If you’re still reading this, two things – first of all, thank you. It is always great to hear from readers of the column (shoutout Andy!), and your testimonials about how my waiver wire column helped you navigate what was perhaps the craziest and most injury-ridden season in recent memory made me immensely proud of the research I did this year. Secondly, if you’re reading this week 17 waiver column, you are a true degenerate and I love you for it.
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals- you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups.
To uncover these players, I come up with suggestions going down two main avenues. The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
*FINAL* waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 20 Hits, 17 Average, 14 Busts (40% Hit Rate)
Matchup-Based Adds~ 34 Hits, 18 Average, 16 Busts (50% Hit Rate!)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
For the very last time, let’s do this thing!
As we close out the regular season, you probably know everything you need to know with one week left. Instead of looking for dart throws who will only serve you one more week, I figured this article would do more good by looking ahead to next season. This week’s article will list some of my favorite young IDP assets, whether they are bound to rise in value in 2021-22 or look like a promising long-term stash (if you can be patient 😊). NOTE: All players listed below are currently 25 years old or younger.
Once again, thank you for reading all year long and I wish you luck in the off-season as you make deals and try to survive the next eight months until we can play fantasy again! I encourage you to try to invite ONE extra person to play IDP next season with you, and turn this niche into the mainstream form of fantasy football.
Defensive Line (listed in order of dynasty value)
- Yetur Gross-Matos, DE CAR – Battled injuries to begin the year, but finished very strong.
- Carl Lawson, DE CIN
- Daron Payne/Montez Sweat/Jonathan Allen, DE WAS – this is obviously Chase Young’s team, but whoever lines up most often opposite him surely will be in line for an uptick in value for the foreseeable future.
- Isaac Rochell, DE LAC – I like what I saw from Rochell as Melvin Ingram continues to get older and more injured.
- DJ Wonnum, DE MIN – Working with Danielle Hunter on the other side should help next season.
- AJ Epenesa, DE BUF
- Kingsley Keke, DE GB
- Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, DT ATL – If you play in DT-specified leagues, Tuioti-Mariner is a great stash once Grady Jarrett’s play starts to decline.
- John Penisini, DT DET – Value on name alone
- Charles Omenihu, DE HOU – Impressed me at only 23 years old, future is bright after JJ Watt.
- Morgan Fox, DE LAR
- John Franklin-Myers, DE NYJ – I refuse to give up on this man. I had to list him here.
- LJ Collier, DE SEA
Linebacker (listed in order of dynasty value)
- Willie Gay, ILB KC – Patience is a virtue. Don’t panic on your first-rounder.
- Dre Greenlaw, ILB SF – Love his upside in Robert Saleh’s defense.
- Ja’Whaun Bentley, ILB NE
- Tyrell Adams, ILB HOU – He is the one age exception here at 28, but his upside is clear if you rostered him this year. He will surely be bench fodder behind Zach Cunningham and Benardrick McKinney who are both under contract through 2022, but if you roster either of them, Adams is a MUST-have as a handcuff.
- Troy Reeder, ILB LAR – Tremendously talented, but only valuable if the defense changes entirely or Micah Kiser is injured
- Krys Barnes, ILB GB
- Alex Highsmith, OLB PIT – Monitor Pittsburgh’s looming decision on Bud Dupree, as he played on the franchise tag in 2020.
- Malik Reed, OLB DEN – Balled out this season, but the clear-cut third wheel in the Von Miller–Bradley Chubb love affair.
- Jermaine Carter, ILB CAR – Came on strong late in the season, and Matt Rhule wants a young defense. Tahir Whitehead doesn’t scare me in terms of pecking order come next season.
- Sione Takitaki, ILB CLE
- Terez Hall, ILB NE – Impressed when he got on the field. Curious if Bill Belichick gives him more time next season.
- Tae Crowder, ILB NYG – Mr. Irrelevant didn’t play like it to end his rookie season.
- David Long Jr., OLB TEN
- Tarell Basham, OLB NYJ
- Andrew Van Ginkel, OLB MIA – I’d pass, but production was notable.
Defensive Backs (listed in order of dynasty value)
- Xavier McKinney, S NYG – I doubt anyone is parting with him, but I’d be curious to see if you can get a severe injury discount on this stud.
- Ronnie Harrison, S CLE – Cleveland is the perfect fit for him.
- Mike Hilton, CB PIT – Hilton is a cheat code in leagues that feature cornerback spots. He can get you a sack, interception, force a fumble, or rack up eight tackles.
- Jordan Fuller, S LAR – I’d watch to see what Los Angeles does regarding John Johnson’s contract this offseason before going all-in on Fuller.
- Kamren Curl, S WAS – MAN. I love watching Kamren Curl play football. The seventh-round rookie has played absolutely out of his mind since he started filling in for Landon Collins, and it’s hard to put him back on the bench in 2021. I know they have the All-Pro safety on their team in his place, but I think they have a gem in this guy. I’m hoping Washington can offload Collins to keep Curl on the field. Stash him away even if it takes a couple of seasons.
- Andrew Wingard, S JAX
- Kyle Dugger, S NE – Bill Belichick rolls out three safeties at the highest rate in the league, but his scheme takes a while to learn. Patience on this rookie should pay off as well.
- Donovan Wilson, S DAL
- Brandon Jones, S MIA
- Khari Willis, S IND – I’m waiting for clarity on this situation when Indianapolis has a fully healthy defense next season.
- Josh Jones, S JAX
- Lonnie Johnson, CB HOU