Eight Dynasty Buys
Buying, selling and trading, the hallmarks of fantasy football. Buy low, sell high and, not unlike the stock market, do this well and you’ll routinely find long term-success.
Unlike my recent “Dynasty Stashes” article in which I highlighted fringe dynasty players who may be unrostered, this list focuses on those players who have value now but stand to have greater value in the near future. In short, I love buying upside into catalysts that have yet to be fully factored into a player’s value. But that is not to say I will acquire every name on this list. It’s all about moving as little as possible to acquire a target player. Each coach has their own criteria and ranking system and, in many cases, it’s obvious an acquisition of a targeted player isn’t possible because my trade partner has too much premium attached to the name. In that case, I simply move on.
As always, you should be using the DLF Trade Analyzer to determine the market price of the desired targets and seek to get a discount to that value. No trade calculator absolutely defines the value of players, but the good ones estimate the values using a number of different criteria along with a quality algorithm. I can honestly say that the DLF Trade Analyzer is without any question, the the most accurate and it’s the only one I use.
For myself, I tend to target players who the dynasty community have begun to sour on. In many cases, these are recent high rookie draft selections who just haven’t panned out compared to expectations, leaving the drafting coaches frustrated and wanting to dump the asset. I’ve had a lot of luck targeting players in this vein. I also focus on free-agents-to-be. Early into the off-season I look for those who will become free agents in the coming months, seeking to capitalize on player movement that my target coach may not know is coming. Beyond that, I’ll acquire soon-to-be free agent even if it isn’t for another year, with a willingness to simply stash the asset while being patient. The spider, the fly.
Before we get to the list, let me touch upon two more very important aspects of finding acquisition targets. You MUST know the styles and tendencies of the coaches in your league(s). Does a coach value draft picks over all else? Does a coach prioritize veteran production over draft picks? Does a coach seek to have the best starting lineup, foregoing depth or does the coach seek to have significant depth at every position? How does the coach value running backs to wide receivers? You get the picture. As coaches, we each have our own styles and tendencies as to how we like to build our teams. Using these styles and tendencies to formulate trades and acquire players is paramount to saving time and, ultimately, being more successful. When it comes down to it, I know which coaches to largely avoid when trying to trade for an asset.
And let me get this out there right now: Trades do NOT have to be equal to be fair! It’s that simple. I can’t tell you how many times trades have not gone through because the other coach was so focused on the ‘value’ of the trade, regardless as to whether it made his/her team better. I have zero problem with overpaying for players I need if I can move greater analyzer value in return. In most every trade calculator, it’s very easy to load up players on one side of the ledger to make a trade balance out. That’s not what I’m talking about here. When acquiring players, you need to have laser focus on what you’re trying to achieve and if you can move risk assets that may have future value,in return for players who have immediate, or as I like to say known production value now, well, then that is a deal I’ll do even if it doesn’t add up in the trade calculator. This is just a long way of saying, what I care most about is the impact the incoming player will have on my team and weekly scoring. That always trumps what could be in the players I’m sending.
That all said, here are just a few of the names I’m seeking to acquire this off-season:
Alexander Mattison, RB MIN
Age: 23Â Rank: RB35Â ADP: 91
Alexander Mattison isn’t a free agent until 2023 and this alone helps tamp down his value. At the same time, the recent production he’s seen due to injury to Dalvin Cook has highlighted, once again, his potential for the future.
As can be seen above, current value pegs a mid-second round rookie selection in 2022 as equivalent value. All day long! Selection of running backs at the top of a rookie draft is fraught with risk. Give me a young, established and known asset who is about to have a change of circumstance in return for any second round selection and I’ll take that deal nearly every time. It’s always possible a player like Mattison could re-sign with his current team as a backup, but it’s a risk I’d take as long as the value I’m sending isn’t a premium.
I’m buying Alexander Mattison anywhere close to this listed value and would even consider a premium over it.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Age: 22Â Rank: RB18Â ADP: 38
Oh how the mighty have fallen! Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) is a different case and not all my trade targets are well down in our rankings.
