Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Four
Welcome back to our weekly target share article where I look for trends, patterns and edges in fantasy football based on opportunity and usage. This week I decided to stop merging data from multiple sources and just use that provided to us by 4for4.com. This is partly because it was a chore, and partly because that chore was a big reason I was always bumping up against our deadline.
So, new data source, same process.
This week I want to take a look at the target share leaders, some trending up and down players in both snap and target % (shock, right?) I have a new trend of the week to share and a link to our UDud results. The data is posted at the end of the article.
Let’s go!
Top Target Shares
Here are the top 12 players in target share through the first four weeks. Using 4for4.com’s data table, I was actually able to display the week-to-week target shares, providing better context.
For one thing, our trend from last week was spot on. Targets have already started to diffuse more broadly through NFL offenses and the top-performing target share players almost all lost ground in their season-long stat. You can see this in the “Change” column on the right. You can also see that week four marked the lowest target share for most of those high volume players.
Mike Evans, WR TB
His volume over-corrected in week four and I’d expect him to adjust upwards (again) in targets over the course of the season. Evans still scored well, though Chris Godwin’s huge game may still leave questions in the minds of some dynasty owners. The fact is both are top 12 players and look ready to trade back and forth big weeks. If the Evans discount still exists, take it.
Keenan Allen, WR LAC
Also seems to have over-corrected in week four. The fact he still remains at the top of the season-long target share list should tell you all you need to know about his volume. Continue to target that volume.
As a reminder, even though volume is “sticky” (or rather the most sticky-ist anyway) it still spikes up and down. Here’s a reminder of last week’s target share leaders offers a decent buy-low list.
Here’s a list of players who’s situations didn’t change radically and likely just suffered variance due to game script or matchup: Darren Waller, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Alvin Kamara, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN and Auden Tate, WR CIN
With the news that John Ross will now likely miss significant time Auden Tate’s 30% target share from week three sure looks even more interesting. In truth, I think Boyd is more likely to bounce back going forward, but Auden Tate should now definitely be added in dynasty leagues and can offer bye week appeal – just in case you weren’t able to snag or fit him on your roster last week.
Risers
There are several players who have continued to increase in opportunity throughout the course of 2019.
These are the only players who have currently increased in target share every week. Several of them have not yet spiked in PPR points so they may offer decent targets or streamers.
Jarvis Landry, WR CLE
There was hope this off-season (one I shared) that the appearance of Odell Beckham would not crush Landry’s fantasy value. It’s taken a few weeks but his target share has definitely come back to more of what we expected. I think it will continue.
Paris Campbell, WR IND
We are dynasty! If anyone is (weirdly) surprised their rookie WR has not done much yet, now would be a good time to pounce on him. His target share has risen to a point where we can start to believe he may be “proving something” as a rookie. It’d be rough to need production from him, but positive signs for a rookie should always be of interest in dynasty.
Will Dissly, TE SEA
Honestly? I think we should believe in Dissly. If anyone’s selling fast based on the fact this “shouldn’t be happening,” it’s worth knowing that his schedule is fairly decent and his target share is real (all be it on a low-volume offense.) That means you could trade for him, use him, and then trade him away for more, potentially.
Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
Rising. Running back targets are the fantasy gold we are looking for and a player returning from injury, who has improved with better matchups, and may well be working himself back into a three-down role, could be a league winner by week 16. Or it was just because Ito Smith was in the concussion protocol last week. Atlanta has been a fantasy feast for opposing offenses this season which could lead to both of them getting extra work. But whoever has the targets is the best target.
Jack Doyle, TE IND
Technically he only has two weeks where he improved in target share, but the drop between week two and three was small enough I felt this was unfair and included him anyway.
As we know, running back points are predicted best by snap percentage. We’ve seen four running backs continually improve in snap percentage through four weeks. All should be more interesting to us than other people because we know this. But everything is relative and “more interested” doesn’t always mean “worth rostering.” Use your judgement for your league’s settings and depth.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
He scored less than 10 PPR points last week and it shouldn’t really matter, especially in dynasty. The arrow of opportunity continues to point up for David Montgomery this year.
The Trend of the Week
I have some “weird” usage trends for three different players losing volume in their offenses that I wanted to highlight.
Marlon Mack, RB IND
Mack is on a very sad and lonely list. So what’s going on? Well he was injured, then played anyway, then was injured again last week. So, that’s part of it. You should also know these percentages are from the entire game, not just the part he played in. However, the net result is interesting.
The team has started to Use Nyheim Hines more. Just when you thought you had a free roster spot! Marlon Mack didn’t get a target last week, which we shouldn’t expect to happen every week or whenever he is healthy. However, I am starting to believe that Hines’ flex appeal is starting to return with his ten PPR points last week – especially since Mack’s health is still up in the air.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN
Minnesota’s passing volume is trending up, as we expected last week. Stefon Diggs was the biggest beneficiary in week four, and while I’m not worried about Adam Thielen overall, it’s weird that passing attempts went up and both their star players lost target share. No one gained, including Diggs! Instead Olabisi Johnson and Alexander Mattison had their first target share of the season and CJ Hamm continued to be a thing.
My conclusion is that both Thielen and Diggs are going to be in a tighter target share then the start of the season. Both will have good enough production to be rostered even in redraft and they may be frustrating week to week. Still, this team is acting weird right now. For me, that’s a red flag.
Sammy Watkins, WR KC
For several weeks, he’s been the target leader but not the point leader (since week one if we are honest). Regression is based on the idea of the volume is consistent. But Watkins’ volume is changing, in a bad way.
Demarcus Robinson hasn’t been the consistent in volume, Mecole Hardman has consistently been the fourth option. Spike weeks are likely to continue. On the other hand, Sammy Watkins has done nothing but bleed target share all season.
The volume can return (Robinson’s target share should come back down) but it’s very clear Watkins’ value rides with this offense. He’s not creating it. In dynasty, I’m a fan of trading away that kind of player, especially this situation, if I’m very much a contender. The value, whatever there is, can just vanish in too many ways at this point.
To save you all time and screenshots, I’ve decided to post last week’s UDud results on twitter instead. The full data is here.
You can see the updated UDud results and all the data form this week’s article here:
I don't know why I stress over this lil metric every week, it's just a target share article, but you know when you have that idea and you think "that'd be cool' and then no one tells you to not do that
yeah, anyway, UDud modifications improve pic.twitter.com/CdPA99ubPa
— Peter Howard (@pahowdy) October 2, 2019
Thanks again for checking this out.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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