Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy, Sell and Hold: AFC East

With the NFL Draft now months behind us, team minicamps ongoing, and training camp/preseason just around the corner, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple months (pending injuries) as compared to September when the regular season is in full force.

In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!

Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:

• Player values were obtained from the combination of the June ADP, and the DLF Top-250 rankings;
• League paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
• Opinions on players are my own; and finally,
• Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.

With that said, let’s get started with the AFC East! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.

Buffalo Bills

Buy: Jamison Crowder, WR (ADP = 190.2, Rank = 196.6)

Last season, quarterback Josh Allen provided just under 1,100 PPR points, at nearly 63 per game. Star wideout Stefon Diggs will certainly get his share, but past him there’s little in the way of proven production. Though it’s largely assumed Gabriel Davis (more on him below) will be the secondary beneficiary, Crowder should be firmly in the mix as a direct replacement for the departed Cole Beasley. While he’s been held back by atrocious quarterback play, Crowder still managed three seasons with 50+ catches on the Jets, including a high water mark of 78-833-6 in 2019. In the 17th round as a WR8, the 29-year-old could and should provide excellent dividends relative to cost.

Sell: Gabriel Davis, WR (ADP = 73.0, Rank = 95.4)

In his 2021 sophomore season, Davis corralled 35 receptions for 549 yards and six scores, which actually represented a minor downturn from his rookie season. Then in January of this year, he torched the Chiefs for 201 yards and four touchdowns, which caused a two-round spike in his ADP (after jumping 50 spots from December 2021 to January 2022). Davis is young and has good size, but is now being drafted as the WR38 after only having accrued around 1,100 career yards. While he may indeed break out in year three, this fairly inorganic rise may present a window to sell and gain value (notably, he is ranked approximately two rounds lower by DLF staff as compared to his ADP).

Hold: Dawson Knox, TE (ADP = 118.7, Rank = 122.4)

Knox finished the 2021 season as the PPR TE11, largely on the back of his nine receiving scores which actually tied for the lead amongst tight ends league-wide. Knox also set career highs for targets, receptions, and yards, while 200 more snaps than he had any other year. Currently valued as the dynasty PPR TE11, Knox’s real-life value effectively mirrors his fantasy standing. With the target void as noted above, and with early returns having him well ahead of off-season signee OJ Howard, there’s potential for Knox to continue making strides.

Miami Dolphins

Buy: Raheem Mostert, RB (ADP = 216.8, Rank = 189.3)

Is the Dolphins running back room beyond convoluted? Sure. Even if only three of Mostert, Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin make the team, it’s a lot of mouths to feed. In such a scenario, I’ll typically go with the cheapest commodity, which in this case is Mostert who checks in as the RB67 per the ADP. However, and while noting it’s on a limited sample size, he’s easily the most explosive of the three with career numbers of 5.7 YPC and 10.0 YPR. Nominal starter Chase Edmonds has yet to show he can function as anything other than a change-of-pace running back, and we shouldn’t assume he’ll be handed the reigns, especially given Mostert’s history with new coach Mike McDaniel. If Mostert can siphon off snaps and touches, a finish as a PPR flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Sell: Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP = 22.7, Rank = 17.7)

To be clear, this isn’t an assertion that Hill is anything other than a likely WR1 for your team. However, despite the off-season assertions to the contrary, he’s entering a decidedly worse situation in Miami. Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and Tua Tagovailoa remains unestablished. Additionally, with receiver Jaylen Waddle, tight end Mike Gesicki, and multiple running backs who can catch passes, it’s not unreasonable to suggest Hill has entered a more crowded depth chart. At 28 years old, Hill can’t afford to suffer through a lost season if Tagovailoa isn’t the answer, or a potentially protracted rebuild that might follow. Given this, a potential trade could yield assets with similar upside and better stability.

Hold: Mike Gesicki, TE (ADP = 115.0, Rank = 121.4)

As the PPR TE10 by ADP and TE9 in 2021 by points, Gesicki’s story looks a lot like Knox’s as detailed above. Unfortunately, unlike Knox his target share (111 in 2021) is likely to be impacted negatively with the addition of Hill and continued growth of Waddle. The Dolphins noted similarly, hitting Gesicki with the franchise tag ostensibly to see how he fits into the new scheme, and if he’s worth a long-term deal moving forward. I would advise owners do the same, and hope he continues to grow with a more offensive-minded head coach.

