the legend grew as he won the Heisman trophy in 2022 and, with Trevor Lawrence in the NFL, became the new generational QB fascination. That type of signal cannot be ignored, and the Chicago Bears were willing to give up on a promising young QB in Justin Fields simply because Williams solves a century-old problem: find an elite QB.

Superflex Outlook

Anytime a quarterback enters the league with the fanfare and excitement that Williams will, they are automatically in consideration for the top pick in a superflex rookie draft. Couple that with the fact that Williams walks into one of the best situations possible for a first-overall pick QB – with a good system, good protection, and excellent pass-catchers in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen – and a general lack of talent at the other high-leverage dynasty position – running back – and Williams is the no-brainer 1.01 in superflex drafts. Dynasty managers would love to talk themselves into WR Marvin Harrison Jr, especially if he lands in a great situation with the Cardinals or Chargers. But the opportunity to replace Harrison’s positional advantage is far greater than the opportunity to find a QB with Williams’ long-term scoring potential. Don’t overthink this one, take the blue-chip QB.

Jayden Daniels, LSU

Strengths

• High football IQ; proficient in making pre-snap reads and adjustments, and then reading the field and making throws on time and on target.
• A pocket passer who is comfortable avoiding the rush within the confines of the pocket and making platformed throws.
• Extremely dangerous runner, with speed and elusiveness. Made even more dangerous by the fact that he is unpredictable in his scrambling and is generally looking to throw. Defenses can’t cheat up to stop him from running for chunk yardage.
• Whether hitting his first read, going through his progressions, or taking off and running, he is decisive and efficiently makes decisions that he will commit to.

Weaknesses

• Slender build, similar to CJ Stroud, which is a cause for concern with a mobile QB. Durability could be an issue.
• Loses significant accuracy and velocity when throwing on the run. Needs to be platformed to throw with any accuracy.
• Accuracy and arm strength both need to be developed a little. This may be a bigger weakness than it appeared at LSU, when his flaws were covered up by an elite receiving corps.

NFL Draft Prediction: Second Overall, Washington Commanders

Williams was the one slam dunk, everything else is highly speculative. The Washington Football Team does need a QB, and Daniels seems to be the most pro-ready QB in the class. But Washington could just as easily choose the upside of Drake Maye or the coachability of JJ McCarthy, or they could trade the pick and move back if they aren’t in love with any one QB. Outside of Williams, the QBs are all gambles, but the prediction here is that Daniels’ playmaking abilities are too much to pass up.

Superflex Outlook

While rookie pick 1.01 is an easy decision, rookie pick 1.02 gets very murky. A good landing spot for Harrison or Malik Nabers thrusts them into the conversation at 1.02, and the QB that Minnesota trades up to take will make a compelling case as well. Ahead of the NFL Draft, let’s pencil in Daniels as the second overall pick in superflex rookie drafts as well, but also acknowledge that team needs could push him past the top two WRs, and landing spots could drop him behind one or two other QBs. Daniels’ range is anywhere from 1.02 to 1.06 (in the right circumstances, TE Brock Bowers could also make a compelling case to go ahead of Daniels), with no right or wrong answer in that range.

Drake Maye, North Carolina

Strengths

• Big, mobile, big arm… cut from the Josh Allen/Will Levis cloth.
• Decisive. Not afraid to throw into tight windows.
• Two years of starting experience, but with plenty of raw talent to be developed.
• Avoids the rush within the pocket, still looking downfield to throw rather than tucking and running at the first sign of danger. Runs fast and hard when he does take off, and can pick up tough yards.

Weaknesses

• The intellectual side of the position is an issue. Reading coverages, anticipating pressure, etc., are all areas of struggle.
• Accuracy is inconsistent and his throwing motion is long and inefficient. Getting the ball out quickly and accurately doesn’t really happen.
• Struggles with accuracy and poor decision-making leads to a lot of turnovers.

NFL Draft Prediction: Third Overall, Minnesota Vikings (trade w/ New England Patriots)

The Vikings have been loading up for a big move, so they might as well make it a BIG move. The receiving group of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson will cover up a lot of accuracy blemishes, and Maye gives them a dynamic playmaker at the position that they haven’t had in 20 years. While the offense was effective with the precision passing of Kirk Cousins, they haven’t had the explosiveness that Maye could provide, raising the ceiling for the entire offense.

Superflex Outlook

Maye in Minnesota becomes the QB2 in the class by a wide margin. Harrison in Arizona and Nabers in LA with the Chargers would create an impossible decision for the 1.02 drafter, who will be looking to trade out of the dilemma. Ultimately, Maye belongs at 1.02 if he is drafted to be the guy throwing passes to Justin Jefferson and Co., especially when the WR position is so deep, both in the rookie class and the overall dynasty player pool. But Maye falling to 1.04, behind both Harrison and Nabers, is well within reason.

JJ McCarthy, Michigan

Strengths

• Gamer. Intense, hates losing, fearless in the pocket, and has the uncanny ability to impose his will on a game.
• High football IQ, with experience running a pro-style offense.
• Anticipates pressure, good footwork in the pocket to avoid the rush, and enough awareness and athleticism to extend the play when protection breaks down.

