Dynasty Fantasy Football Second-Year Leap: Rondale Moore, WR ARI
In this series, I want to highlight some rookies I expect to take a massive step forward in year two. I’ll look at various rookies, from those who had solid rookie years to those who did almost nothing in year one. To completely break down each player, I’ll split these pieces into five sections: college career and NFL Draft profile, rookie statistics, dynasty ADP analysis, future situation, and final recommendation.
If you want to read my previous entries, I’ve included the complete list at the bottom of this article. I also added links to my 2021 series, so you can look at last year’s breakouts and how they fared. This year, I’ve enjoyed writing these articles again, especially since I’ve examined a fresh set of potential breakouts.
Now, I want to look at one of my favorite prospects from the 2021 rookie class, Rondale Moore. He had an interesting rookie year, and is a polarizing player moving forward. With that said, let’s jump into it!
College Career and NFL Draft Profile
Moore burst onto the scene at Purdue in 2018.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
As an 18-year-old freshman, he recorded 114 receptions for 1,258 yards and 12 touchdowns, leading the NCAA in receptions. He also led the Big Ten in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns and was a consensus All-American selection at wide receiver. Additionally, he won the Paul Hornung Award, given to the most versatile player in college football.
On top of his awards and accolades, Moore’s freshman year was excellent from an analytical perspective.
Chart courtesy of DLF College Market Share App.
He had a ridiculous 31.47% market share as an 18-year-old, placing him in rarified air for any college prospect. After his freshman year, he was the clear 1.01 in almost all devy formats, even though he wasn’t eligible until the 2021 NFL Draft.
Of course, everything went wrong for Moore after 2018. He totaled only seven healthy games over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, although he had 64 receptions, 657 yards, and two receiving touchdowns in those contests. But his health concerns pushed him down draft boards, as he fell to the 49th overall pick to the Cardinals. He received better draft capital than many dynasty analysts expected, as some feared he would fall into the third round or even into day three.
Rookie Statistics
Moore opened his career with two excellent games, totaling 11 receptions for 182 yards and a touchdown. After that start, I fully expected Moore to join the ranks of the top young receivers in the NFL, both for fantasy football and the Cardinals.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, he peaked with a 24.4-point performance in week two, bursting onto the fantasy radar. Unfortunately, he only had double-digit fantasy points twice more throughout the rest of the season in weeks five and 11. After the first two weeks, he totaled only 43 receptions for 253 yards and no touchdowns across the 12 remaining games he played.
Even worse, the Cardinals phased him out of their offense as the year progressed.
Chart courtesy of DLF Snap Count App.
Through week nine, it seemed like the Cardinals wanted to expand Moore’s role in the offense as his snap count progressively rose. However, in week ten, he returned to a part-time role, topping out at a 43.6% snap share over his final five games. The Cardinals relied on trade acquisition Zach Ertz and veteran wide receivers AJ Green and Christian Kirk ahead of Moore. Most notably, Moore failed to gain an increased snap count and production share even when DeAndre Hopkins struggled with injuries. Overall, Moore flashed at the beginning of his rookie season, but I think most dynasty managers and analysts would classify his campaign as disappointing.
Future Situation
Since the 2021 season ended, the Cardinals have significantly changed their receiving weapons. They traded for Marquise Brown from the Ravens, spending their 2022 first-round draft pick to acquire him. Additionally, they allowed Christian Kirk to walk in free agency, leaving Moore as their incumbent slot receiver. They also extended Ertz to a long-term deal and drafted Trey McBride as his eventual successor.
However, they lost Hopkins to a six-game suspension to open the 2022 season, leaving an immediate target void. They re-signed Green to help fill in, but I don’t think he will make much of an impact. Therefore, Moore has a solid opportunity to contribute over the opening part of the season.
It’s important to note that Moore’s long-term opportunity isn’t as straightforward. The Cardinals locked up Kyler Murray through 2028, but it will be tough for Moore to ascend the target pecking order. Brown and Hopkins have high dead cap hits through 2023, and both players will command targets. Moore’s best path to relevance is if Hopkins starts to fall off and lose effectiveness. But, of course, that outcome is possible as Hopkins had one of his worst career years in 2021 and turned 30 years old this off-season. Finally, Moore only recently turned 22 years old himself, so he has plenty of time to grow in value.
Dynasty ADP Analysis
Moore has had a fascinating ADP journey throughout his time in the NFL.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
He entered the NFL in May with an ADP of 79 overall, holding relatively consistent value through September. Then, he saw a nice value gain in October after his strong start to the season, but he dropped back to his original value after slowing down the rest of the season.
As you can see, he dropped off a cliff in February 2022 as the new rookies entered the ADP. Since then, he’s rarely moved in value, as the Brown trade and Hopkins suspension happened around the same time. He had a small bump in April after the Cardinals moved on from Kirk, but even then, he never re-entered the top 100 in ADP. Right now, though, he sits at 121 overall, which seems like a value considering his rookie profile and his flashes in the NFL so far.
Trade Options and Final Recommendation
Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to examine some recent trades involving Moore.
This deal makes sense for a rebuilding dynasty team. I don’t think it’s possible to acquire a 2023 first-rounder or anywhere near that value for Leonard Fournette in most leagues. Therefore, grabbing a 2023 second-rounder and a solid flier like Moore is better than hanging onto a 27-year-old Fournette.
I didn’t include this trade to comment on the actual value, as I prefer the non-Rondale Moore side. However, I wanted to note that often the best way to acquire players in Moore’s value range is to throw them in on larger deals. Sometimes, dynasty managers overlook lower draft picks and fliers, and it’s a great way to squeeze out value.
Overall, I think Moore has a chance to show much more in year two than in year one. I’m not saying he will break out and become a superstar, but he should see a large role over the first six weeks. I might even recommend selling him before Hopkins comes back, but he’s someone I’d like to add to my dynasty team at his current value.
2022 Entries: Kyle Pitts, Rashod Bateman, Javonte Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Nico Collins
2021 Entries: D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Chase Claypool, Harrison Bryant, Gabriel Davis, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Lynn Bowden, Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darnell Mooney, Bryan Edwards, Jerry Jeudy
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