A View From the 1.09: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now just mere hours away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this 12-part series, we will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, we’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12-team PPR, one-QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
1.09
The Pick: Rondale Moore, WR
The diminutive Purdue wide receiver showed true explosive play-making ability as a freshman, totalling over 1,200 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Between injury and COVID holdout, we didn’t get to see enough of him over the next two seasons. Then, his pro day happened and we were all reminded of how truly explosive this young man can be.
He posted a 4.29-second 40-yard dash and had a 42.5-inch vertical jump. The gaps in his college playing career and his size are the most common negatives that follow Moore around. He has the skill set to be a dangerous weapon on the right offense.
Possible Pivots
Should the lack of overall collegiate production scare a potential manager off, there are a couple of reasonable pivots in this range. Terrace Marshall is the first that comes to mind, followed by running back Kenneth Gainwell.
Trade Value
- 1.09, 1.11 for Courtland Sutton, 2.02, and 2023 second-round pick.
- 1.09, Joshua Kelley and AJ Dillon for Deebo Samuel and 1.12
- 1.09, 1.10, 2.01 for Jonathan Taylor
Superflex Option: Javonte Williams, RB
With several quarterbacks expected to be off the rookie board early, Williams becomes a nice potential pick in this range.
2.09
The Pick: Kadarius Toney, WR
A versatile and athletic option, Toney had a fantastic senior season in Florida. He finished with 1,145 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. While his thin build makes him less likely to gain extra yards in traffic, he has enough short-yardage burst to accelerate through a few extra yards in space.
Toney can be utilized in a variety of ways as a receiver, sweep style carries, or as a return man. His ability to hit nearly full speed off the line makes him an intriguing option for offenses who can creatively use the depth of his toolbox.
Possible Pivots
The easiest possible pivot in this range is Dyami Brown. However, if a manager is looking to add some depth at running back, Trey Sermon slides into this range as well.
Trade Value
- 2.09 and 3.06 for James White and Nelson Agholor
- 2.09, D’Andre Swift, and Deebo Samuel for Daniel Jones, Will Fuller, and CeeDee Lamb
- 2.09 and 1.10 for 2022 first-round and 2022 second-round picks
Superflex Option: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
Had his play continued to elevate in the same fashion into his junior season, we would be talking about Amon-Ra St. Brown as a much higher draft prospect. As it stands, he has still shown a solid core of skills that should make him a reliable playmaker at the next level.
3.09
The Pick: Nico Collins, WR
Michigan wide receiver Collins plays old-school, big-boy football. The 6’4” receiver uses some physicality to gain some separation and displays strong hands. While not a tactical route runner, he can play the possession role and is not afraid of making catches in traffic. He should translate as a reliable possession-style receiver who can play physically to get the job done.
Possible Pivots
In this range, other possible pivots are Tutu Atwell and Tamorrion Terry. The range here will likely be dependent on landing spot as Collins seems likely to be a role player depending on offensive scheme and need.
Trade Value
- 3.09, 1.08, Jalen Hurts for 1.05
- 3.09 for 3.12 and 4.11
- 3.09 for Antonio Gandy-Golden
Superflex Option: Tamorrion Terry, WR
Representing the boom-or-bust category, Terry and Cam Akers were the focal point of an otherwise slim Seminoles offense in 2019. Terry’s dynasty value seems hinged on landing spot and potential usage.
4.09
The Pick: Kyle Trask, QB
Former Florida quarterback Trask has shown flashes of solid play that bloomed to a prolific senior season. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 43 touchdowns to close out his collegiate career. He shows intelligence and accuracy when protected and can escape and buy time to make a throw when the pocket collapses.
Despite his numerous upsides, Trask’s lack of mobility or NFL-level deep ball arm strength will likely relegate him to competing for a backup, developmental role to begin his NFL career.
Possible Pivots
The two immediate potential pivots in this range are running back Pooka Williams and wide receiver Jonathan Adams.
Superflex Option: Pooka Williams, RB
Williams has some special traits that lump him into a wild-card type of category among the other running backs in this class. His acceleration through a hole is lightning fast and he adds some hard-cut agility. However, size and weight concerns may lump him into a change-of-pace kind of role in the NFL.
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- January Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - January 31, 2024