CEH was the poster child for rookies who take Twitter by storm, ascending to the top of the rankings on social network fervor, even over his collegiate production. Every year, it’s the same thing for a player or two. Unlike most years, even I got caught up in the fervor and won’t allow myself to do it again. Against my better judgment, I moved CEH above J.K. Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor, but below D’Andre Swift prior to the NFL Draft, and to the top of the rankings following the draft. Not again.
Now fast forward to 2021 and CEH’s value is now all over the map. As seen below, his value still appears to be quite high when looking at the Trade Analyzer. But I’ve already been able to acquire the asset for late-first compensation and, at only 22 years of age, if I’m a competitive team with need at running back, I’ll acquire CEH at a late-first value.
Tony Pollard, RB DAL
Age: 24Â Rank: RB27Â ADP: 80
Pollard, the Cowboys’ dynamic backup behind Ezekiel Elliott, is rising quickly and has already established himself as one of the few consistent production backups at the position. Elliott has clearly lost a step, whether due to an acute issue (injury) or something more chronic and permanent, perhaps a lengthy and heavy workload. In any case, Pollard is on the rise.
Elliott recently signed a six-year contract extension and he’s not a free agent until 2027. But the Cowboys also have an out, if desired, in 2023 though it would incur a somewhat substantial $11.9M dead cap impact. In any case, there has been some talk suggesting Elliott may be on his way out of Dallas which would open the door for Pollard, who is a free agent in 2023 himself. The risk here is in Pollard assuming a role not unlike Kareem Hunt in Cleveland, destined to be a third-down workhorse with limited production on early downs.
At his current Trade Analyzer value, I prefer CEH above due to age and known role, but I’d also suggest Pollard’s late-first value isn’t out of the question as a true reflection of his upside and potential. While I would buy at this current value, especially for competitive teams holding a late-first selection, I’d seek to aggressively acquire at any value in the second round. Players like Pollard with questionable role upside in the near-term are often better traded for veteran players to teams seeking to get younger. As a competitive team, veteran players hold increased value over upside role-players.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
Age: 23Â Rank: WR28Â ADP: 53
Truth be told, I was hoping for Aiyuk’s production to stay muted for a few more games in 2021 though his status as a starting receiver for San Francisco did appear to be threatened, even enough so to make me pause. Aiyuk is one of the 2020 rookies who surprised me with his integration into the NFL and his torrid finish to end his rookie season was even more surprising. Keeping with the trend, I was shocked to see him in the doghouse to open 2022 under mysterious circumstances, only starting to emerge after week six. Once again, the sophomore finished with increasing production though never eclipsed 100 yards in a single game with two games remaining.
I began acquiring a bit early on Aiyuk but seeing his increase into the second-half of 2021, when combined with his declining trade value, has presented an opportunity for acquisition now if the price is right. The Trade Analyzer value below still seems to be at a premium from what I’d be comfortable paying but this is another issue of a coach’s value likely being far different than calculator value. If you can acquire Aiyuk for a late-first or even a high-second round pick, I’d strongly consider it.
The value of Aiyuk, much like Pollard above also presents another opportunity if you can wait until after the NFL Rookie Draft takes place. While rookie draft picks always carry maximum value just prior to the NFL Draft, there’s also an anomaly that occurs as dynasty rookie drafts unfold, especially as we reach the late first round, into the second round. Talent always falls in dynasty rookie drafts which presents a bit of a feeding frenzy for picks in the 9-15 (overall) range. When your draft reaches this point, coaches are more willing to part with fringe talent in order to acquire a selection to be used on a coveted rookie. This is arguably the best time to acquire certain assets like Aiyuk or Pollard above, with wide ranging values into their uncertainty.
Darnell Mooney, WR CHI
Age: 24Â Rank: WR40Â ADP: 70
In my view, Mooney drastically under-performed not because of talent or snaps, but because of rotational quarterback inconsistency in Chicago. The recently-turned 24-year-old possesses speed to burn, is capable at all route depths and is as comfortable taking the top off a defense as he is on short crossing routes which maximize his opportunity to establish space prior to reception, and following.
