Rookies Who Landed in the Best Situations
As dynasty managers know, landing spot and draft capital are crucial to any rookie’s success. This year, many rookies received some pretty brutal landing spots. However, there were a few exceptions who fell into perfect situations or at least far better situations than most dynasty managers expected. Let’s jump into it!
As an author’s note, I excluded both Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson from consideration for either the best or worst situations, as we’ve essentially known their landing spot for months.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
I don’t want to spend too much time on Chase, as dynasty managers know that he is a top prospect in this class. Almost everyone had Chase as their pre-draft WR1, and he was the first receiver off the board to the Bengals at fifth overall. He reunites with his college quarterback, Joe Burrow, and those two formed a lethal combination during LSU’s magical 2019 season. Chase had 84 receptions, 1,780 yards, and 20 touchdowns in 2019, leading all FBS players in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
I expect Chase to immediately supplant both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the Bengals’ high-powered offense, becoming a WR2 in his rookie season. While Higgins is a solid receiver and Boyd is a good player, Chase is simply different. He became my 1.01 rookie pick in 1 QB leagues with this landing spot, ahead of running backs Najee Harris and Travis Etienne and tight end Kyle Pitts. Additionally, I love the Chase pick for Burrow’s fantasy value, especially after the Bengals selected an offensive tackle in round two to make up for passing on Penei Sewell in favor of Chase.
Trey Sermon, RB SF
There’s no doubt that Sermon received the most significant boost from his situation of any running back in the NFL Draft. Only four running backs went on days one and two, and the other three were the clear top three backs in the class anyway. However, Sermon was my RB8 pre-draft, and he’s now the RB4 without any doubts.
The 49ers selected Sermon with the 88th overall pick in the third round of the NFL Draft, where he joins a backfield consisting of Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Wayne Gallman, and fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell. While Mostert, Wilson Jr., and Gallman are fine players, they don’t possess the same upside as Sermon. If Sermon can claim the lead-back role in a Kyle Shanahan offense, the sky’s the limit.
Of course, Shanahan does tend to rotate his running backs, as Mostert, Wilson Jr., Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and JaMycal Hasty all saw starter’s snaps at points during the 2020 season. But Shanahan has never had a true workhorse back in his time as the 49ers’ coach, with Carlos Hyde’s 2017 effort serving as the closest model. Hyde received 240 carries and 88 targets that season, so there is a precedent for Shanahan using a prototypical lead back system. Lastly, the 49ers also drafted Trey Lance third overall, which adds immense long-term upside to the entire offense.
Trey Lance, QB SF
Speaking of Lance, he’s the next rookie who landed in a perfect situation. The 49ers not only picked him at third overall, but they traded two future first-rounders to move up from 12 to three for the right to select him. Therefore, they felt that Lance was a difference-maker who would bring a new dimension to their offense, especially compared to incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo.
I just discussed how I believe that Shanahan is an excellent offensive coach who will provide fantasy value for Sermon because he schemes an impressive rushing offense.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
As you can see, Lance delivered 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground in his one full college season at North Dakota State. Shanahan will take full advantage of Lance’s rushing skills, and there’s no coach I would prefer for Lance’s fantasy value.
On top of Shanahan, Lance also falls into an offense with star tight end George Kittle and two young receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Kittle is an excellent safety blanket for a young quarterback, while Aiyuk should grow into a true alpha receiver in year two. Samuel can also provide a short-area target to complement the other two major players.
Therefore, Lance has the perfect coach, excellent weapons, substantial draft capital, and an improved running game with Sermon added. Lance immediately vaulted above all non-quarterbacks in superflex rookie drafts. At this point, he’s in a battle for the 1.02 spot with Justin Fields behind Trevor Lawrence. While I slightly prefer Fields right now, I couldn’t fault anyone for selecting Lance ahead of him. Lance is my QB11 overall in dynasty formats.
Dez Fitzpatrick, WR TEN
I barely even knew who Fitzpatrick was before the NFL Draft. He played his college ball at Louisville, alongside the higher-profile Tutu Atwell, who went in the second round.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Fitzpatrick had a decent four-year career at Louisville, although he rarely stood out from the pack. He led the team in receiving yards in 2020, but that was his best year. He was behind other targets on the team in the other years, including Atwell in 2019 and Jaylen Smith in 2017 and 2018. I didn’t expect Fitzpatrick to get drafted, at least not until the sixth or seventh round.
However, the Titans decided to select Fitzpatrick with the 109th overall pick in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He went ahead of many far popular receivers in the dynasty community, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tylan Wallace, and Seth Williams, as well as other notables like Tamorrion Terry and Jaelon Darden. The Titans had a highly questionable draft class, where they failed to add significant receivers to their receiving weapons. They also picked Racey McMath in the sixth round, who I had never heard of before the draft.
Right now, AJ Brown is the Titans’ clear top receiving weapon, but they haven’t replaced Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith, who left in free agency. Davis and Smith finished with 92 and 65 targets respectively in 2020, second and third on the Titans. Anthony Firkser will replace Smith as the lead tight end, but he had 53 targets on his own last season, and I certainly don’t expect him to absorb all of Smith’s work. The Titans did sign Josh Reynolds in free agency, but he won’t approach Davis’ 92 targets, as he had a career-high 81 targets in 16 games last season.
Therefore, it’s impossible to deny that Fitzpatrick has a clear path to the Titans’ WR2 role and even their second receiving option behind Brown. He’s not a strong prospect, and I don’t recommend overdrafting him. But in the third or even the fourth round, it’s challenging to find a player with an immediate opportunity like Fitzpatrick has. He landed in the best situation of any under-the-radar player by a wide margin.
Cornell Powell, WR KC
Unlike Fitzpatrick, Powell played at Clemson, so I was familiar with him before the NFL Draft. However, he played five years at Clemson, and he did essentially nothing until the 2020 season.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He was entirely irrelevant from 2016-2019, despite playing with Trevor Lawrence in 2018 and 2019. But in 2020, Tee Higgins left for the NFL, and Justyn Ross had medical issues, leaving an opening behind Amari Rodgers for Powell to have a role in the offense. He managed to put up decent numbers, finishing second behind Rodgers in receptions and yards and tying for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. Powell is already 23 years old, though, so he has an extremely late breakout, which makes him a terrible analytical prospect.
Luckily for Powell, the Chiefs picked him in the fifth round. Any receiver in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense immediately gains dynasty intrigue, even if he was only a day three selection. The Chiefs let Sammy Watkins walk in free agency, and Mecole Hardman hasn’t established himself as the WR2 behind Tyreek Hill. He has a path to playing time, which all dynasty managers should want from a day three wide receiver. He will gain dynasty value if he flashes, presenting a selling window, which I would recommend taking. But sometimes, value, not production, is the goal, and Powell has an excellent opportunity for value.
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