Weaknesses

• Inefficient throwing motion, which diminishes arm strength and accuracy.
• Lacks overall athleticism, including arm talent. Arm strength is average at best. Below average scrambling abilities.
• Locks in on first read, rather than going through progressions, and when he does go through his reads, he is slow and indecisive.

NFL Draft Prediction: Sixth overall, New York Giants

The Denver Broncos trading up to the fourth pick to snag McCarthy wouldn’t surprise me, to a point where I am tempted to make that the prediction. But it would be a heavy price tag, requiring this year’s 12th pick and their next two first-round picks (2025 and 2026), which could (and should) be a deterrent. So let’s assume that cooler heads prevail and he makes it past the top five. The New York Giants at sixth overall would make a lot of sense, as McCarthy represents the exact opposite of what they have had in Daniel Jones.

Superflex Outlook

The Giants would actually be a really good fit for McCarthy if this actually happens. The Broncos and Raiders are both contenders to trade up and take him fourth overall, which would give him an even better group of weapons. Regardless of his landing spot, his talent is going to keep him from going very high in superflex rookie drafts. McCarthy is a starting NFL QB with substantial job security, so he belongs in the top half of the first round. He could go as high as 1.04 if a QB-needy team is in pursuit, but a better draft position for him would be around 1.09 (and as late as 1.12), behind the top three QBs, the top two WRs, TE Brock Bowers, and at least two of Bo Nix (assuming a better landing spot), WR3, WR4, RB1, and possibly RB2.

Bo Nix, Oregon

Strengths

• Athletic. Arm talent all over the field with a compact throwing motion and mixes velocity and touch, very good escapability, scrambling abilities, and is comfortable making decisions and throwing while on the run.
• Experienced (as he should be after five years in college), and has shown year-over-year development and improvement. Enters the league with a highly refined skillset.
• Very good at the more nuanced aspects of the QB position. Highly effective pump fakes, good push to pick up tough yards on QB draws, etc.

Weaknesses

• Relatively old. He enters the league at 24 years old, with five years of starting experience in college. Besides his age, and while his experience can be viewed as a good thing overall, he also has five years of tape… with very little critical acclaim prior to 2023.
• Could be a checkdown machine. Nearly a third of his passes didn’t cross the line of scrimmage in 2023, which could mean even fewer shots down the field against NFL pass rushers.
• Accuracy and decision-making diminished in the face of the blitz. He can be hurried and is easily rattled.

NFL Draft Prediction: 11th overall, Las Vegas Raiders

The Patriots trade back yet again, this time from 11 to 13, allowing the Raiders to grab their long-term solution at QB. If the trade doesn’t materialize (it is, admittedly, highly speculative), Nix could go to New England at the 11 spot or Denver at 12th overall. It seems unlikely that he will make it past the Raiders’ 13th overall pick.

Superflex Outlook

The talent and the landing spot both put him ahead of McCarthy, even after inferior draft capital. Nix should be the fourth QB off the board in superflex rookie drafts, which puts him in consideration as early as 1.04. Ideally, the top two WRs, and possibly WR3 and Bowers, and maybe even the RB1 would still go ahead of him. While he makes sense at 1.04 for a QB-needy team, he is a much better fit in the 1.06-1.09 range.

Michael Penix, Washington

Strengths

• Arm talent, with an absolute rocket launcher and an efficient throwing motion. Arm strength isn’t quite matched by accuracy, but he understands throwing angles and fits the ball into tight windows with velocity.
• Very good at making pre-snap reads and adjustments, so he is rarely caught off guard by pressure.
• Good at climbing the pocket, moving the pocket by sliding while staying platformed, and has a quick release. All of this to say, he doesn’t take many sacks.

Weaknesses

• We don’t use the term “injury prone” around here, so let’s just say he has an extensive injury history. Major injuries, including two season-ending ACL injuries to the same knee.
• Accuracy is a liability, both in hitting receivers in stride and keeping the ball away from defensive challenge. Often his best-case scenario is a zero YAC completion and his worst-case scenario is a high probability turnover.
• Not particularly mobile, or at least he doesn’t use his legs very often. He can extend plays, but is wildly inaccurate outside of the pocket.
• Had an elite receiving corps at Washington, which is more of an unknown than a weakness. How will he perform with substandard weapons compared to the group he had in college?

NFL Draft Prediction: 32nd overall, New England Patriots

The talk of the town after his Pro Day… but so were Will Levis and Hendon Hooker in 2023, and Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder in 2022. I refuse to fall for it again. Penix is second-round talent at best, but several teams need a QB, which makes all of these guys look better than they are. After several tradebacks and a focus on the priorities on the front lines, the Patriots finally make their move for a QB by trading up two spots for Penix. Taking him in the first round gives them the fifth-year option, which is the type of shrewd move the New England front office has become known for.

Superflex Outlook

He’s still second-round talent, and New England is a notoriously bad landing spot for offensive skill position players for fantasy purposes. So don’t be fooled by the first-round draft capital; yes, he will get a substantial audition. But a mediocre talent in a bad landing spot is a recipe for disaster. Penix could go as early as 1.11 in superflex rookie drafts, but the ideal spot to target him would be in the mid-late second round, no earlier than 2.06. The prospects ahead of him will have significantly more potential.