A View from the 1.04: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than two days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
1.04
The Pick: JK Dobbins, RB
After a disappointing 2018 campaign, Ohio State’s JK Dobbins was among the nation’s most dominant backs last season, locking him in as a top three runner in this strong class. For most, he is the clear RB3 and that places him fourth overall according to our latest ADP data. Dobbins skipped out on the Combine, opting to wait for the Buckeyes’ pro day, which never happened. Those missing metrics have caused some to drop Dobbins down the board, but that would be a mistake. Dobbins did weigh in under 210 pounds, which was a slight surprise, but puts him in line with fellow top rookie back D’Andre Swift.
Possible Pivots
This will continue to be the case with these top picks. If you miss out on Dobbins, or have him ranked lower than the consensus, you will have other strong options. These include Swift, Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb.
Trade Value
1.04, 2.02 for 1.06, 1.10
1.04, 3.04 for Odell Beckham
1.04 for 1.07, 2021 2nd
Super-Flex Options: D’Andre Swift, RB
With a pair of quarterbacks near the top of super-flex ADP, that pushes the backs and receivers down a spot, making Swift an easy pick at 1.04. While Swift is seemingly locked in as the RB2 in rookie drafts, most NFL mock drafts have him projected to be the first back taken. This ADP could be in for a major jolt this weekend.
2.04
The Pick: AJ Dillon, RB
Most scouts and even dynasty players came away unimpressed after watching Boston College’s AJ Dillon’s college career. A strong Combine performance, especially one of the top 40 times among running backs, changed some of that as Dillon was even selected in the first round of some of our mock drafts. Dillon runs stiff and barring the perfect landing spot, I’ll be avoiding him, especially at this price.
Possible Pivots
There are many, many players currently falling behind Dillon in our ADP that I would prefer. Just to name a few of them…Bryan Edwards, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman and Antonio Gibson.
Trade Value
2.04, 4.04 for Ronald Jones
2.04 for Jarvis Landry
2.04, 2.07 for 2.01, 3.08
Super-Flex Options: Jordan Love, QB
Just like Josh Allen and Daniel Jones before him, Jordan Love is one of the top quarterback prospects in the class that is just not getting the love from fantasy players. It became trendy to mock Allen and Jones and that is a small part of what caused them to fall to the second round of super-flex rookie drafts. Now, Love is on the same path. The league loves his big arm, but he reportedly lacks some common football knowledge. He’ll be a risky pick for an NFL team, but an easy choice at this point of super-flex leagues.
3.04
The Pick: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR
Three years ago, Donovan Peoples-Jones entered Michigan as the top wide receiver recruit in the country and simply never lived up to the hype. Peoples-Jones projects as a big slot mostly due to his limited speed and athleticism. I expect DPJ to fall to day three of the NFL Draft and if so, his rookie stock should continue down the board.
Possible Pivots
Other options to consider in the third round include Jalen Hurts, Eno Benjamin and Chase Claypool.
Trade Value
3.04, Antonio Brown, Breshad Perriman for James White
3.04 for 3.09, 2021 3rd
3.04, 3.11 for 3.01
Super-Flex Options: KJ Hamler, WR
While I have my concerns about Peoples-Jones in the third round, there’s another Big Ten receiver who could be available in super-flex leagues that is very intriguing. While KJ Hamler measured smaller than expected at 5’9” and 178 pounds, everything else about his profile is strong. Hamler is the ideal slot man, considering his size and quickness, but Hamler also can serve as a vertical threat. He’s a great investment outside of the top two rounds.
4.04
The Pick: Isaiah Hodgins, WR
At 6’4” and over 200 pounds, Isaiah Hodgins is the type of big receiver than dynasty players spent years chasing. Times have changed now and Hodgins is not even a lock to be drafted, which would obviously destroy his dynasty value. Hodgins is a project and may takes a while to be dynasty relevant.
Possible Pivots
Other fourth-round targets include Devin Duvernay, DeeJay Dallas, Van Jefferson and Quintez Cephus.
Super-Flex Options: KJ Hill, WR
Much like Hamler, KJ Hill is another Big Ten receiver who is an ideal fit to stay in the slot. Despite becoming Ohio State’s all-time reception leader, Hill just doesn’t stand out enough in any one area. His lack of speed may be his downfall as an NFL contributor.
- Five Rookies To Target In The Third Round Of Rookie Drafts - May 6, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Superflex Rookie Mock Draft - April 29, 2024
- DLF’s April 1QB Trade Value Chart - April 24, 2024
