IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six
This season is just the worst. Dak Prescott, Chandler Jones, Sam Hubbard, Denico Autry, and Lorenzo Carter, I hope you get better soon. This year is really going to come down to whose roster is the healthiest come week 16, so let’s dig in and try to help combat some of the injuries you have inevitably faced so far this year. Sigh.
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 5 Hits, 9 Average, 5 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 10 Hits, 4 Average, 4 Busts
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week Five Observations
- If you read my articles at the start of the season, I told you to pick up Joe Thomas as the most important waiver add of the week. Now, SELL HIM!!!! Leighton Vander Esch should be back in the next couple weeks, and you may be able to sneakily pawn Thomas off for a long-term IDP asset if someone is desperate for short-term help at linebacker. Once Vander Esch returns, Thomas will be riding the bench like he’s done since 2017. A savvy sell for dynasty players.
- Dakota Allen, Daniel Thomas, and Dawuane Smoot all popped up on stat radars this week! Ignore this, though, as they simply filled in for Myles Jack and Josh Allen… sorry for the tease.
- After waiting four weeks for Steven Nelson to make a splash on a Steelers defense that hasn’t stopped making plays, he showed up with two interceptions against the Eagles. Did I drop him at 12:50 pm right before the game? Why yes, yes I did. You’re welcome @America.
- Foyesade Oluokon had a brilliant game against the Panthers in week five. Deion Jones is the alpha of that sorry defense, but there is enough volume against them where Oluokon can still be a low-LB2 on a weekly basis.
- Last week Bryce Huff was the one to make something happen along the Jets defensive line, and this week John Franklin-Myers got it done. He turned in a sack and posted a moderate stat line, leaving both of them as stashes on the very end of your bench as of now, until one possibly becomes reliable. Neither are currently startable on less than 30 snaps per game…
- It’s been nice to see Stephon Tuitt have a bounce-back start to the year after two injury-riddled years. The Steelers defense is a sack factory, and if you’re looking for a lottery ticket, Tuitt and Tyson Alualu are a few premier lottery tickets to roll out each week if you can’t afford the likes of Bud Dupree or TJ Watt.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Through the quarter mark of the season, I believe it’s important to reflect on those leading the league in my Disruption Score in order to see which players are really as good as their stats indicate, while also identifying some positive regression candidates in the process.
The top ten Disruption Scores are littered with the biggest names in the league (TJ Watt, Aaron Donald, Joey Bosa, Yannick Ngakoue, and Bradley Chubb), to nobody’s surprise. But, when filtering impressive Disruption Scores with low sack rates, we are able to find some candidates waiting to finally get to the quarterback and truly disrupt their opponents.
I will start posting charts like the one above from time to time if you like this visual (let me know in the comments!), as we try to find the next rising IDP asset before they even break out. As you can see, the hit rate in week five was pretty stellar, even when based on a four-week sample size.
Defensive Line
Arik Armstead, DE SF (Season Disruption Score: 60.59 ~ DL #10 overall)
While Armstead was silent in what may be the most shocking game of the season thus far, his Disruption Score speaks for itself as a reliable IDP option. He is currently fifth among qualifying players, and this team will be desperate to spark some life into their team to salvage their season. I expect him to bounce back against the Rams next Sunday, as Kerry Hyder has been hogging all the sacks on their team as of late *smugly tips cap*
Linebacker
Tyus Bowser, LB BAL (Season Disruption Score: 46.91 ~ LB #5 overall)
Bowser is starting to break out in his third full season with Baltimore, and Patrick Queen’s development in the middle of the field has given Bowser the freedom to excel in his role. Bowser is a statistical darling, even if the production hasn’t necessarily fallen into place yet. I’d buy low on him before he breaks out against an Eagles team that has surrendered 19 sacks in only five weeks, from a dejected owner whose patience may have worn thin on him… and doesn’t read this article.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Shaq Lawson, DE MIA (Week Six, vs. New York Jets)
Lawson was a limited participant in practice all of last week, until Brian Flores ultimately decided not to rush him back onto the field against San Francisco. Zach Sieler performed well in his place, but he poses no serious threat to Lawson’s 75-80% snap share. The Dolphins are riding high off after dominating the NFC champions 43-17, and should easily be able to carry their momentum full force against their division opponent, the New York Jets.
Whether it’s via multiple sacks or a lot of Le’Veon Bell one-yard carries, Lawson should find himself with plenty of opportunities next Sunday if he is healthy.
Dante Fowler, DE ATL (Week Six, @ Minnesota)
Dan Quinn seems like a stand-up guy from everything I have ever heard about him, but from a football perspective, this can only be good news for the future stock value of Falcons players. Fowler has only averaged two tackles per game to start off the season, but for those finding themselves in a pinch next week, few matchups are better right now than one against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings.
While he wasn’t able to come away with a splash play against Carolina yesterday, he was constantly in the backfield, and his 14.06 Disruption Score is respectable with Takkarist McKinley and Grady Jarrett also there to help draw attention away from Fowler. He is a one-week rental I wouldn’t feel bad about in week six.
Linebacker
Dre Greenlaw, LB SF (Week Six, vs. LA Rams)
Greenlaw has been sorely missed in this San Francisco defense. After playing only 17 snaps in week two and missing San Francisco’s last two games completely, he had a nice showing yesterday with seven tackles (five solos) alongside Fred Warner and Kwon Alexander.
The Rams seem a bit bored out there these days with the early leads they’ve been able to amass the last few weeks, and if this is the case again next Sunday night, Greenlaw will have plentiful tackle opportunities to get his season back on track. The 2019 fifth-round pick has a ton of potential as a dynasty IDP asset for years to come.
Damien Wilson, LB KC (Week Six, @ Buffalo)
New rookie Willie Gay Jr. finally had an impactful performance against the Raiders yesterday, but his increase in snaps mainly takes away from Anthony Hitchens rather than impede Damien Wilson’s spot in this Chiefs defense.
For that reason alone, I expect Wilson to lead the team in tackles against a Bills team that will likely find themselves in a shootout in a Monday afternoon primetime game. Josh Allen’s running game is a plus for someone who plays off the edge like Wilson, as he will likely be a beneficiary of trying to keep one of Allen’s greatest strengths limited.
Defensive Backs
Byron Murphy, CB ARI (Week Six, @ Dallas)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Andy Dalton will have a full week’s worth of practice with the starters, but the downgrade from Dak to Dalton simply cannot be overstated.
Murphy is a young corner who Dallas may try to pick on, but don’t think Kliff Kingsbury and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph won’t have him coached up. This game could possibly be the highest-scoring Sunday game on the slate, leaving Murphy plenty of chances to come away with a pick-six.
Did you like the new image detailing Disruption Score a bit more to identify sack breakout candidates? Is there anything in this weekly article that you’d like to see less or more of? Please be sure to let me know in the comments! I am going off of what I would want to know if I was in your shoes, but I am happy to adjust to better cater to what helps your league settings most. Thankful for everyone who reads!
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
