Describing Matchups: Week Six Strength of Schedule
If you are interested in my strength of schedule table and how it works, I’d recommend checking out the first article in this series.
As usual, I’m going to look at how things worked out last week first, before breaking down a few matchups I find interesting this week.
Let’s dig in.
Week Five Recap
HIT: Cleveland WRs VS LAC DST: While Odell Beckham has significant volume relative to the Cleveland passing offense, I don’t think this is the week to drop him in your lineup if you have other options.
It is looking like an easier and easier call to sit Cleveland pass-catchers this year.
MISS/HIT: Buffalo WRs VS KC DST: Stefon Diggs… has elite level usage at the wide receiver position… I expect better in week five… Emmanuel Sanders has emerged as the clear second option in targets… a lot of people might prefer Dawson Knox …. I think Sanders might is the better start given his more consistent usage so far.
Eight points for Diggs, 20 points for Sanders. I’ll take it.
MISS: New York Jets WRs VS ATL DST: Jamison Crowder… Corey Davis… I think they are both potential flex options against this defense. If you’re looking for a deep start, I think both Crowder and Davis could suffice this week.
Freaking… Jets, ya know? Michael Carter had the better game instead.
HIT: Los Angeles RBs and WRs VS CLE DST: I’d favor the deeper receiver against the Browns, and this could potentially be a bounce-back week for Mike Williams who has the highest aDot.
That’s what you call a bounce-back (eight catches, 165 yards, two touchdowns). Nice.
PASS: Tennessee RBs VS JAC DST: Starting Derrick Henry is hardly a tough call, I’m just curious to see how that works out this week and think it could tell us a lot, so I wanted to mention it.
I learned Henry is an unstoppable force. He didn’t have more volume, but he smashed the expected value of his volume by 9.9 points. Yowza.
Combination Passing Ranks
Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens vs Each other’s defense
This could be a disappointing game for fantasy, or an amazing game. It’s one of those “unstoppable force meets an immovable object” kind of matchups. There’s a lot we could break down here – since two efficient and fantasy-relevant passing games are facing each other, each with defenses that have limited their opponents (yes, I called Baltimore a fantasy-relevant passing game and it felt great!) But I think I’m most interested in Keenan Allen.
Baltimore has been a particularly tough matchup for wide receivers, having shut down everyone they have faced outside of the top 12 while allowing three tight ends (Travis Kelce, Noah Fant, and Darren Waller) into the top 12. So, passing points are available for good players, and notably, lower aDot players with high volume. Last week Michael Pittman managed to hit WR14, with an aDot of 6.3. I think Allen fits the description better than anyone else on the team (aDot of 8.8, target share of 25%).
If these two teams explode for a good game, which Vegas’ 51.5-point projection seems to expect, I think we could see a good matchup here.
Combination Rushing Ranks
Green Bay RBs VS Chicago defense
This choice is mainly because I’m tired of pointing out how tough Cleveland and Carolina are against the rush, to be honest. I think Green Bay’s tendency to move away, seemingly randomly, from Aaron Jones on top of the fact that Chicago has limited the rushing game in efficiency and volume is notable. Kareem Hunt is the only running back who has managed to enter the top 12 against Chicago despite them facing D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon and, obviously, Nick Chubb. Over the last two weeks, AJ Dillon has increased into more of a receiving role.
Do I sit Jones? No, probably not, unless he’s your third running back. Do I start Dillon? No, I don’t. But I also wouldn’t play either in DFS.
Miami RBs vs JAC defense
Myles Gaskin, after sitting on everyone’s bench last week, is now facing one of the “easiest” rushing matchups in the NFL. Do I believe? Yes, I do. As upsetting as it may be, as foolhardy as I feel to chase last week, I’m starting Gaskin as my RB2 everywhere I have him.
Gaskin will manage what only Derrick Henry has done before (in 2021) – he will finish in the top 12 this week while facing Jacksonville.
That’s about all I have time for this week, I’m afraid.
Please feel free to ask any questions you have in the comments below or @pahowdy on Twitter.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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