Dynasty Accountability: Looking Back on Some Off-Season Misses, Part Two
lIn October, I wrote a dynasty accountability article detailing some of my worst calls from the off-season. I wanted to take ownership over those articles, especially since I published so many pieces for DLF. But, of course, when you write as many articles as I did, you’ll have some pretty bad misses. At this point, I wanted to revisit the five articles I highlighted in my previous piece and see if anything changed over the past couple of months. It’s important to have accountability over time, not just at one point. So let’s jump into it!
Second-Year Leap: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
If you follow me on Ask DLF on the DLF YouTube Channel, my own personal YouTube channel, or Twitter, this section likely seems hard to believe. By now, I’m known as an Edwards-Helaire hater, often calling him “Clyde Edwards-Failure.”
Though, my tone has soured even more on Edwards-Helaire since my original article. Darrel Williams came in and excelled in his place, finding fantasy success.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, the two best fantasy games for a Chiefs’ running back this season both came from Williams, in weeks six and ten. Williams was an RB1 from week six to ten when Edwards-Helaire was out with his ankle injury, demonstrating more receiving upside and superior goal-line ability.
I even took a strong, somewhat controversial stance on the Chiefs’ backfield on Twitter.
Real talk. I think Darrel Williams should remain the Chiefs' starter when Clyde Edwards-Helaire comes back. He's played too well.
— Tyler (@TylerFFCreator) November 15, 2021
Before Edwards-Helaire returned, I suggested the Chiefs should keep Williams as their starter based on his play when Edwards-Helaire was out. However, the Chiefs disagreed with me, creating a 50-50 playing time split. Unfortunately, neither player will be particularly fantasy viable in a split backfield. Ironically, the Chiefs prefer to give Edwards-Helaire more overall touches when both backs are healthy, but they’re more comfortable giving Williams a full workload when he’s alone in the backfield.
Moving forward, it’s clear to me that Edwards-Helaire will never be a fantasy RB1, even in the Chiefs’ potent offense. After this season, Williams is a free agent, but I expect the Chiefs to either re-sign him or sign an even scarier complement like Melvin Gordon or James Conner. The running game has not been a bright spot for the Chiefs, though they’re currently 8-4. In my eyes, there’s no way Edwards-Helaire will ever be a workhorse back, and his situation cannot improve for 2022.
Therefore, I have zero interest in Edwards-Helaire at his DLF RB ranking of RB17 or his ADP value of 42.75 overall. Instead, I rank him almost two rounds later and at RB24. I’m glad I didn’t stick to my old take on Edwards-Helaire, and I very much own that I got this one wrong in the off-season. However, the worst mistake is to double down on a previous error, so I want to avoid doing that here.
2021 Summer Sleeper: Los Angeles Rams
Unlike Edwards-Helaire, nothing changed about my take on Jacob Harris as a sleeper from the Rams. He continued to see no offensive action behind Tyler Higbee, and he landed on injured reserve with an ACL and MCL injury. At this point, I have to close the book on Harris until the off-season, at the very least.
2021 Summer Sleeper: Philadelphia Eagles
Similarly, there’s nothing further to discuss about this take, where I suggested Travis Fulgham as a sleeper candidate. He did land with the Dolphins after my previous article, although he has yet to appear in a game. Fulgham has officially joined the dynasty one-hit-wonder crew.
Second-Year Leap: Bryan Edwards
Unfortunately, this take only has gone further downhill since the original article. I don’t want to discuss Henry Ruggs too much, but he is no longer with the Raiders after his arrest on DUI and other charges. The original article came out after five games, and Ruggs’ release came after week seven, theoretically opening the door for Edwards to see added targets.
However, Edwards hasn’t seen any increase in fantasy value after Ruggs’ release.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
Edwards has lower averages in all receiving categories without Ruggs, and he finally started to lose playing time in recent weeks. Last week, the Raiders used Hunter Renfrow as an every-down player and Zay Jones as their primary outside receiver. Edwards managed to produce something with three receptions for 50 yards on five targets, but he failed to impress.
Despite high snap counts, Edwards has just 25 receptions on 45 targets for 476 yards and two touchdowns thus far in 2021. At this point, I no longer see Edwards as a real dynasty asset. Darren Waller remains the Raiders’ top target in the receiving game, and Hunter Renfrow is the clear second option. Running back Josh Jacobs also has the same 45 targets as Edwards, which means that Edwards is irrelevant.
Moving forward, I expect the Raiders to acquire a true outside WR1 in this offense to complement Waller and Renfrow. They could easily sign someone like Michael Gallup in free agency, rendering Edwards useless. If there’s any way to still get out from under Edwards for any return in dynasty leagues, I would. I got this take horribly wrong, and it’s far worse than when I wrote my previous price.
A Year Ahead
The original article here covered Michael Gallup and Gus Edwards and how they had a chance to rise in value by 2022. Unfortunately, Edwards signed a contract extension in Baltimore soon after that article, preventing him from hitting free agency. Then, Edwards tore his ACL on the eve of the 2021 season, and he won’t return until 2022.
Therefore, absolutely nothing has changed for Edwards since my October update, although it’s clear the Ravens’ rushing attack misses Edwards and JK Dobbins. Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray have plodded their way to 4.2 and 3.3 YPC this year, while Ty’Son Williams can’t even make the game-day roster. I’m fully confident Edwards will reclaim his role as Dobbins’ backup and handcuff for 2022. Even though he won’t ever be a starting running back in the NFL, he might have sneaky fantasy value next year.
However, Gallup’s situation is more interesting. He suffered a calf injury in week one this year, and he hadn’t returned by my October article. At the time, I believed that injury would severely hurt his free agency prospects, as he lost a massive opportunity to showcase his skills. Luckily, once Gallup returned in week ten, he’s looked like the same receiver he was previously.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Gallup had a strong game in the Thanksgiving showcase against the Raiders, leading the Cowboys’ receivers with CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper out. Then in week 13, he caught an excellent goal-line touchdown pass in another island game against the Saints. He retained a significant role in the offense even with Lamb and Cooper back, although Cooper wasn’t 100% healthy.
At this point, it’s clear that the Cowboys want to move forward with Lamb, Cooper, and Dalton Schultz as the center of their offense, leaving Gallup to sign elsewhere in free agency. He faces Washington, the Giants, and Washington over the next three games, which should give him a chance to shine. I fully believe many teams will compete for Gallup’s services as a top outside receiver in free agency, including the Raiders as mentioned earlier and potentially the Bears, Lions, and many others. I may therefore revisit this article once again after he signs his free-agent contract.
Conclusion
The most important lesson from this article is that it’s essential to reevaluate your takes and opinions over time. There’s no point going down on a sinking ship to prove that you’re right because that doesn’t help your readers, listeners, followers, or anybody else. Honestly, I often take some heat for changing my mind too often, but I block out that noise. Fantasy analysis is often a thankless pursuit anyway, especially in today’s Twitter-led world. I always want to be me and do things my way, and the way I handle adjusting to new information and learning over time is no different.
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