A Superflex Life, Volume V: The Superflex Theorem
Taking the QB-Xtreme (aka “QBX”) approach to a startup feels weird. It looks weird, too. It raises eyebrows, as your leaguemates try to understand what is happening. They start to panic, and they try to get you to panic instead by belittling the approach.
This is why I created “QBX Bingo.” Every time you get one of these warnings from a leaguemate, mark the space on your Bingo card, until you’ve heard them all – and you WILL hear them all – and can declare Bingo!
- “Why do you need all of those QBs? You can only start two!”
- “All of those points are wasted on your bench!”
- “QBs are overrated! I won a superflex championship with Eli Manning and Joe Flacco [or whatever trash can QBs they anecdotally had on their championship roster ‘that one time’]. They’re all the same. You should be trying to get an advantage at RB instead.”
- “No one is going to trade with you. I talked to the rest of the league and they all agreed that they won’t trade for your QBs.”
- “You’re ruining this league. You’re taking all of the fun out of it. Everyone is going to quit. I asked the Commissioner to restart the draft.”
Funny; for all their infinite value, you never hear anyone say “you’re ruining the league” when you take an RB-heavy approach. Why? Because there are plenty of RBs to go around. We’ve established that. And a new crop of RBs will come along next year, and just replace the top-end RBs. We’ve established that, too. And maybe you have won a championship with throwaway QBs like Manning and Flacco, but you have absolutely won with waiver RBs like Raheem Mostert, Damien Williams, CJ Anderson, Josh Adams, Spencer Ware, TJ Yeldon, and an ongoing list that has no end visible to the naked eye. You had to. The RB position goes through weekly turnover… not just yearly, but weekly!
And WR faces all of the same challenges as RB, just slightly less pronounced. More importantly, they don’t score enough to carry significant weight. Even an outlier season by a WR isn’t enough to carry a dynasty superflex team past those teams with QBs and/or elite RBs.
But the QB position remains stable, especially at the top. Once a QB solidifies his role as the starter, he keeps the job for years. That’s why you cannot solidify a dynasty superflex roster without QBs. Once they have been drafted in the startup, they are effectively taken out of circulation for the duration of their career… and it will be a while before their job opens up and another QB with access to a starting job becomes available.
The point of the QBX strategy isn’t to “kill the league” by holding the QBs hostage. That’s a byproduct, created by those who ignore the realities of superflex and the QB position by fading them and failing to stabilize their own rosters. The real point of the QBX strategy is to avoid those pitfalls yourself. So use patience in trading; wait for the right deal. And the truth of the matter is, you may have to wait well into the season and, possibly, until the off-season following year one. And that’s okay; you are still in a position of power with your QBX roster (more on that next week), even if you aren’t yet in a position of leverage.
So what type of trade should we wait for? What type of price point can we reasonably expect? It all depends on the players involved, so give yourself the most value possible, and enhance your returns.
Why QB Early?
The QBX strategy is a two-sided sword, and it only works if you use both sides. It’s not enough to draft five QBs in the later rounds of the draft; if you do that, just stick to four and take yourself out of the one-for-one trade market. Not only do you need five or more QBs, you want them to be the best QBs you can get. Remember the Tao of Superflex (Volume III)? Production leads to value. Value drives superflex. Maximize your roster value.
There are two reasons this is important in trading, as there are two strategies for trading QBs in superflex.
1. The Superflex Theorem
The Superflex Theorem states that if a QB’s startup draft position is within two rounds of a non-QB’s draft position, the QB’s post-startup value will be equal to or greater than that of the non-QB.
In other words, if you draft a WR or RB with your third-round pick in the startup, and then draft a QB with your fifth-round pick, after the startup those two players will have the same value… if the fifth-round QB isn’t worth even more than the third-round non-QB.
In the startup, we tend to look at the pool of players available and say “there are a ton of QBs left, so I can wait on them.” But here’s the problem: that pool of QBs is available to the entire league. Anyone can draft that fifth-round QB, it isn’t a unique thought or opportunity to one person.
But once the draft is over, the abundance of QBs gives way to scarcity. There are no QBs available on waivers, there is no draft where they are all available again; they are taken completely out of circulation. But we don’t use foresight; we don’t think about that until it’s too late. That QB you could have taken in the third round is on a roster, and there is no reasonable facsimile in the pool of available players. But the RB you took instead can be replaced with a waiver addition. The waiver pickup might not score as much as a third-round startup pick (though they certainly do on occasion! Example from 2019: RB38 Damien Williams with a third-round ADP, RB26 Raheem Mostert from waivers) but they will score enough to augment a lineup with two QBs combining for 40-50 points per week.
That’s why we always say “QBs are always cheapest in the startup.” There is no scarcity during the startup. But as soon as the startup is over, that scarcity sinks in and the QBs get a value bump across the board. They are so scarce that most teams cannot logistically trade away a QB without getting one in return; that is where the immense value comes from if you are in a position to trade one away without getting one in return. We quantify it with the Superflex Theorem.
This all really just begs the question: if you only had two QBs, how good would the non-QB have to be in order for you to give up one of your QBs for them? If your only QBs are Carson Wentz and Tom Brady, would you trade Wentz (July 2020 Superflex ADP of 34th overall) for the WR (Mike Evans) or the RB (Kenyan Drake) who went immediately ahead of him? Sure, you get an upgrade at WR or RB to the tune of an extra five points per week, but you give up not only Wentz’s 18-20 points per week at QB, but your only QB when Brady is on bye. And when Brady retires, you have no QBs with no way of acquiring them. Suddenly Evans/Drake doesn’t seem like such a prize.
