What if? 2022 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Round One

Treylon Burks

Michael Nelson Posted On December 18, 2021

It’s never too early for a rookie mock draft, right?

As the 2021 college season wraps up and players start to declare for the 2022 NFL draft, the next rookie class is starting to take shape. We know who a lot of the top players are, but how do they stack up against each other as NFL prospects? How does potential draft capital and landing spots affect those rankings?

The 2022 class is an interesting one. It is lacking in top-end “elite” talent – there are no Trevor Lawrences or Saquon Barkleys. However, there are a ton of great players who will have good NFL careers. The way I see it, there isn’t much value separating an early first from a late first in rookie drafts.

My buddy Shane Hallam just posted his most recent NFL mock draft over at DraftCountdown. I figured a fun way to get an early look at this class would be to put together a rookie mock draft using Shane’s hypothetical draft positions and landing spots.

A little background on my own process: I mainly use analytics for prospect evaluation. I also am a bit anti-RB (darn injuries), but I respect market values enough to not fade them too much in rookie drafts.

Logistics note: this is for a 12-team superflex league with tight end premiums. Let’s get started.

ROUND ONE

1.01: Matt Corral, QB Ole Miss

Denver Broncos (Round 1, Pick 16)

In my opinion, Corral is the most talented quarterback in the class. He has high-level arm strength, great athleticism, and is a big-time competitor. Fantasy-wise, he won’t be afraid to push the ball down the field and will contribute a decent chunk on the ground as well. Landing in Denver with a great set of weapons waiting for him makes him my favorite asset in the 2022 class, and the 1.01 in this draft.

1.02: Malik Willis, QB Liberty

Washington Football Team (Round 1, Pick 19)

Here’s the deal with Willis – if he goes in the first round to a quarterback-needy team, he will instantly be an elite fantasy asset. He has lots of room to grow as a passer, but he is first-and-foremost an exceptional athlete, and that won’t change in the NFL. Remember, rushing contributions are crucial for fantasy quarterback scoring. Picture Jalen Hurts with the job security of a first-rounder. At 1.02, that’s the ceiling value I am looking for.

1.03: Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas

Los Angeles Chargers (Round 1, Pick 23)

Burks is a special player. His size/speed comb gives him an elite ceiling unmatchable by other prospects in this class. The analytics are phenomenal as well, as he has posted above-average seasons every year he’s been at school, capping it off with his most dominant season this year. I love the thought of pairing him up with Justin Herbert as Keenan Allen gets older and Mike Williams hits free agency.

1.04: Garrett Wilson, WR Ohio State

Cleveland Browns (Round 1, Pick 18)

Wilson feels like such a safe pick. In potentially the most talented wide receiver room in the country, he has put up great age-adjusted production over his three-year career. Wilson is a great route runner with dynamic yards-after-catch ability and speed. He’d be a good fit in any offense and would instantly become Baker Mayfield’s (or whoever is playing QB in Cleveland in the future’s) favorite target.

1.05: Breece Hall, RB Iowa State

Miami Dolphins (Round 2, Pick 41)

The first running back is finally off the board. Hall is likely the best running back in this class. He was extremely productive all three years at Iowa State, posting over 4,500 total yards and 56 touchdowns. Hall is not an elite athlete, but he has good size, decent burst, and great vision. He also is a solid contributor in the passing game. Being picked in the early second round by Miami, who is lacking in backfield talent, will lead to instant volume which will pay off from the 1.05.

1.06: Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh

New Orleans Saints (Round 1, Pick 13)

At this point, Pickett is considered the “safest” quarterback prospect in this class, and goes off the board first in this NFL mock. After four underwhelming seasons at Pittsburgh, he blew up this season, and his draft stock followed suit. He has good size, fantastic pocket mobility, and a solid arm. However, his ceiling is limited because he’s not a big rusher and will already be 24 by the time the season hits. Those keep him from moving to the top of rookie drafts for me. At 1.06, though, he’s well worth it.

1.07: Drake London, WR USC

Kansas City Chiefs (Round 1, Pick 27)

London is a really fun prospect. He moves exceptionally well for his size and was a college basketball player. He was the best WR in the country this year before breaking his ankle halfway through the year. Thankfully, it seems as though the injury won’t be an issue long-term, so I’m not concerned. I love him landing with the Chiefs to give Patrick Mahomes the serious threat opposite Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce they have been severely lacking.

1.08: Isaiah Spiller, RB Texas A&M

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 2, Pick 62)

Spiller is widely considered to be a top two running back in this class, and some consider him to be the top back. I’m not quite there, but I’m still a fan. He’s another big back with good vision and footwork and has been productive over all three years at Texas A&M. Like Hall, he is also a good receiver out of the backfield. In Shane’s mock, he falls a bit, but lands in a great spot in Tampa, and could instantly fill pending free agent Leonard Fournette’s three-down role.

1.09: Sam Howell, QB North Carolina

Detroit Lions (Round 1, Pick 24)

Howell is a bit polarizing. After two prolific seasons to start his career, he struggled more in year three with significantly less talent around him. However, he did demonstrate this year that he can also be a serious threat on the ground. In this mock, going in the late first to a team where he likely isn’t set up very well for success gives me concern, which is why he falls to the 1.09.

1.10: Kenneth Walker III, RB Michigan State

Seattle Seahawks (Round 2, Pick 40)

Walker exploded onto the scene this year at Michigan State after two average seasons at Wake Forest. He was one of the Heisman favorites before fizzling out a bit down the stretch. He runs with incredible patience and vision, and breaks tackles with ease with his contact balance. However, I have concerns about the lack of receiving work, which is so important for an RB to be an elite fantasy asset. I also tend to fade guys who only posted one year of high-level production. That being said, he simply can’t drop lower than 1.10, especially since he lands in Seattle with Pete Carroll, who simply must establish the run.

1.11: David Bell, WR Purdue

New Orleans Saints (Round 2, Pick 44)

Bell is the analytics darling of this class. He has dominated college football from the moment he arrived at Purdue. 80% of wide receivers with similarly dominant profiles drafted in the top two rounds have gone on to have at least one top 24 fantasy season in the NFL. While not the most explosive athlete, he is a good route runner and great at the catch point, and I would expect him to continue the trend. Landing with the Saints in the early second is as good of a spot as it gets.

1.12: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama

Las Vegas Raiders (Round 1, Pick 14)

After spending two very quiet years at Ohio State behind Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in the pecking order, Williams transferred to Alabama and very quickly proved he is one of the best wide receivers in the country. He has exceptional speed that is unmatched by any other in this class. The match with the Raiders in the first makes sense – they love speed and blue-chip schools. I have questions about the lack of early production, but I can’t let the first wide receiver taken off the board fall out of the first round.