While Justin Fields continues to develop, Mooney’s value may come under further pressure which will hold his value back. Mooney is not a physical specimen, but should continue to be a dynamic presence in the Bears’ young offense and ultimately perform in similar fashion to Marquise Brown (BAL) with a ceiling potential of Tyreek Hill (KC), the latter being, perhaps, a lofty desire. The Bears need to address the receiver position in the off-season and Mooney would benefit from the addition of a size-specimen at the “X” position, allowing him to excel in route combinations matched with Fields’ mobility.
Seek to acquire Mooney for second-round compensation.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Age: 22Â Rank: WR55Â ADP: 150
I had acquired Donovan Peoples-Jones (DPJ) in as many rookie drafts as possible in 2020. He checks all the boxes except collegiate production on my scouting checklist and that wasn’t his fault. A freak athlete, DPJ wilted in a poor Michigan offense with horrific quarterback play. As the nation’s top player at the position, DPJ fell into anonymity at Michigan, eventually declaring early to enter the NFL.
The Cleveland offense is badly in need of receiving talent and DPJ profiles as a prototypical “X” receiver with the size-speed dynamic to produce as a top target. He does suffer from some focus-drops and is still learning the position but his targets and production are on the rise as he’s now a starter across from veteran Jarvis Landry. His low value could be contested by owning coaches but he’s a player I’m comfortable paying a premium for, as high as a mid-second round selection on his potential and opportunity.
Jalen Reagor, WR PHI
Age: 22Â Rank: WR70Â ADP: 171
For those who follow me, I can hear the outcry now. I was one of the few analysts who were all out on the rookie first-round selection both before the NFL Draft and following it. Reagor was a Twitter darling and too many were trying to make the justification for his star potential based on metrics and production which, in my view, didn’t translate to near-term NFL production. Note that I say “near-term.” That is not to say that Reagor doesn’t have NFL-level talent and potential. Fantasy is a “what have you done for me lately” affair and Reagor’s bandwagon is now nearly empty.
When attacked on Twitter by the masses when I don’t share a common view, I often hear about the NFL scouts being smarter and how I’m blind to certain aspects which portend fantasy and NFL greatness. I get it. But at the same time, my calling cards have always been, and always will be, objectivity and doing my own due-diligence scouting. I’m always accountable to my failures as much as I am to my successes, both are important. What fantasy analysts miss is the fact that NFL teams draft for fit as much as talent. Reagor was drafted in the first-round, 21st overall, as a fit for the short-to-intermediate route tree into his visible dynamic displayed at TCU. That alone, doesn’t suggest fantasy greatness or high ceiling potential. In watching tape of Reagor, it was clear he didn’t separate as many thought he could nor did he square off against the best cornerback talent or press coverage. He’s a slot operator who requires space off the line of scrimmage to operate, at least until he develops. During the Combine, he disappointed in the 40. It came as no shock to me.
I believe the time has come for him as he’ll be entering his third-year in the league. Combine that with his WR70 status and I’ve acquired him for free as a free agent, in a deep-roster league, in addition to third-round value trades and as a toss-in in larger trades. Again, I’m not down on Reagor as an NFL talent, I was down on him as a highly drafted fantasy prospect given his current premium. That has now changed and I’m willing to acquire the former first-round selection for next to nothing in return.
Deshaun Watson, QB HOU
Age: 26Â Rank: QB13Â ADP: 102
This one is a tricky one for me as I have always had a hard time separating fantasy prospects of a player from who they are as individuals. To me, values matter and I’m not talking about player rankings. In that same vein, I’m very careful not to judge an individual too harshly on topics that I have no first-hand knowledge of. It’s all too easy to get caught up in a feedback loop between the two.
