Monday Hangover: Week 13
The fantasy football community lost a great person recently when Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros passed away from COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the disease. His shocking and sudden passing has left a huge void behind the scenes in the industry and he leaves behind a beautiful family, including Tabbie (Mike’s wife) and their children, Alyssa (18) and Jonathan (4). Many have rallied to support the Tagliere family and there’s a GoFundMe account set up to do just that. If any of you feel the calling to give, there are few people better to support than “Tags.” He will be missed!
I’m honored to write DLF’s traditional Sunday Six Pack series this year. However, it’s essential to go beyond predicting and discussing what will happen. Therefore, I will look at my storylines from the weekly Six Pack and summarize the results in these Monday Hangover articles. Occasionally, I will also add other important reactions from the week, whether injuries, breakouts, or busts. So let’s jump into it!
Jaylen Waddle’s Meteoric Rise
Once again, Waddle had a fantastic game, catching nine of 11 targets for 90 yards in the Dolphins’ 20-9 win over the Giants. He easily led the Dolphins in receiving yards and catches while tying for the target lead with Mike Gesicki. Given Waddle’s rookie year production and draft capital, he’s now a clear stud dynasty asset. Most notably, Waddle still succeeded this week, even with DeVante Parker returning to the lineup and catching five balls for 62 yards.
Let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for some recent trades involving Waddle.
I didn’t include this trade to say that I would pay this price to acquire Waddle. I most certainly would prefer DJ Moore straight up over him, let alone with second and third-round picks added. However, this trade demonstrates the type of value that Waddle carries. Moore is the WR8 in DLF’s WR rankings, and someone added to him for Waddle.
This price seems relatively reasonable for Waddle at this point, although it’s not clear where the two 2022 first-rounders will land from the trade finder. However, I’m perfectly fine paying two random firsts to acquire him, especially in a 14-team, 1QB league. Waddle is a future superstar, and the 2022 rookie class is relatively weak.
Overall, it’s impossible for me fully to describe how much I like Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa has played better in recent weeks, but imagine if the Dolphins somehow acquire Deshaun Watson in the off-season. Either way, I’m all in on Waddle for the rest of this year and moving forward.
Is Dallas Goedert Overvalued and Overrated?
Well, let’s say that I’m not doing victory laps on this one as I did with Waddle. Goedert had a massive outburst, catching all six of his targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ 33-18 victory against the Jets. It turns out all Goedert needed was a quarterback change, as he seemed like Gardner Minshew’s primary read in this game.
We all know that dynasty value is often narrative-based, and it’s likely that this game represented Minshew’s only start of the season. Jalen Hurts was close to playing with his injured ankle, and the Eagles have a bye next week. The Eagles are firmly in the playoff race at 6-7, and even though Minshew played well, I cannot imagine a quarterback change unless Hurts cannot play due to his injury. If Goedert struggles over the final four games with Hurts, we know what the storyline will be all off-season.
Unfortunately, I cannot reward Goedert for playing well with a different quarterback. I still believe Hurts caps his ceiling, and this game changes nothing for me on that front. I will revisit this storyline when Hurts returns, as the likely outcome remains that he will be the Eagles’ 2022 starting quarterback.
Tyler Johnson’s Opportunity
I’ll avoid wasting too much of your time. Johnson did nothing with his alleged opportunity, catching his only target for five yards in the Buccaneers’ 30-17 win over the Falcons. Tom Brady had 38 completions, 368 yards, and four touchdowns in this game, so it’s tough to give Johnson much of a pass for his performance.
The Buccaneers look likely to move on from Antonio Brown, who I expect never to play in the NFL again after his vaccine fiasco. But even without Brown, the Buccaneers ran their offense through Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, and Rob Gronkowski, all of whom had eight or more targets. Godwin, Fournette, and Gronkowski are all free agents after 2021. Still, I imagine the Buccaneers will find a way to retain all of them to extend Brady’s championship window one more year until 2022.
