Ten IDP Fantasy Football Stats You Need to Know after Week 14
The regular season is over for most of us. But IDP never sleeps. The playoffs are even more of a time to find hidden gold than ever. Mine those waivers. Make offers for short-term opportunity players.
Good luck.
1 Bobby Wagner leads all LBs in playing time
Wagner is 33 now, and 34 next off-season, and he has still managed 893 defensive snaps in 13 games (nearly 69 snaps per game).
As you can see below, his tackle efficiency is a little lower than the top guys. This means he might not be among the very top scorers in your league, but that’s just normal distribution.
We’re only 13 weeks in, so plenty can happen from now on out, but it’s a good reminder that the key factor with LBs is injury.
On average, a full-time LB will miss two or three games per season, and about 40% of those guys in week one will play in all 17 games. There are about 30 of them, so we normally see about 12 full-time LBs who manage to stay healthy. Those are your top IDP LBs.
2 Julian Blackmon has played about 80 more snaps in the box than any other NFL safety
You should be familiar with how Blackmon has been used this season by now. Gus Bradley designated him as his dedicated box safety, and he’s lived that role to the hilt, regardless of the fact he’d never played that type of role in the NFL before.
What’s incredible is how far above his peers he is in this metric. You can see below that most of the guys on the list are relatively close to those on either side – no more than about 20 snaps up or down. But Blackmon has played nearly 80 snaps in the box more than his peers. That’s well over the equivalent of a full NFL game.
3 Derrick Brown has a tackle efficiency of 11.5%
This metric for this player has been in this column before this season, but it’s been remarkably consistent all season, to the point where he’s just smashing his competition.
The average tackle efficiency for the next 20 interior linemen (in total tackles) is just 8.0%.
Brown’s 11.5% is level with linebackers Kenneth Murray and Jamin Davis and ahead of Patrick Queen and Alex Anzalone, who have both been useful IDPs this season.
As before, this does not mean you should expect Brown to do the same in future seasons, but he’s been awesome in 2023.
4 Aidan Hutchinson should have 11 to 15 sacks. He has only six
Hutchinson has piled up pressure this season. He’s third among all edges in that stat. But his finishing has been extremely low. He’s converted just 7.1% of his pressures into sacks, while a good edge can expect anywhere from 15-20%.
Converting his 76 pressures into sacks at average rates means he should be somewhere between 11 and 15. Somewhere between five and nine more than he has. That would absolutely transform his season as an IDP.
You’ll see in the chart below that he’s the biggest negative outlier in this particular metric in the NFL. That’s enormously annoying for him and the IDP community, but a few years ago Maxx Crosby was in this position. Just keep the faith.
5 Isaiah Simmons is one of the least efficient pass-rushing, off-ball LBs in the NFL
At this point in his career, it feels like bullying to harp on Simmons’ multiple weaknesses. But even in the face of all evidence it’s common for people to think Simmons is good as a pass-rusher, as well as in coverage.
This is simply untrue. He’s not good at either. He never has been in NFL terms.
6 The most-avoided corner in the 2023 NFL is… Steven Nelson?
Shutdown corner. It’s such a nice phrase. Easy to remember. Evocative. Easy to toss around with no need to actually prove it.
This column has made the case many times that corner targets and corner quality are not linked. But Nelson is a fun illustration.
He’s the 21st-ranked qualifying corner by PFF this season (minimum 50% snaps). But according to target data, offenses are keeping the ball away from him.
Nelson has been targeted just 49 times in 526 coverage snaps, which adds up to a target ratio of 9.3%.
Compare that to some of the best corners in the NFL this season:
- Jaylon Johnson: 42 targets in 424 coverage snaps. 9.9%.
- DaRon Bland: 74 targets in 462 coverage snaps. 16.0%.
- Sauce Gardner: 44 targets in 446 coverage snaps. 9.9%.
- Devon Witherspoon. 64 targets in 470 coverage snaps. 13.6%.
So, one of these must be true:
- Quarterbacks and OCs are avoiding Steven Nelson because he’s a stud.
- Targets actually are not linked reliably to corner quality.
7 Jamal Adams is ‘leading’ all safeties, by missing a tackle on 2.9% of his snaps
Adams has had a great career, both as a real-life player and an IDP (at times). And he’s still young. He only turned 28 a couple of months ago.
But this year he’s in pole position to win the Jalen Pitre Award for Safety With A Penchant For Fluffing Tackles.
A handful of other safeties have as many as he does, but the efficiency is immense.
Adams has missed a tackle on 2.9% of his snaps. The average for a safety is somewhere between 8-9%, so that missed tackle percentage is really significant. Adams’ tackle efficiency is over 10% right now. If he had an especially low miss rate, then his overall tackle efficiency would be exceptional. But it’s not. His personal errors have turned him from a low-volume, high-efficiency player into an also-ran IDP.
8 Defending the run more does not generate more tackles
A common belief is that in IDP, you want players who play on defenses that have to play against the run a lot.
This is totally untrue – mainly because rushing plays eat the clock, and so if a defense has to do a lot of them, it reduces overall snaps, and therefore scoring.
This next chart shows team-level snap proportion of rushing plays vs team-level solo tackles (assists muddy the waters because stat crews hand out very different totals).
As you can see there’s just no real link at all. Stop thinking playing the run is in any way a good thing in IDP. It is not.
9 Justin Madubuike has extended his streak to ten straight games with a sack
This is the second straight week that Madubuike has been in this column for the same stat. But it’s a simply incredible streak. And until it ends, it’s going to be one of the most noteworthy IDP stats in the league.
10 It sort of doesn’t matter where safeties line up
Earlier in this column, we saw Julian Blackmon’s huge lead over other safeties in box snaps.
But here’s the kicker: it’s just not that important.
Even with that massive advantage in usage, Blackmon is underperforming as an IDP.
He’s first among all safeties in total defensive snaps, and first (by a long way in box snaps). But he’s eighth in tackles and about fifth in points.
That’s low efficiency compared to volume – not high as you might expect.
This chart shows the top 24 safeties sorted by fantasy points (your scoring system can and will vary) vs their alignment. Obviously, we do not see the dedicated box guys at the top. That used to be more of a thing, but wit current trends in the NFL, it’s a bit of an anachronism.
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