The value of Watson is much too low from a fantasy perspective. When viewing his Trade Analyzer value, the thought of acquiring one of the top arm talents in the NFL in return for a third-round selection borders on being ludicrous. Without the overhang of the serious charges against him, any return at current value is a slam dunk trade. The question still lingers as to when Watson will return, but all signs point toward being an eventuality, while there remains a risk that he could still miss part or all of 2022. Ultimate team landing spot will impact his value, that you can be certain of.
Even if Watson settles the cases against him, he still figures to be hit with a lengthy suspension, on the magnitude of eight games if I were to guess. It’s not out of the question that due to the high profile of the charges, he sits for the entire 2022 season. There’s the risk and there’s the catalyst to tamping down his value. Given the lost year of 2021, I’m comfortable acquiring Watson here even with the prospect of him missing significant time in 2022.
Tight Ends & Quarterbacks
Just a quick note about tight ends here as none appear on this list. That is by design but also by survey. When surveying the tight ends, and even quarterbacks, I just don’t see the compelling values needed to appear on this list. Watson being the exception due to extraordinary circumstances, we’ve seen a tremendous amount of quarterback parity this year and the nature of the position doesn’t suggest enough upside from any of the names to use as a catalyst for acquisition. Read that as:Â Too many other quality upside-to-value targets.
As for tight ends, if you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I’m a proponent of fading the position beyond the top four-to-five, almost entirely. Each season unearths a new name who comes from nowhere to be a top-ten player at the position. This year Dawson Knox, one of my listed favorite sleepers and even Zach Ertz surprised. Beyond those two, Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz well out-performed expectations. When surveying the tight end field, nothing compelling jumps out enough for inclusion on this list though multiple are still intriguing fringe-roster additions.
Hope you’ve enjoyed a quick look at some of my top buys as we head into the off-season. Good luck to all of you in your championship games if you’ve been lucky enough to survive the gauntlet to reach it!
As always, be well, be safe and, please, be good to each other!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
- Lineup Advice: Wrap-up, Thank You and Goodbye (TTFN) - January 1, 2024
- Lineup Advice: Week 17 – Championship Edition - December 26, 2023
- Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition - December 19, 2023
Buying, selling and trading, the hallmarks of fantasy football. Buy low, sell high and, not unlike the stock market, do this well and you’ll routinely find long term-success.
Unlike my recent “Dynasty Stashes” article in which I highlighted fringe dynasty players who may be unrostered, this list focuses on those players who have value now but stand to have greater value in the near future. In short, I love buying upside into catalysts that have yet to be fully factored into a player’s value. But that is not to say I will acquire every name on this list. It’s all about moving as little as possible to acquire a target player. Each coach has their own criteria and ranking system and, in many cases, it’s obvious an acquisition of a targeted player isn’t possible because my trade partner has too much premium attached to the name. In that case, I simply move on.
As always, you should be using the DLF Trade Analyzer to determine the market price of the desired targets and seek to get a discount to that value. No trade calculator absolutely defines the value of players, but the good ones estimate the values using a number of different criteria along with a quality algorithm. I can honestly say that the DLF Trade Analyzer is without any question, the the most accurate and it’s the only one I use.
For myself, I tend to target players who the dynasty community have begun to sour on. In many cases, these are recent high rookie draft selections who just haven’t panned out compared to expectations, leaving the drafting coaches frustrated and wanting to dump the asset. I’ve had a lot of luck targeting players in this vein. I also focus on free-agents-to-be. Early into the off-season I look for those who will become free agents in the coming months, seeking to capitalize on player movement that my target coach may not know is coming. Beyond that, I’ll acquire soon-to-be free agent even if it isn’t for another year, with a willingness to simply stash the asset while being patient. The spider, the fly.
Before we get to the list, let me touch upon two more very important aspects of finding acquisition targets. You MUST know the styles and tendencies of the coaches in your league(s). Does a coach value draft picks over all else? Does a coach prioritize veteran production over draft picks? Does a coach seek to have the best starting lineup, foregoing depth or does the coach seek to have significant depth at every position? How does the coach value running backs to wide receivers? You get the picture. As coaches, we each have our own styles and tendencies as to how we like to build our teams. Using these styles and tendencies to formulate trades and acquire players is paramount to saving time and, ultimately, being more successful. When it comes down to it, I know which coaches to largely avoid when trying to trade for an asset.