I wouldn’t flat-out cut Johnson from your dynasty rosters, as I believe he could succeed if there’s an injury to Evans or Godwin. I even think Johnson is a talented wide receiver who could succeed on another team. But for now, he landed on the most loaded roster where he isn’t relevant to their current plans.
James Conner’s Final Showcase Game
Conner had another solid game, taking 20 carries for 75 yards in the Cardinals’ 33-22 win over the Bears. Most impressively, he added two catches for 36 yards and a touchdown, including a ridiculous, one-handed 23-yard catch and run for that touchdown. Eno Benjamin saw little to no work, with two carries for one yard. Wide receiver Rondale Moore also had three carries for two yards.
At this point, I expect Chase Edmonds to return for week 14. Edmonds will likely return to his receiving back role, while Conner remains the goal-line, early-downs, and short-yardage back. However, both Edmonds and Conner are unrestricted free agents after this year. The Cardinals could retain one, both, or neither of the two running backs, depending on how Kliff Kingsbury wants to run his backfield.
Either way, I believe Conner’s worst-case scenario for the 2022 season is a repeat of his 2021 role in this Cardinals’ offense. Some team will give him a decent-sized contract, whether the Cardinals or another club. He was the RB42 in November’s DLF ADP, which seems like a screaming value. Dynasty managers’ primary concern with Conner was his health and injury issues, and he’s answered those questions this season. I expect his value to rise in December’s ADP data, and he’ll be an intriguing buy option for contenders this off-season.
Cole Kmet: Fantasy Asset or Not?
Like Dallas Goedert, Kmet played today with a backup quarterback, Andy Dalton, in this case. He had a decent game, with three receptions on seven targets for 41 yards, but it wasn’t an exceptional performance. David Montgomery led the Bears with nine targets, while Damiere Byrd and Darnell Mooney also had seven. And worst of all, Jimmy Graham caught an 11-yard touchdown, vulturing Kmet again.
None of this offense represents what the Bears will see next year. Matt Nagy won’t be their head coach, Andy Dalton won’t be their quarterback, and they will have a far better top receiver to replace the injured Allen Robinson. I’d say this was an inconclusive game for Kmet’s value, so I see him similarly to how I did coming into it.
Kmet seems like a decent value at TE18 and 149.75 overall in DLF’s November ADP. The DLF Trade Finder also backs up that value.
Ingram might have some nice fantasy value the rest of the season, but he’s not a long-term asset. If this is all Kmet costs, he’s far cheaper than his ADP value. Unfortunately, there weren’t many other trades where Kmet was the main piece, and it’s challenging to examine the value of a throw-in.
Let’s remember that Kmet is still only 22 years old, and he turns 23 in March. Dynasty managers still have hope for Irv Smith Jr, who has similar draft capital and hasn’t done much in three seasons in the NFL. If the market gives up on him this off-season, I will undoubtedly target him in trades and startups.
Dalvin Cook’s Backups
Unfortunately, the Vikings lost this week, giving the Lions their first win in a 29-27 heartbreaker. Alexander Mattison dominated touches, taking 22 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown while catching three passes for 34 yards. In contrast, Kene Nwangwu only had two carries for zero yards and two catches for four yards. He did have two kick returns for 65 yards, but he provided no fantasy value unless you get points for return yards.
I think it’s now evident that the Vikings fully trust Mattison as Cook’s direct backup, and Nwangwu is nothing more than depth, at least for this year. I still like him as a deep stash, but that’s all he is. As for Mattison, I would highly recommend selling him on all non-contending rosters. I don’t see him as a difference-making running back, although he has shown the ability to handle volume.
Once we hit the off-season, Mattison will hold value as Cook’s handcuff, not as a fantasy asset. If you can acquire a first-round rookie pick for Mattison, that’s a smash accept. However, I’m okay taking a couple of second-rounders if I don’t need Mattison over the rest of the 2021 season. But, of course, championships last forever, so if you’re a contender, ride out Mattison this year. Given the Vikings’ loss, I highly doubt they make the playoffs, and they may shut Cook down due to his shoulder injury. If that happens, Mattison could be a league-winner.
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
