Young Breakout Players for 2019
I recently wrote about trends in DLF’s ADP data. In doing the research, I found a number of developments concerning where sleepers come from year-over-year. Since this is way too tempting and I like you all, I figured I’d highlight some potential 2019 sleepers using those trends.
Breakouts
In reading up on breakout players, two things I’ve noticed in my research are breakout seasons are commonly preceded by the following:
1.) Above-average volume (compared to most players in that career year of drafted in the same draft round).
2.) A higher level of efficiency than their peer group.
For example, when I looked at wide receivers, I found that on average a breakout wide receiver averages above a 1.8 points per target the year before they “broke out” – we define a breakout as 100 receiving yards, 14 points per game or finishing in the top 24 at the position for the first time. The league average is around 1.69.
This led to thinking about efficiency as an “x” factor. It’s not sticky (players are usually not as efficient from one year to the next), so we usually take an average when making projections and trust in volume numbers (which again are sticky.) Think of efficiency in terms of regression to the mean. Who will not get as “lucky” in the red zone, for example?
While reading up on other people’s research I found some interesting articles by Blair Andrews on Rotoviz.com. Blair has found that while efficiency is unstable year-to-year, being efficient is a good sign for a player gaining more opportunity and fantasy points the following year using an Expected Fantasy Points model. I highly recommend reading his work. However, for now, I am using the Rotoviz expected points data (along with our trends) to go looking for Breakout players in 2019.
Expected Points
Expected points essentially assigns a value to every touch (reception and carry and throw) on the football field a player gets in a given year based on where on the field it was made. It then produces what an average player would score in fantasy points on those touches. If an individual scores more points than the average player would have done with his touches, he has a positive number of Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE.) In other words, he was efficient on his volume.
I replicated some of Blair’s research to confirm this for myself.
This table was made using Data from rotoviz.com and is based on all players since 2000 who played in both their rookie and sophomore years.
As you can see, only about 30-35% of rookies have positive FPOE seasons in their rookie year. And they do, in fact, average more opportunity and efficiency in their second seasons.
As such, they are a good group to plunder when searching for breakout players. We know the second year is one of the most common breakout years for every position (it’s actually year three for tight ends, and more players breakout in year four, but let’s not be too picky here).
So, who outperformed expected points in their first and second season in 2019? What creates the most likely breakout pool? And who is being drafted outside the starter ranges I defined in my ADP article?
Running Backs
The running backs with positive FPOE being drafted outside the top 24 and moving into their second and third year make up a very reasonable-sized list. I sorted them by expected points in the table below.
According to ADP trends, an average of three players typically break-in from outside the top 24 in ADP every year. Here are the best bets to do it from 2018:
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, RBs SEA
Nothing is helpful for this problem. One of them will probably tear away from the other and I like both at this point. However, I think the team will lean on draft capital bias eventually. Pay your money and take your chances on either right now, though.
Tarik Cohen, RB CHI
We’ve seen his upside but I think he’s probably going to struggle to get the same volume and efficiency in 2019 after David Montgomery has joined the team. This one is tough.
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
Like Cohen, he need touches, but unlike Cohen, they may be easier to find in 2019 if Melvin Gordon misses time.
Justin Jackson, RB LAC
I really like second-year players in 2019. I picked him up in a lot of leagues before the news broke on Gordon. Anyone remember Branden Oliver? Like Oliver, I think he could be good with short opportunity, However, like Oliver, he can always lose that opportunity quickly. I’m holding right now, but he’s worth getting some exposure to if you don’t’ have him anywhere.
Jaylen Samuels, RB PIT
What if he’s the new target we’re looking for and Donte Moncrief, James Washington just keep being what they’ve been so far? Just a thought. I like Jaylen Samuels at his ADP and think he has upside.
Dontrell Hilliard, RB CLE
He’s on the Browns now, as you may know because he’s already catching preseason buzz.