And let me get this out there right now: Trades do NOT have to be equal to be fair! It’s that simple. I can’t tell you how many times trades have not gone through because the other coach was so focused on the ‘value’ of the trade, regardless as to whether it made his/her team better. I have zero problem with overpaying for players I need if I can move greater analyzer value in return. In most every trade calculator, it’s very easy to load up players on one side of the ledger to make a trade balance out. That’s not what I’m talking about here. When acquiring players, you need to have laser focus on what you’re trying to achieve and if you can move risk assets that may have future value,in return for players who have immediate, or as I like to say known production value now, well, then that is a deal I’ll do even if it doesn’t add up in the trade calculator. This is just a long way of saying, what I care most about is the impact the incoming player will have on my team and weekly scoring. That always trumps what could be in the players I’m sending.
That all said, here are just a few of the names I’m seeking to acquire this off-season:
Alexander Mattison, RB MIN
Age: 23Â Rank: RB35Â ADP: 91
Alexander Mattison isn’t a free agent until 2023 and this alone helps tamp down his value. At the same time, the recent production he’s seen due to injury to Dalvin Cook has highlighted, once again, his potential for the future.
As can be seen above, current value pegs a mid-second round rookie selection in 2022 as equivalent value. All day long! Selection of running backs at the top of a rookie draft is fraught with risk. Give me a young, established and known asset who is about to have a change of circumstance in return for any second round selection and I’ll take that deal nearly every time. It’s always possible a player like Mattison could re-sign with his current team as a backup, but it’s a risk I’d take as long as the value I’m sending isn’t a premium.
I’m buying Alexander Mattison anywhere close to this listed value and would even consider a premium over it.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Age: 22Â Rank: RB18Â ADP: 38
Oh how the mighty have fallen! Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) is a different case and not all my trade targets are well down in our rankings.
CEH was the poster child for rookies who take Twitter by storm, ascending to the top of the rankings on social network fervor, even over his collegiate production. Every year, it’s the same thing for a player or two. Unlike most years, even I got caught up in the fervor and won’t allow myself to do it again. Against my better judgment, I moved CEH above J.K. Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor, but below D’Andre Swift prior to the NFL Draft, and to the top of the rankings following the draft. Not again.
Now fast forward to 2021 and CEH’s value is now all over the map. As seen below, his value still appears to be quite high when looking at the Trade Analyzer. But I’ve already been able to acquire the asset for late-first compensation and, at only 22 years of age, if I’m a competitive team with need at running back, I’ll acquire CEH at a late-first value.
Tony Pollard, RB DAL
Age: 24Â Rank: RB27Â ADP: 80
Pollard, the Cowboys’ dynamic backup behind Ezekiel Elliott, is rising quickly and has already established himself as one of the few consistent production backups at the position. Elliott has clearly lost a step, whether due to an acute issue (injury) or something more chronic and permanent, perhaps a lengthy and heavy workload. In any case, Pollard is on the rise.
Elliott recently signed a six-year contract extension and he’s not a free agent until 2027. But the Cowboys also have an out, if desired, in 2023 though it would incur a somewhat substantial $11.9M dead cap impact. In any case, there has been some talk suggesting Elliott may be on his way out of Dallas which would open the door for Pollard, who is a free agent in 2023 himself. The risk here is in Pollard assuming a role not unlike Kareem Hunt in Cleveland, destined to be a third-down workhorse with limited production on early downs.
