Dynasty Danger: Dalvin Cook
One of the most important parts of succeeding in dynasty leagues is getting out from under dying assets before the bottom falls out. Even though some of these players have already declined in value, I believe they will suffer a further decline shortly. It can be challenging to sell veterans at this time of year, but I want to put these players on your radar at least. Dynasty managers may want to consider moving on sooner rather than later. If you want to read my previous articles in this series, I’ve included them at the bottom of this piece.
This time, I want to look at a highly-valued asset who I think is at the end of his high-value window in dynasty leagues, Dalvin Cook. This might be a controversial take, but I truly believe now is the time to sell. I recently sold him in one of my dynasty leagues, so I’m practicing what I preach here. With that said, let’s jump into it!
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
I want to get something clear right up top. Cook is a fantasy stud, and he makes a difference for your fantasy rosters when he is on the field. I’m not going to pretend that he is anything less than that in this article. However, dynasty fantasy football is a long-term game, and now is the optimal time to move on from Cook.
Career Statistics
Cook opened his career vaulting to the top of the Vikings’ depth chart, ahead of veterans Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. He averaged 18.5 carries per game in his first four career contests, before tearing his ACL in week four of that 2017 season. He flashed insane talent, but unfortunately we didn’t truly get to see what he could do over a full season.
Then, in year two, Cook struggled to return to form after his ACL tear, going in and out of the lineup. He averaged only 12.1 carries/game, far fewer than his rookie year. Murray actually out-carried him for the season, 140 to 133.
Luckily, in 2019, he finally mostly put it together for a full season. He played the first 14 games, averaging 17.9 carries/game. He also evolved in the passing game, setting career-highs with 53 receptions and 519 receiving yards.
Most notably, in 2020, he went beyond his 2019 performance, jumping to true workhorse levels. He averaged an incredible 22.3 carries per game, and he added efficiency on top of his massive workload. He recorded an excellent 5.0 YPC and set a new career-high in fantasy points per rushing opportunity.
Chart courtesy of DLF player scoring history app.
As you can see, Cook evolved into a hyper-efficient player in 2019 and 2020, jumping to new heights despite the high volume. That combination is quite rare, as typically, efficiency plummets when volume increases. Outside of his injury history, there’s little negative to say regarding his statistical record.
Future Situation
Cook also comes with an apparently ideal future situation. The Vikings recently extended him to a five-year, $63 million deal, which begins in the 2021 season. Of course, the reported total is never the relevant number with contracts, but the Vikings cannot easily escape this agreement until after the 2022 season. At that point, they could release him, saving approximately $8 million in cap space with about $6 million in dead cap.
The Vikings also have Kirk Cousins under contract through 2022, so they seem invested in the Cousins-Cook duo through that time. Alexander Mattison’s rookie deal also expires after the 2022 season, plus Adam Thielen’s contract guarantees are mostly up at that same time. Essentially, the Vikings have positioned themselves for a two-year window, with centerpieces Cook, Cousins, and Thielen under contract and Mattison, Irv Smith Jr, and stud young receiver Justin Jefferson on cheap, rookie deals.
Now, I understand what you might be thinking at this point. Everything about Cook’s career and statistical profile suggests he’s an absolute stud. If that’s the case, why is he a ‘Dynasty Danger’ player? Well, there are three main reasons. First, he has never played an entire 16-game season. He’s missed games every year, often relating to the same knee and shoulder injuries.
Also, dynasty running backs usually fade from the top around year five, even when it seems like they have a perfect situation. Cook does turn 26 years old in August, so he could decline at any time. Remember that Todd Gurley was the dynasty 1.01 in November 2018 and has little to no value now. And lastly, it’s all about Cook’s trade and ADP costs. I wouldn’t hate having him on my dynasty team, but not at his current price. Let’s get into him from a value perspective.
ADP and Trade Value
In March’s DLF 1QB ADP, Cook was the fifth player selected with an ADP of 5.33 overall.
He has been a clear top-ten startup pick since November 2019, when he jumped into the top ten for the first time in his career. Since then, he’s made the top ten in every single month of DLF’s ADP, which is an incredible track record. But as I referenced earlier, high ADP value is no guarantee of future dynasty value. Let’s look at Gurley’s ADP graph.
Gurley too remained in the top ten for years, but he dropped so quickly once injuries caught up to him, and he wasn’t the same player anymore. There’s no guarantee that the same thing will happen to Cook. But it’s just a reminder that selling an aging running back at peak value often pays off. Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder for some examples of good returns in exchange for Cook.
Here, the Cook manager sent him and Mattison for Cam Akers, Sony Michel, and a 2022 first-round pick. I don’t find Michel and Mattison to be particularly significant, but I love Akers’ potential. He’s almost four years younger than Cook, and that side received a future first-rounder. This return is excellent.
Similar to this trade, I recently dealt Cook in Trade Addicts 8 for Akers, 3.04, 2022 second, and a 2023 first. I know that first-rounder is far away, but I got a second in 2022 and a third-rounder this year. Plus, Akers is the type of running back I love to build around. I’m ecstatic with the return I received.
Here’s another Cook deal that I love for the side selling him. Here, the Cook manager received Allen Robinson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire for Cook, 3.07, and 3.09. Edwards-Helaire is a promising young running back with potential, and Robinson is a stud receiver. Over time, Cook’s value will decline along with Robinson’s, but Edwards-Helaire’s could increase, as he’s not even 22 years old.
If you’re noticing a pattern, the best deals tend to be selling Cook for a younger running back plus a significant piece. However, that exact type of trade may not be possible in every league. Here’s another option, at least from one of the leagues pulled in the trade finder.
In this trade, the Cook manager pulled off an absolute coup. In a 14 team superflex league, he received Calvin Ridley and Carson Wentz in exchange for Cook. Ridley is one of my favorite up-and-coming receivers. He’s 26 years old already, but he’s far younger on the receiver age curve than Cook is on the running back curve. And in a 14-team superflex league, quarterbacks are vital given the added scarcity, so Wentz carries extra value compared to a normal 12-teamer. Therefore, this return is stellar for Cook, and it’s a perfect way to capitalize on his peak value.
Final Assessment
So what’s the conclusion here? Well, it’s relatively simple. Cook is a stud running back who will be one of the first players off the board in 2021 redraft leagues. Therefore, dynasty managers are correct to value him highly, and he could be a significant part of championship teams in 2021.
However, if you can get peak value for Cook, now is the best time to get out. He will not retain his value as he turns 26 and then 27 years old, and it’s a perfect time to move on to a younger running back in a lower tier, like Akers, Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, or JK Dobbins. There were many substandard returns in the trade finder for Cook, so don’t give him away. But try to find that one manager in your league who’s going all in, and get the haul he should bring. Trust me, you’ll be happy you sold Cook when you look back a year later.
Previous Entries: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
