2022 NFL Draft: Rookies Who Landed in the Worst Situations for Dynasty Leagues
As dynasty managers know, landing spot and draft capital are crucial to any rookie’s success. Last year, I wrote both the best situations and the worst situations articles, and I really enjoyed putting them together. However, in 2021, we knew a lot more about landing spots before the NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson were locks at first and second overall, the 49ers were taking a quarterback at third overall, and the Falcons and Bengals had constant links to Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase, respectively.
But this year, the NFL Draft was far more wide-open, as there were no top-tier prospects at any fantasy-relevant position. Therefore, it was far more challenging to predict landing spots, although draft capital fell similarly to what I expected. Interestingly, it felt like there were far more good landing spots than bad ones, but I’ve picked out five players who fell into tough situations. Let’s jump into it!
Jahan Dotson, WR WAS
Dotson had an interesting landing spot, as the Commanders traded up for him and drafted him 16th overall. I never expected him to go that high in the NFL Draft, and I projected him as a second-round pick beforehand. But even though he received excellent draft capital, his landing spot on the Commanders could not be any worse.
Starting quarterback Carson Wentz reached a new low in 2021, averaging only 209.6 passing yards per game. The Commanders also drafted all-around running back Brian Robinson in the third round to add to Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic, signaling an intent to run even more in 2022. The Colts’ 2021 offense likely serves as a template for the Commanders’ 2022 offense.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Of course, the Commanders don’t have Jonathan Taylor in their backfield. Still, McKissic is a decent approximation for Nyheim Hines, and Gibson and Robinson combined may be able to approach Taylor’s production. As you can see, the Colts and Wentz failed to support any relevant receivers beyond Michael Pittman, as everyone else had only scraps. While Dotson is a better player than any of the Colts’ secondary weapons, he also has superior competition from Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas. With Wentz, I fully expect the Commanders’ offense to look like this one, with Terry McLaurin as the only usable fantasy receiving weapon.
However, I wouldn’t completely dismiss Dotson in rookie drafts because his immediate landing spot is terrible. McLaurin and the Commanders haven’t agreed on an extension yet, and his contract expires after this year. The Commanders can also escape Wentz’s contract after 2022, taking zero dead cap. First-round wide receivers essentially always get an opportunity for targets eventually, and Dotson is a talented player. He may represent a good value in rookie drafts if he drops too far down the board.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR NYG
I find Robinson to be somewhat similar to Dotson. He went far higher in the NFL Draft than I expected, landing at 43rd overall to the Giants. However, like Dotson on the Commanders, I hate Robinson’s landing spot on the Giants. Daniel Jones has yet to support a genuinely fantasy-relevant wide receiver, and the Giants have a crowded wide receiver room with Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Robinson. This pick made more sense when it seemed like the Giants were going to trade Toney away, but now I struggle to see how the Giants’ offense will accommodate all these wide receivers.
Luckily, Robinson has an impressive college production profile that could translate well to today’s NFL.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He saw usage both on the ground and through the air during his time at Nebraska, although he was mostly a pure wide receiver after transferring to Kentucky for the 2021 season. In 2021, he more than doubled the production of the next-highest receiver in both yardage and receptions in an impressive showing. He’s also an early-declare wide receiver who will be 21 years old for his entire rookie season. Therefore, I would still draft Robinson in rookie drafts, but he’s more of a long-term bet. The Giants could move on from Jones, Shepard, and Golladay after 2022, leaving Robinson in a far superior situation in a year.
Malik Willis, QB TEN
I could have included Matt Corral, Sam Howell, and Desmond Ridder in this article alongside Willis, as I expected all four of those quarterbacks to get at least second-round draft capital. However, I felt writing about all of them would be slightly repetitive, so I decided to highlight Willis. Of the four players, Willis seemed like the most first-round lock, and I can’t believe he fell to the 86th overall pick to the Titans.
Worst of all, only Willis landed on a team with an incumbent franchise quarterback. Ryan Tannehill may not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but he’s led the Titans to three straight playoff appearances, two playoff wins in 2019, and the AFC’s top overall seed in 2021. He has a 30-13 record as the Titans’ starter, and he remains under contract through 2023.
I could easily see the Panthers turning to Corral over Sam Darnold in 2022, and I would make similar arguments for Desmond Ridder over Marcus Mariota in Atlanta and even Howell over Carson Wentz on the Commanders. However, the only way Willis sees the field in 2022 is if Tannehill suffers an injury. I don’t even believe the Titans intend Willis to be their next franchise quarterback. He seems like more of an insurance policy for Tannehill and a potential long-term backup. Based on this landing spot, Willis plummeted from the 1.01 or 1.02 overall pick in superflex rookie drafts down to a mid-to-late second-round value.
Jerome Ford, RB CLE
I liked Ford as a prospect before the NFL Draft, but he found himself buried in the worst landing spot imaginable on the Browns. It’s a shame, as he had a solid college career.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He transferred from Alabama to Cincinnati in 2020 in search of more playing time. In his first year there, he split time with future seventh-rounder Gerrid Doaks. He had more touchdowns on almost half the carries and recorded a far higher 6.6 YPC.
But then, in 2021, Ford broke onto the scene, taking 215 carries for 1,319 yards and 19 touchdowns. He also displayed some receiving upside with 21 receptions for 220 yards and a touchdown. Most impressively, he maintained strong efficiency even on massively increased volume, which doesn’t usually happen for college running backs.
Unfortunately, none of that college success matters now. The Browns have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt entrenched at the top of the depth chart. Even if they cut or trade Hunt to save his $6.25 million salary, D’Ernest Johnson is their clear RB3, as they retained him with a $2.43 million restricted free agent tender. When selecting day three running backs, a path to playing time is the most critical factor, so Ford is essentially entirely off my radar in rookie drafts.
Greg Dulcich, TE DEN
Dulcich improved throughout his career at UCLA, eventually blossoming into a strong receiving option.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He didn’t show much as a receiver in 2018 and 2019, but he led UCLA in receiving yards in 2020 and finished second in 2021 behind fifth-round pick Kyle Philips. After Jalen Wydemyer’s horrific NFL Combine, Dulcich became my dynasty TE2 in this class, only behind Trey McBride. I expected him to fall in the third round, where many tight-end needy teams like the Colts could snap him up.
Unfortunately, the Colts went a different direction, selecting Jelani Woods ahead of Dulcich. Therefore, Dulcich fell seven picks later, landing on the Broncos. While the Broncos might seem like a decent landing spot with Russell Wilson at quarterback, they are just too crowded for a rookie tight end to make any impact. They recently extended Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton to long-term deals, and they have Jerry Jeudy on his rookie contract.
Dulcich still has to compete with Albert Okwuegbunam for snaps, so now he’s just the backup. Additionally, the Broncos still have second-rounder KJ Hamler on the roster, giving them one of the best WR4s in the NFL. I highly doubt they run much 12 personnel with their depth chart, meaning that Dulcich has to overtake Okwuegbunam for playing time directly. I wouldn’t say it’s hopeless for Dulcich, but I wish he’d landed on the Colts instead of Woods.
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