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IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15

We offer up some players to target for your playoff matchups.

Shaq Lawson

The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals – you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups.

To uncover these players, I come up with suggestions going down two main avenues. The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.

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Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.

Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 19 Hits, 14 Average, 12 Busts (Highsmith?)
Matchup-Based Adds~ 31 Hits, 17 Average, 14 Busts

*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*

Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

Week 14 Observations

  • Troy Reeder has been a comfortable top ten linebacker any time Micah Kiser misses time this year, but unfortunately he only had an “okay” outing last Thursday. Kenny Young piled up eight tackles, a sack, and a pick-six, leaving Reeder with a pedestrian seven tackles. Kiser is eligible to return in week 15, which would lead to both Reeder and Young on IDP benches for the rest of the season.
  • If you are in a tackle-heavy IDP scoring league, few defensive backs are looking better on waivers than Adrian Phillips right now. He’s got 22 tackles (15 solo) the past two matchups alone, and is causing havoc along the line of scrimmage as well.
  • I agonized over whether to start Tyrell Adams or Roquan Smith… that’s 2020 for ya… but ultimately both choices would have been right. They are both LB1s the rest of the way home.
  • For two consecutive weeks, everyone on the Dolphins’ defense has been eating except for Emmanuel Ogbah. He is constantly in the backfield disrupting the plays, but just hasn’t been able to finish a play off on his own. Next week’s matchup against New England is very favorable, after two touch matchups on paper the last two weeks.
  • All Haason Reddick does is sack the quarterback. Five tackles, five sacks, and two forced fumbles. If you played him looking for upside, congrats and good luck in the semifinals!
  • A quiet day for Isaiah Simmons was mainly caused due to volume rather than any factors on his end. I know we all want to play our shiny new first-round draft pick, but it looks like we really should be waiting until 2021.
  • Jeremy Chinn will almost certainly get Defensive Rookie of the Year this year after his double fumble recovery TDs, but I think my vote still goes to Antoine Winfield Jr. He is so fun to watch, and will be an IDP mainstay for years to come in that defense.
  • Avoid all Minnesota pass rushers.
  • Jermaine Carter is sneaking up tackle boards as this season closes out, and is an interesting stash to keep in the back of your head.
  • I don’t know what it is exactly (probably the hair), but Alex Singleton has been fun to watch over the past month. I can’t keep calling people top 12 linebackers the rest of the season, but he is a definite LB2 with upside through your playoff stretch.
  • Kamren Curl! My favorite defensive back pickup in week seven has far exceeded even my own expectations. Curl is looking like a steal coming to Washington in the seventh round of the draft, but I am curious to see what happens heading into next year, as Landon Collins has four years left on his contract. He may not be relevant again until 2024, but it’s hard to bench a guy performing as well as Curl.

Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters that have tough matchups ahead in the first round of the playoffs who you MAY consider benching for a dart throw found below (I know, I know… it’s the playoffs! But just because they got you here, doesn’t always mean they’ll be able to bring you across the finish line either).

DL: Brian Burns, Sam Hubbard, Yannick Ngakoue, JJ Watt
LB: Alexander Johnson, Shaq Thompson, Deion Jones
DB: Logan Ryan, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Malcolm Jenkins, Jeremy Chinn

Disruption Score Waiver Adds

As we close out the regular season, here are the top 25 players by Disruption Score in the 2020-21 season (minimum 20 tackles). Hendrickson got another sack against the Falcons yesterday, which will post his score even higher, but if he keeps this pace he may post a top ten Disruption Score all time! While it has certainly been nice to finally see Derek Barnett accumulate some sacks and give us a glimpse of the player we have been waiting so patiently for him to become, his Disruption Score shows he actually should be producing at an even higher level. He is a firm hold (and maybe even a buy low) in dynasty heading into next season.

Defensive Line

Dion Jordan, DE SF (Season Disruption Score: 11.39 ~ DL #43 overall)

Jordan saw a dip in snap count against the Bills in week 13 (48%), but his performance has proven this is only a temporary dip. He had a positive matchup yesterday against a below-average Washington offensive line, and made sure to capitalize on this opportunity, bringing home a sack. Jordan has posted a phenomenal Disruption Score this far along in the season, even while only producing three sacks through 11 games. This metric has shown to identify sack breakout candidates all year long, and I expect Armstead to be a solid playoff fill in even in an extremely easy matchup against the Cowboys in week 15.

Linval Joseph, DT LAC (Season Disruption Score: 8.64 ~ DL #49 overall)

Joseph is more of a “play him if you are desperate for a defensive tackle” option, but Linval Joseph is a post-hype player I have used in some of my DT-featured leagues when I’ve been in a weekly pinch. While Joseph has been quiet as of late this season (the Chargers’ defensive line is rich in talent, and they use a Dallas-type rotation to get each player snaps), his Disruption Score proves there is an influx coming soon, and what better way to get his first sack of the year than walking into a game against the rival Raiders in primetime, fresh off an energizing victory.