At his current Trade Analyzer value, I prefer CEH above due to age and known role, but I’d also suggest Pollard’s late-first value isn’t out of the question as a true reflection of his upside and potential. While I would buy at this current value, especially for competitive teams holding a late-first selection, I’d seek to aggressively acquire at any value in the second round. Players like Pollard with questionable role upside in the near-term are often better traded for veteran players to teams seeking to get younger. As a competitive team, veteran players hold increased value over upside role-players.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
Age: 23Â Rank: WR28Â ADP: 53
Truth be told, I was hoping for Aiyuk’s production to stay muted for a few more games in 2021 though his status as a starting receiver for San Francisco did appear to be threatened, even enough so to make me pause. Aiyuk is one of the 2020 rookies who surprised me with his integration into the NFL and his torrid finish to end his rookie season was even more surprising. Keeping with the trend, I was shocked to see him in the doghouse to open 2022 under mysterious circumstances, only starting to emerge after week six. Once again, the sophomore finished with increasing production though never eclipsed 100 yards in a single game with two games remaining.
I began acquiring a bit early on Aiyuk but seeing his increase into the second-half of 2021, when combined with his declining trade value, has presented an opportunity for acquisition now if the price is right. The Trade Analyzer value below still seems to be at a premium from what I’d be comfortable paying but this is another issue of a coach’s value likely being far different than calculator value. If you can acquire Aiyuk for a late-first or even a high-second round pick, I’d strongly consider it.
The value of Aiyuk, much like Pollard above also presents another opportunity if you can wait until after the NFL Rookie Draft takes place. While rookie draft picks always carry maximum value just prior to the NFL Draft, there’s also an anomaly that occurs as dynasty rookie drafts unfold, especially as we reach the late first round, into the second round. Talent always falls in dynasty rookie drafts which presents a bit of a feeding frenzy for picks in the 9-15 (overall) range. When your draft reaches this point, coaches are more willing to part with fringe talent in order to acquire a selection to be used on a coveted rookie. This is arguably the best time to acquire certain assets like Aiyuk or Pollard above, with wide ranging values into their uncertainty.
Darnell Mooney, WR CHI
Age: 24Â Rank: WR40Â ADP: 70
In my view, Mooney drastically under-performed not because of talent or snaps, but because of rotational quarterback inconsistency in Chicago. The recently-turned 24-year-old possesses speed to burn, is capable at all route depths and is as comfortable taking the top off a defense as he is on short crossing routes which maximize his opportunity to establish space prior to reception, and following.
While Justin Fields continues to develop, Mooney’s value may come under further pressure which will hold his value back. Mooney is not a physical specimen, but should continue to be a dynamic presence in the Bears’ young offense and ultimately perform in similar fashion to Marquise Brown (BAL) with a ceiling potential of Tyreek Hill (KC), the latter being, perhaps, a lofty desire. The Bears need to address the receiver position in the off-season and Mooney would benefit from the addition of a size-specimen at the “X” position, allowing him to excel in route combinations matched with Fields’ mobility.
Seek to acquire Mooney for second-round compensation.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Age: 22Â Rank: WR55Â ADP: 150
I had acquired Donovan Peoples-Jones (DPJ) in as many rookie drafts as possible in 2020. He checks all the boxes except collegiate production on my scouting checklist and that wasn’t his fault. A freak athlete, DPJ wilted in a poor Michigan offense with horrific quarterback play. As the nation’s top player at the position, DPJ fell into anonymity at Michigan, eventually declaring early to enter the NFL.
The Cleveland offense is badly in need of receiving talent and DPJ profiles as a prototypical “X” receiver with the size-speed dynamic to produce as a top target. He does suffer from some focus-drops and is still learning the position but his targets and production are on the rise as he’s now a starter across from veteran Jarvis Landry. His low value could be contested by owning coaches but he’s a player I’m comfortable paying a premium for, as high as a mid-second round selection on his potential and opportunity.
Jalen Reagor, WR PHI
Age: 22Â Rank: WR70Â ADP: 171
For those who follow me, I can hear the outcry now. I was one of the few analysts who were all out on the rookie first-round selection both before the NFL Draft and following it. Reagor was a Twitter darling and too many were trying to make the justification for his star potential based on metrics and production which, in my view, didn’t translate to near-term NFL production. Note that I say “near-term.” That is not to say that Reagor doesn’t have NFL-level talent and potential. Fantasy is a “what have you done for me lately” affair and Reagor’s bandwagon is now nearly empty.