Wide Receivers
I did the same thing for wide receivers. On average, about four receivers who finish in the top 12 are drafted outside the top 24 each season.
Dede Westbrook, WR JAX
Westbrook is entering his third year, and on a team that doesn’t promise to be great. However, there may be upside given his consistent volume and performance through his first two years. We’re looking at a 1,000-yard and top-24 season as his potential upside.
Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
I’m not on this hype train, but this is yet more fuel for those who are.
Kendrick Bourne, WR SF
People forget Bourne had 12% of the team’s targets as a UDFA rookie in 2018. I believe the rumors about Dante Pettis struggling to separate himself from the crowd, and I think both he and Deebo Samuel profiled as underproductive in college – that makes me interested in Kendrick Bourne, though UDFAs “disappear” after doing good things more often than drafted players.
Christian Kirk, WR ARI
I still don’t believe Larry Fitzgerald is going to fade. However, I don’t think he needs to for Kirk to rise. Everything looks positive for Kirk moving into his second season this year. I’m heavily targeting him in trades and drafts.
Anthony Miller, WR CHI
It is nice to see Anthony Miller’s name again here as he seems a little forgotten. Allen Robinson should be the lead target in Chicago, but I still have hope for Miller. At his ADP, he’s very interesting.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR BUF
I know, right? Who? I have to admit he’d made no impression on me until he turned up this list. If I’m looking for a deep flyer on the Bills, McKenzie is the guy. If you are unfamiliar with him, he was drafted by Denver in the fifth round in 2017, but was quickly traded to Buffalo after the first game of the 2018 campaign. He had 16 receptions and 100 yards and has a 4.42-second 40-time on his resume, but very little else. However, he did well on his 16 receptions last year, and that’s not nothing. Nice job, Mr. McKenzie.
Josh Reynolds, WR LAR
I don’t know, maybe if Cooper Kupp doesn’t come back to the start the year? Reynolds has been good when he gets opportunity, but at this point it’s hard to argue he will fight and win opportunity without something else happening around him.
Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO
I’m a big fan of Tre’Quan Smith. I’m also a big fan of everyone forgetting about the guy who had two 100 receiving games with Drew Brees as a rookie.
Robert Foster, WR BUF
He wasn’t very productive in college and all signs out of preseason suggest he is struggling to gain any traction against his new competition for targets. The Bills are said to like him, but there may not be much here.
Tight Ends
First and second year tight ends with 25 or more Expected Points who had a positive FPOE year are listed below. On average, two of the top five players at this position are drafted outside the top 12 each season as well.
Mark Andrews and Mike Gesicki, two of my favorite dynasty targets at the position right now, don’t make this list. Andrews is being drafted as the TE12 right now and Gesicki had a negative season in FPOE in 2018 – this is not to say both cannot break out in 2019, but it’s why they didn’t make the cut using this method.
Chris Herndon, TE NYJ
He’s suspended for the first four games of the regular season, and that’s not good. However, he had one of the most promising rookie starts to a tight end career recently (outside of players who broke out in year one). I’m interested in him as the TE17.
Gerald Everett, TE LAR
He’s a little undersized but in his most likely breakout year on a very explosive team with positive efficiency last year working in his favor, I like him more than I thought I did. I think most will feel that way when they see his name on the list.
Ian Thomas, TE CAR
All in. I still like Greg Olsen and not everyone on the Carolina Panthers can breakout in 2019, but not many tight ends make this list after their rookie season and a lot of them who do work out eventually.
Jonnu Smith, TE TEN
Same as above. I think his path to starting is a longer route to that of Thomas, however. Delanie Walker looked good in the preseason and Smith has been struggling to get back to full health.
Mo Alie-Cox, TE IND
I just like it when the name of a really deep flyer I like comes up naturally. This doesn’t mean much on 26 expected fantasy points, but I’ll take it.
Will Dissly, TE SEA
I’d like him about as much as Mo Alie-Cox if he was as unknown as Mo Alie-Cox. But he’s not.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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