Dynasty Danger: Players Who Could See the Bottom Fall Out, Part Four
One of the most important parts of succeeding in dynasty leagues is getting out from under dying assets before the bottom falls out. Even though some of these players have already declined in value, I believe they will suffer a further decline shortly. It can be challenging to sell veterans at this time of year, but I want to put these players on your radar at least. Dynasty managers may want to consider moving on sooner rather than later.
I’ve already written three parts in this series. I covered Drew Lock and Devin Singletary in part one, and in part two, I discussed Damien Harris and Darius Slayton. I followed those articles up with an exciting part three on Tyler Higbee and Raheem Mostert before putting the series on a temporary hiatus.
However, if you haven’t realized it already, I don’t like to take a break for too long, so I’m already getting that itch to write part four. I’ve received a bit of feedback on my previous articles, including hearing more about potential trades. I also had some comments suggesting that I should explore some more controversial players, considering that my earlier recommendations were relatively obvious.
With that in mind, let’s jump into my following two players!
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Let me preface this section by saying that I have no issue with Henry as a running back or as a fantasy asset in 2021 specifically. He is a stud, and he should carry a relatively high value in dynasty leagues. But, his current valuation makes absolutely no sense. However, before getting into his dynasty value, let’s take a quick look at his career statistics.
As you can see, Henry served as a committee back in his first three seasons, playing behind DeMarco Murray in 2016 and 2017 before splitting time with Dion Lewis in 2018. But down the stretch in 2018, the Titans decided to finally deploy him as a workhorse, a role he maintained throughout 2019 and 2020.
Henry’s fantasy finish has improved each season: finishing at RB45, RB37, RB16, RB5, and RB3 in his five years in the NFL. Therefore, he has shown no statistical signs of decline, especially considering that he broke 2,000 rushing yards in 2020. The main knock has always been his lack of receiving production, but he managed to finish as a high-end RB1 in each of the previous two seasons anyway.
In February’s dynasty ADP, Henry went with the ninth overall selection and RB6, behind Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. However, he is at least 1.5 years older than all of those players, having turned 27 years old in January. He also went before young stud receivers like AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson, both of whom I would easily select over him.
Running backs don’t hold their value past age 26 in dynasty leagues. After Henry, there are no other running backs older than 26 until Kenyan Drake and Melvin Gordon over seven rounds later. Even if he produces a stellar season in 2021, his dynasty value will decline.
The Titans can also escape his contract after 2021, saving $9 million in cap space and $16.5 million in total money. I’m not saying they will necessarily take their option to release him, but they can certainly do so if he gets injured or suffers a decline in production. Therefore, Henry’s future isn’t as secure as it seems, and he has the potential to take a massive tumble in dynasty value. I’d almost argue that he’s a guarantee to fall in dynasty value over the next year, and it’s just a question of how much.
With that said, trading Henry is challenging in dynasty leagues as he doesn’t carry anywhere near his ADP value in trade talks. Using the DLF Trade Finder, I pulled up a few recent trades involving him.
In that deal, the Henry manager traded for D’Andre Swift, but he needed to include DJ Moore to acquire him. Therefore, the two managers think Swift is worth significantly more than Henry, as Moore has a far higher value than Michael Pittman and a 2021 third-rounder.
Here, we have a trade where Henry went for a 2021 first-rounder, 2022 second-rounder, and 2022 third-rounder. While that’s a relatively hefty price, it certainly isn’t the value of a first-round startup pick unless that 2021 first-round pick is a top-two selection.
Finally, this trade involves Henry and Antonio Gibson, an attractive young running back. Gibson is a nice player, but he’s nowhere near the first-round of dynasty startups. Therefore, these trades show that Henry is not a first-round startup value in current trades. I think most dynasty managers value him as a late second-round startup pick, and his ADP value is higher because there’s a Henry lover or two in each league.
Jalen Reagor, WR PHI
I feel somewhat bad for Reagor because I think he’s a talented player who received a terrible hand in the NFL. The Eagles drafted him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, expecting him to be their top receiver in a Carson Wentz-led offense. Unfortunately, Reagor suffered a shoulder injury in training camp and a thumb injury during the season, limiting him to 11 games.
In those 11 games, he didn’t record impressive statistics, averaging only 36 receiving yards and 2.82 receptions per game. The Eagles’ entire receiving offense suffered under both Wentz and Jalen Hurts. Adam Tzikas covered the Eagles’ entire team in a dynasty capsule, but to summarize, Wentz was horrible during his starts. In contrast, Hurts provided fantasy value with his legs, but he only managed to complete 52% of his passes during his playing time.
The Eagles recently traded Wentz to the Colts, leaving them with Hurts as their 2021 starter. Hurts is a Lamar Jackson-type player, where fantasy managers want the quarterback, but not the receiving weapons. Therefore, I believe all Eagles’ receivers and tight ends will suffer in 2021, no matter who they are.
On top of the quarterback issue, the Eagles will almost certainly bring in another receiver to complement or potentially play ahead of Reagor in 2021. It’s no guarantee, but the Eagles could easily add a receiver like Ja’Marr Chase or Devonta Smith with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They have a strong running back in Miles Sanders and a solid tight end in Dallas Goedert but no significant receivers outside of Reagor.
Dynasty managers also have far less patience than they used to with young receivers. After Justin Jefferson’s 2020 breakout and AJ Brown’s 2019 campaign, dynasty managers expect production in year one, or at worst year two. For the reasons I’ve mentioned above, I don’t believe Reagor will have a good fantasy season in 2021. Therefore, his dynasty value will plummet, even though I think he remains a talented player.
Right now, he is the WR46 and 93rd overall player in February’s newly published DLF ADP data. I didn’t know his February ADP when I began to write this section, and he came in far lower than I thought he would. In January, he was the 64th player selected and WR34. Even after including incoming rookies, I didn’t believe he would drop 29 spots and 12 WR places in ADP.
Unfortunately, his low price means that selling Reagor will be a challenge. But I wouldn’t suggest buying him either. I currently value him between the 1.09 and 1.10 rookie picks in 1QB leagues, which likely makes him a hold. However, I would suggest attempting to find a ‘truther’ in your league, as his trade value will likely decline over the next year for the reasons I mentioned earlier.
These two recent trades for Reagor show a wide disparity in his trade value. He essentially went for Rashaad Penny straight up in the first deal, which is an insanely low price. Even I would buy into Reagor at that cost, as Penny has little to no value.
But in the second deal, Reagor and Christian Kirk were enough to acquire Brandon Aiyuk, with Collin Johnson thrown in. I’m relatively low on Kirk, but even so, I think Aiyuk is worth more than Reagor and Kirk combined, according to most dynasty managers. The manager acquiring Reagor must be the truther you would want to find in a potential deal. That trade demonstrates that it’s at least possible to return value.
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