When attacked on Twitter by the masses when I don’t share a common view, I often hear about the NFL scouts being smarter and how I’m blind to certain aspects which portend fantasy and NFL greatness. I get it. But at the same time, my calling cards have always been, and always will be, objectivity and doing my own due-diligence scouting. I’m always accountable to my failures as much as I am to my successes, both are important. What fantasy analysts miss is the fact that NFL teams draft for fit as much as talent. Reagor was drafted in the first-round, 21st overall, as a fit for the short-to-intermediate route tree into his visible dynamic displayed at TCU. That alone, doesn’t suggest fantasy greatness or high ceiling potential. In watching tape of Reagor, it was clear he didn’t separate as many thought he could nor did he square off against the best cornerback talent or press coverage. He’s a slot operator who requires space off the line of scrimmage to operate, at least until he develops. During the Combine, he disappointed in the 40. It came as no shock to me.
I believe the time has come for him as he’ll be entering his third-year in the league. Combine that with his WR70 status and I’ve acquired him for free as a free agent, in a deep-roster league, in addition to third-round value trades and as a toss-in in larger trades. Again, I’m not down on Reagor as an NFL talent, I was down on him as a highly drafted fantasy prospect given his current premium. That has now changed and I’m willing to acquire the former first-round selection for next to nothing in return.
Deshaun Watson, QB HOU
Age: 26Â Rank: QB13Â ADP: 102
This one is a tricky one for me as I have always had a hard time separating fantasy prospects of a player from who they are as individuals. To me, values matter and I’m not talking about player rankings. In that same vein, I’m very careful not to judge an individual too harshly on topics that I have no first-hand knowledge of. It’s all too easy to get caught up in a feedback loop between the two.
The value of Watson is much too low from a fantasy perspective. When viewing his Trade Analyzer value, the thought of acquiring one of the top arm talents in the NFL in return for a third-round selection borders on being ludicrous. Without the overhang of the serious charges against him, any return at current value is a slam dunk trade. The question still lingers as to when Watson will return, but all signs point toward being an eventuality, while there remains a risk that he could still miss part or all of 2022. Ultimate team landing spot will impact his value, that you can be certain of.
Even if Watson settles the cases against him, he still figures to be hit with a lengthy suspension, on the magnitude of eight games if I were to guess. It’s not out of the question that due to the high profile of the charges, he sits for the entire 2022 season. There’s the risk and there’s the catalyst to tamping down his value. Given the lost year of 2021, I’m comfortable acquiring Watson here even with the prospect of him missing significant time in 2022.
Tight Ends & Quarterbacks
Just a quick note about tight ends here as none appear on this list. That is by design but also by survey. When surveying the tight ends, and even quarterbacks, I just don’t see the compelling values needed to appear on this list. Watson being the exception due to extraordinary circumstances, we’ve seen a tremendous amount of quarterback parity this year and the nature of the position doesn’t suggest enough upside from any of the names to use as a catalyst for acquisition. Read that as:Â Too many other quality upside-to-value targets.
As for tight ends, if you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I’m a proponent of fading the position beyond the top four-to-five, almost entirely. Each season unearths a new name who comes from nowhere to be a top-ten player at the position. This year Dawson Knox, one of my listed favorite sleepers and even Zach Ertz surprised. Beyond those two, Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz well out-performed expectations. When surveying the tight end field, nothing compelling jumps out enough for inclusion on this list though multiple are still intriguing fringe-roster additions.
Hope you’ve enjoyed a quick look at some of my top buys as we head into the off-season. Good luck to all of you in your championship games if you’ve been lucky enough to survive the gauntlet to reach it!
As always, be well, be safe and, please, be good to each other!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
- Lineup Advice: Wrap-up, Thank You and Goodbye (TTFN) - January 1, 2024
- Lineup Advice: Week 17 – Championship Edition - December 26, 2023
- Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition - December 19, 2023