New England Patriots

Buy: DeVante Parker, WR (ADP = 162.2, Rank = 171.4)

Following his 2019 explosion, Parker has essentially been “just fine” as a fantasy asset, averaging 12.5 PPG in 2020 and 11.5 last season. Certainly both the Dolphins and Parker’s dynasty owners were hoping for more, but it may not be all his fault. In 2020 the Dolphins were just 20th in passing yards and 23rd in passing scores. Last season wasn’t much better, with those numbers at 17th and 21st, respectively. Perhaps Parker could’ve made more of his situation, but this was not a passing offense to fear. The Patriots won’t be construed as a passing juggernaut by any stretch, but they lack star power (Jakobi Meyers is a very good, if not great player), and quarterback Mac Jones arguably showed more in his rookie season than Tagovailoa has yet. As the WR70 by ADP, there’s no downside here.

Sell: Hunter Henry, TE (ADP = 152.2, Rank = 138.9)

To be fair, when not a single Patriot player has an ADP under 100, finding a “sell” candidate is somewhat challenging. I’ve selected Henry because though he’s only going as a mid-range TE2 per the ADP, it’s possible he doesn’t provide return on that. Though notably he finished last season as the PPR TE8, it was on the back of his nine receiving scores on just 4.7 targets per game. In doing so he was the recipient of 37.5% of the team’s passing touchdowns, and he scored once every 5.5 receptions. With the likely unsustainability of that pace, and the addition of Parker and second-round rookie Tyquan Thornton, and finally a likely increase in usage of fellow tight end Jonnu Smith, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Henry fall far below his 2021 production.

Hold: Damien Harris, RB (ADP = 100.5, Rank = 102)

Last year’s PPR RB14, Harris is currently the RB31 by ADP. And while we can likely expect fewer rushing scores than last year’s 15, his usage (202 carries to teammate Rhamondre Stevenson’s 133) appears to be well baked into his cost. New England added a pair of ball carriers in the NFL Draft, but they were later-round picks who don’t seem terribly likely to threaten Harris’ workload. He already doesn’t catch passes (just 18 in 2021), so a receiving drop-off is largely irrelevant, as well. While noting this is personal opinion and conjecture, I view Harris’ role as more firm than someone like Henry noted above, and as such I’d be taking advantage of the discrepancy between his production relative to his ADP.

New York Jets

Buy: Elijah Moore, WR (ADP = 54.0, Rank = 43.7)

As I noted in a recent article, “In just 11 contests in 2021, Moore was able to put forward a respectable 77-538-5 line, with an added 54 rushing yards with one score on the ground. This was despite the Jets only averaging 208 passing yards per game, and 6.6 YPA. Moore’s output was actually enough to lead the team in both yards and receiving touchdowns… Moore will likely still slot in as the number two option in the passing game, and potentially even the 1a. You should buy the dip, if possible.”

Regardless of what rookie Garrett Wilson does, I believe Moore’s place in the passing game is secure, and continue to recommend “buying the dip” on what should be an improved offense.

Sell: Corey Davis, WR (ADP = 163.0, Rank = 150.4)

If there was a definitive loser in the drafting of Wilson, I believe it’s Davis. While it’s notable he was only able to perform in nine 2021 contests, these only yielded a per-week average of 3.8 receptions for 55 yards, with four total scores. Yes, I’m aware those yardage totals are very similar to Moore who I’m recommending as a buy, but Davis was a fifth-year veteran with a big contract, and is graded on a curve accordingly. To me, Davis has now firmly entered “roster-clogger” status, but may yield something (even if just a future draft pick) in return due to his former first round draft status.

Hold: Michael Carter, RB (ADP = 139.7, Rank = 115.4)

Was Carter the biggest loser of the Jets’ draft night? Unequivocally. But the selection of Breece Hall has affected Carter’s value accordingly, as he’s slotting in as a low-end RB4. And considering he managed to accrue nearly 1,000 total yards with 37 receptions and four scores, I don’t believe he’s going to go quietly into the night solely due to Hall’s presence. Even if Carter winds up as a change of pace or 1b running back, that should be enough to return value relative to his ADP. Even if Hall secures the bulk of the load, Carter has shown himself to be clearly talented, and is just 23 years old. He’s going to have an NFL future, regardless.

The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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