So what would it take to put yourself in that situation? Would Jonathan Taylor do it? How about Miles Sanders? Davante Adams? Dalvin Cook? Are any of these elite-level players worth the hole you would have to dig to acquire them? In order to trade Wentz, you would need to get enough value back to turn around and trade for another QB who is enough of a downgrade from Wentz that he still comes with a non-QB starter upgrade, which is really just the upper crust; the elite of the elite. In other words, the players worth parting with Wentz for are all first-round startup picks. The Superflex Theorem. And taking QBs early makes them that much more valuable in their return.
And one quick note on the Superflex Theorem: trades involving QBs on one side but not on the other are very rare, especially with a player of Wentz’s caliber. But it’s still important to quantify his value in such a trade, and it is crucial to consider his value from the lowest denominator. If you have five-plus QBs on the roster (and especially if you are anxious to trade one away), it is easy to say “I can afford to take a loss and trade him at a discount.” If you give a discount, the discounted price becomes the price. You will never get full price for a QB again. No discounts.
Instead, think in terms of Wentz as one of just two QBs on your roster. That is his actual value; whatever he would be worth in the worst-case scenario is his actual value. Stick to that price point, regardless of your QB depth!
2. QB Packaging
This is by far the most common type of trade involving a QB. Here’s the framework: package a QB and a non-QB for a QB and a non-QB.
Always downgrade at QB. As mentioned in Volume II: “Mythbusters,” the difference in scoring from one QB to the next is generally pretty minimal. Whoever has the QB1 overall season tends to outscore the QB2 by at least five points per game (ppg), but the rest of the QBs score very similarly. In 2019, QB2 overall Dak Prescott scored an average of 21.8 PPG. He was barely 4 PPG better than QB11 Aaron Rodgers (17.5) and about 7 PPG better than QB24 Jacoby Brissett (14.9). You can make up the difference between QB2 and QB24 with a starter upgrade at any other position.
Side note: people take that to mean that you can win with Brissett rather than Prescott, which is true from a production standpoint. But once again, the Tao of Superflex; value and production work together. Prescott’s value PLUS Brissett’s production is where championships are actually won.
Back to the trade. We know we can win with virtually any QBs, as long as we have QBs at both QB and superflex. We don’t need Prescott, we just need a QB. So package Prescott with a flex-level starter, get back a QB in a lower tier and an upgrade at the non-QB position, and you will barely feel the QB downgrade, but the non-QB upgrade will be substantial.
I used the nifty Trade Analyzer here at DLF, and constructed a superflex trade sending Prescott and Brandin Cooks, and getting back Jared Goff. Suggested additions to balance the trade included DJ Moore, George Kittle or Miles Sanders. Prescott scored just 5 PPG more than Goff in 2019. Lose five points at QB, gain an upgrade from Cooks to Moore? Sign me right up!
Part of the reason to draft QBs early is obvious: you can “tier down” multiple times when you start at the top, meaning multiple downgrades at QB and multiple upgrades to the other starting positions. From Patrick Mahomes to Russell Wilson, to Josh Allen, to Daniel Jones, to Gardner Minshew. And each of those five trades comes with an upgrade to another starting spot. If you take the QBX approach, you will have five (or more) QBs who can be downgraded, which means your entire lineup can be upgraded before your QBs bottom out.
There’s also some psychology behind this, though. With all we have discussed, we know that we don’t need Mahomes or Prescott; we just need stable NFL starting QBs. So if we are ever in a position where we need to trade for QBs, we’re targeting lower-tier QBs, right?
Here’s what happens with the majority of superflex players though… the ones who aren’t as enlightened as you. They draft their win-now roster, with stud RBs and target hog WRs, and they’re ready to make a run at a championship… but there’s one problem: they’re starting Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr at QB and superflex. This pristine, sparkling lineup with that one ugly blemish, like a supermodel’s flawless face except for that giant, hairy mole right between her eyes. So they want to upgrade at QB to finish off this work of art.
They come to you with your QBX-built roster. You have Mahomes, Wilson, Wentz, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Lock. Who should they target? Lock, maybe Stafford. Who will they target? They’re going straight for Mahomes. A roster this dazzling deserves the best QB possible.
So what is the value difference between Mahomes and Carr?
Back to the Trade Analyzer… Mahomes has a value of 1,016.1 points and Carr has a value of 98.7 points. Saquon Barkley (887.4 points) almost makes up the difference. Basically, you’re getting multiple starters in return. All because their vanity leads them to the conclusion that Mahomes belongs in their immaculate lineup.
Whichever trade construction you are able to pursue, the trade value of a scarce resource like an elite QB gives you the greatest opportunity to upgrade your entire lineup and roster. Start at the top and work your way down through the tiers, or use the Superflex Theorem for one giant haul. And enough QBs on roster allow you to either make more of these tier drop moves, or puts you in a position to cash in using the Superflex Theorem.
Either way, remember to set the price point and wait until you get it. No discounts! Using the QBX strategy gave you leverage, don’t give it up unnecessarily.
The waiting is, in fact, the hardest part. Tom Petty warned us. But the absolute best position to be in when it comes to any format of fantasy football is having the ability/value to trade without needing to trade. Next week, in the final chapter of “A Superflex Life,” we will talk about why your roster is better with QBs on your bench, how to construct the optimal superflex roster using QBX, and the “Superflex Flywheel.”
