2019 IDP Projection Review: NFC West
All through the off-season we work to give DLF readers an edge in their dynasty leagues. That’s useless unless we can prove we’re OK at actually making decent predictions. This series looks back through our final pre-season projections and sees how good or bad they were.
Arizona Cardinals
The overriding issue with the Cardinals was their pace. Because of the offense this team played a very high defensive snap total. That was not properly accounted for and so generally Cards players over-performed.
Corey Peters came out of projections with very strong numbers and came in very close. He was only a few stats out even though he played over 800 snaps.
Rodney Gunter was good overall but failed to hit his tackle targets which hurt his value. The rest of the linemen were inconsequential. Zach Kerr and Jonathan Bullard ended up playing more but none were viable IDPs.
Jordan Hicks played an astonishing amount this year and so finished as an elite LB. He smashed his tackle targets and in particular, trebled his predicted assists. That goes down as a poor prediction.
Haason Reddick actually finished very close though. He was only a couple out on snaps, solos and assists. This happened because he lost his starting job but that’s part of the process. His job was (partially) taken by Joe Walker. That was a left field thing to happen, so he was far better than expected.
Chandler Jones is interesting. He played a huge amount, but he was very close in solos (five up) and assists (three down). He managed 11 extra pressures (17%) but the real difference was sacks. He was expected to hit 12 and he managed 19. That partially reflects his volume (he rushed the passer more than any other player in the NFL this year) but also his high conversion rate. It’s worth noting that Terrell Suggs hit exactly his sack target even with his mid-season team change.
Rookie CB Byron Murphy had an OK season in IDP terms. He finished 15 solos up due to the volume, but he was in the right ballpark along with the other corners on the team. Please remember that the whole “rookie CBs are really good IDPs” thing is a myth.
The last player to mention is Budda Baker. Contrary to beliefs he is not a box safety. He played around half his snaps at deep safety, a third in the box and a fifth in the slot. He just had an awesome season. His 120 solos were well outside the range of sensible prediction in particular. He was a huge asset but again it was built on volume. He did not perform fantastically due to his usage.
Los Angeles Rams
Lineman predictions were OK here. Sebastian Joseph and Greg Gaines were very good. Aaron Donald managed 14 sacks instead of ten but also came in 14 solos short of target. On the other hand Michael Brockers managed 16 solos more than expected.
Cory Littleton continues to be a thorn. He played 200 snaps more than his predicted total, recorded 14 extra solos and 13 assists. Better than last season but still not great. The absence of a second full-time LB was also a hole. This team just did not use one for most of the season and Troy Reeder was vastly underestimated.
Dante Fowler was another surprise. No-one really saw his 15 sacks coming (probably not even him). They mostly came from his elite 22% pressure vs. sack conversion rate. Expect a drop-off in 2020. Thankfully Clay Matthews was much closer to his totals, only a few stats out.
Marcus Peters was traded mid-season, but this is part of the game. He still came in close in snaps, solos and PDs. He did haul in more picks than expected and failed to show willing in making assisted tackles. Aqib Talib’s injury caused him to be a miss, but Nickell Robey was solid.
John Johnson was also hurt fairly early leaving rookie Taylor Rapp to perform much better than expected. Eric Weddle had a much better season than expected at the other spot. If this is his final season it was a good one.
San Francisco 49ers
This was so great to see. All NFL teams suffer injuries, but the 49ers were crippled the last two years. It was fantastic to see it all come together for coach Shanahan.
On the line, DeForest Buckner was close across all categories. That goes down as a win. The other two tackles were solid too.
On the edge, Nick Bosa was a good prediction in volume terms, but he smashed his numbers because he was so, so good as a rookie. Recording 46 more pressures than projection is just ridiculous.
Dee Ford was poor. He played just 226 snaps (worst value in the NFL) and disappointed, although he did end up fairly close in sacks.
Arik Armstead turned in a classic contract-year performance. He destroyed his predicted tackle and sack numbers and he deserves a new start.
Having Solomon Thomas with such pedestrian numbers caused some drama but proved to be the correct course of action. He came in very close to all his (low) predictions. He’s not very good.
At LB we saw one injury that threw things out. Kwon Alexander played just 357 snaps and got nowhere near expectations. Dre Greenlaw picked up his playing time and had a great year. He should be sold immediately because he’ll likely be back on the bench in 2020.
Fred Warner actually over-performed a little. If he’d been slotted as the top LB, he would have been very close but he was not.
The top three corners are all in the right area. Not all stats were correct of course but it was pretty good overall.
At safety Jaquiski Tartt was an enormous disappointment. Even when healthy he just wasn’t efficient, and it seems it might never happen for him as an IDP. His tackle projections were well short. Jimmie Ward was much better. All his stats were very close aside from PDs where he was much better than expected. As a free safety he shouldn’t have been on your radar anyway.
Seattle Seahawks
The top three defensive tackles were all good predictions. Their tackles and sack numbers were all only a handful out. The worst was Al Woods being ten solos short.
Defensive end was another matter entirely. The team just ended up using much more of a distrusted, committee approach than anticipated. Ezekiel Ansah and LJ Collier were distinctly disappointing with half the tackles and just a third of the predicted sacks between them. Quinton Jefferson, Rasheem Green and Branden Jackson all played significantly more and better than expected. There’s nothing to hide behind here – it was just a bad prediction of how the players would be rotated and deployed.
Linebacker was mixed. Bobby Wagner was a big it. He was uncannily close in all stats. K.J. Wright was OK. He stayed healthy and started all year, so he came in over by about 15% across the board.
The surprise was Mychal Kendricks. He was not a full-time player, but he was used way more than the third LB on any other team. In some ways this was a throwback defense given it really was based on base 43. As a result, he handily beat expectations – although since he was still a part-time player it didn’t really translate into much IDP value.
Shaquill Griffin was well projected at corner, but Tre Flowers started all year and beat his numbers, while the other corners were a victim of the schematic approach. They just didn’t use a nickel back much because of the three LB system.
Bradley McDougald was again the safety to own. He was just three solos below prediction and close in most stats. Tedric Thompson was the big loser. He played relatively poorly and then lost his free safety job when Quandre Diggs was acquired mid-season. Marquise Blair and Delano Hill were both well predicted but not viable IDPs.
Thanks for reading.
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 16 - December 29, 2023
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 15 - December 22, 2023
- Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 14 - December 14, 2023