Linebacker

Nicholas Morrow, LB LV (Disruption Score: 15.67 ~ LB #20 overall)

Morrow was essentially listed as a boom-bust linebacker for the first ten weeks of the season, but the stretch he has been on the past five weeks is the second-best of any linebacker over that stretch! For reference, the only linebacker with more fantasy points in these weeks is Joe Schobert. Due to his slow stretch and the general lack of appeal that comes with being a Raiders defender, there actually still may be a chance he is on your waiver wire.

Morrow has been able to impact the opponent’s game plans in ways that haven’t appeared on the stat sheet, but everything I’ve seen when watching him play suggests his recent tear will continue to close out the season. He and Nick Kwiatkoski play about 90% of the snaps on a weekly basis, and the Chargers’ obsession with feeding Austin Ekeler should give Morrow a plentiful amount of tackle opportunities next Thursday.

Matchup-Based Waiver Adds

Defensive Line

Shaq Lawson, DE MIA (Week 15 vs. New England)

In terms of juicy matchups, few are juicier than one against the Patriots on the road. If you don’t believe me, just refer to the sackfest that took place last Thursday, when seemingly everyone on the Rams was able to hit Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham with ease. New England is currently surrendering the third-most fantasy points to defensive ends over the past five weeks, averaging 32.9 IDP points allowed per game. Emmanuel Ogbah and Jerome Baker have inserted themselves as the immediate threats for Belichick to plan against, leaving Lawson with plenty of opportunities to get by the line and come up with a splash play (or two) of his own. Ogbah and Lawson are some of my favorite plug-and-plays if you need help along the defensive line this week.

Clelin Ferrell, DE LV (Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers)

The Chargers are currently surrendering the fourth-most points to opposing defensive ends on the season, and although the Raiders pass-rushing units is among the worst in the league, this matchup poses an intriguing question- what happens when a totally stoppable force meets a completely moveable object? Ferrell has disappointed fantasy managers on a consistent basis ever since we drafted him, but his incredible performance in week 13 has me ready to get hurt again… as I am desperate for a DE2 with upside in one of my semifinal matchups. I’d rank him at about DE30 on the week, so my expectations aren’t *too* crazy. I just think it’s a nice matchup for him.

Linebacker

Damien Wilson, LB KC (Week 15 @ New Orleans)

While Anthony Hitchens is the main linebacker to own in Kansas City, the Saints simply allow a stupid number of fantasy points to opposing linebackers. I mean, Duke Riley had a solid outing this week for Philadelphia as their second linebacker!! Wilson has quietly racked up 23 tackles in his last five outings. New Orleans has allowed an average of 57.99 points to linebackers with their run-heavy attack, and this will probably be the case even more with Taysom Hill slotted to start again in week 15. Wilson would be a mid-LB3 in my eyes next week, but this is a name worth monitoring if you are simply out of other options in your must-win matchup next week.

Dre Greenlaw, LB SF (Week 15 @ Dallas)

I’ve written plenty about Greenlaw in the past so he should already be on your roster, but in case you have not picked him up yet, please do so against the run-heavy Cowboys. Fred Warner is the obvious alpha of this defense ever since Nick Bosa went down for the season, but Greenlaw has been a stud in his own right, and especially so in terms of fantasy production. I like Greenlaw as a top 24 linebacker option in week 15, and think he has a legitimate shot to come out with 10+ tackles next week.

Defensive Backs

Carlton Davis, CB TB (Week 15 @ Atlanta)

Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Davis is someone who provides that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on. He has 26 tackles over the past five weeks, with four passes defensed but zero interceptions. Davis has four interceptions on the season despite this recent “slump,” and there are few better spots to get another one than against the Falcons in a must-win game.

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IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15
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ACMonster
1 year ago

FWIW looks like Kiser won’t be coming off IR this week

Will Finnegan
1 year ago

Yannick is killing me and I’ve been patient all yr but in the semis and can’t afford a 0 from any position
The Shaq and Clelin are available in my league and also Olivier Vernon, Guy and Simon from NE, Josh sweat and Hubbard from cincy.
I have a claim in for Vernon bc he’s playing giants but is there a better option from the group I named?
1p per tackle
.5 for assist
3 for a sack
.75 for a pass def
Turnover points and turnover return points
Thanks!!

Chris Alkhoury
1 year ago

Hubbard should not be on any waiver wire. Long-term stud.

Dawgs4life Dawgs4life
1 year ago

Has Damien Wilson been on the inactive list on game day for the last 2-3 weeks? I don’t think he was injured either. Might want to double check this one.

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