February Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers
Dynasty ADP is an ever-changing construct, and each position has its own variance and nuance. Some trends, however, do hold typically similar. Younger players rise while older players fall, to an extent.
The ADP reflected is the latest February data for a 12-team, single-quarterback startup. This new batch of ADP data now includes the incoming rookies, so some of the changes will be making space for them.
Over the next few weeks and months, we will have free agency and then the NFL Draft. Expect many changes to occur in those periods.
Let’s jump right into the data.
Visualization
Risers
Nick Chubb, RB CLE +29.67
After being the gruesome headline of week two last season, Chubb landed on injured reserve. His dislocated knee and torn MCL required surgery, which ended up showing a tear to his ACL as well, which required a second surgery. He missed 15 games leading to a significant drop in his ADP.
When healthy, Chubb has been one the best running backs for fantasy over the last several seasons, finishing as an RB1 in three of his six seasons and RB13 and RB16 respectively in two others.
Despite his talent and toughness, the gradual rise in ADP shows the market might be slightly more optimistic about his availability for his age-28 season. Multi-ligament tears are often more complex to return from, leaving his realistic timetable uncertain for the start of the 2024 season. We’ve seen players like JK Dobbins have difficulty when returning from complex ligament tears. Even if Chubb is available, how much will recovery hamper his production?
It’s worth noting that while Chubb’s ADP has risen 29 spots, backup Jerome Ford’s has fallen 31 spots. With free agency and the NFL Draft looming, Ford seems like a value pick currently.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN +37.66
