A View From the 1.05: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 20, 2019

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

Note: Our April super-flex rookie ADP is now available, so there is a possibility of seeing players already mentioned in previous editions of this series.

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1.05

The Pick: Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

If we could go back to the middle of the college football season, this would seem like a preposterous pick, but since a coming out party in the college football playoffs, former Alabama running back Josh Jacobs has ascended to the top of the ranks and is now seemingly locked into the RB1 spot for both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts. Jacobs doesn’t have the production that many value considering he was a backup for the Crimson Tide, but he does have traits that NFL teams covet. If mock drafts are to be believed, Jacobs is the only running back with a chance of being selected on day one of the NFL Draft.

Possible Pivots:

The current top four picks are all wideouts but a subpar landing spot or later than expected draft position could push any of N’Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, Hakeem Butler or AJ Brown down to this spot, which would represent excellent value.

Trade Value:

1.05 for 1.07, 4.07, 2020 fourth
1.05, 2020 first for Tyreek Hill, 2.10
1.05, 2.10 for Sony Michel, DeVante Parker, Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Super-Flex Options:

DK Metcalf, WR Mississippi

With presumed future Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray nearly locked in as the 1.01 pick in super-flex leagues, the top wideouts will fall. In this case, it is DK Metcalf. While he is a strong contender to be the top receiver drafted by an NFL team, dynasty players aren’t as convinced.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

You might have missed the release of the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer. If so, you’ll want to check that out immediately. Among its many uses is identifying the value of incoming rookie picks when compared to veteran players. I searched for the closest match among current NFL players in an effort to match the value of the 1.04 pick to give you an idea of what it might cost to acquire the pick, or who you could target if selling.

We are reaching the point of the first round in which uncertainty becomes a major factor. While there are clearly more than five very interesting prospects we covet, dynasty players must be concerned with landing spots and draft capital, which will eventually devalue some of the rookies we love. Because of that, the trade target in this case, Chargers wideout Mike Williams, represents a drop-off from previous Trade Analyzer matches.

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2.05

The Pick: Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray is such an interesting prospect from a dynasty perspective. Yes, he is an exciting player and he’s almost certain to be selected with the top overall pick, but he’s still a quarterback. Typically, dynasty players do not select a quarterback in rookie drafts until the later portion of round two, at the earliest. In Murray’s case, the weak overall quarterback class props him up a bit, as does the success of his former teammate, Baker Mayfield. We’ve seen Mayfield’s value explode in just one year and that projection is now being credited to Murray. In many leagues, you’ll see Murray selected in the first round.

Possible Pivots:

If you just can’t pull the trigger on a signal caller this early, or if Murray is in fact already off the board, the options are still numerous. They include one of my personal favorites, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, as well as Rodney Anderson, Andy Isabella and Justice Hill.

Trade Value:

2.05, Tyler Boyd for 2021 first, Willie Snead
2.05, 1.12 for 2020 first
2.05, 1.05, 2020 firs’ for Le’Veon Bell

Super-Flex Options:

Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina

South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel is a rock-solid prospect but is viewed as having limited upside. That, along with a lengthy injury history has pushed him into the second-round range in both single quarterback leagues as well as super-flex. The NFL seems split on Samuel too as he’s been projected anywhere from late first round to day three of the NFL Draft.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

It’s another Samuel, Carolina wide receiver Curtis Samuel, who matches the value of the 2.05 when it comes to talking trade. After an injury ended his rookie season, Samuel emerged to help the Panthers and regain dynasty value in the process. Per our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, Samuel would be a fair swap with the 2.05 pick.

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3.05

The Pick: Alex Barnes, RB Kansas State

Former Kansas State back Alex Barnes entered the Combine as a virtual unknown in the dynasty community but after some impressive work, especially in the agility drills, Barnes became a fast riser. There has even been talk he could be selected on day two of the NFL Draft, which would boost his dynasty value even more. Barnes was an impressive producer for the Wildcats, accounting for over 38% of the team’s yardage and touchdowns. Unfortunately, he offers little upside as a receiver, which could limit his appeal to dynasty players.

Possible Pivots:

Other players being selected in this range, according to our pre-draft rookie ADP, include Benny Snell, Riley Ridley and Bryce Love.

Trade Value:

3.05, 2.04, 2.11, 3.04 for Dede Westbrook, OJ Howard
3.05 for Jalen Richard
3.05, 3.01, Jonnu Smith for 2020 second, Javorius Allen

Super-Flex Options:

Barnes

Despite the multiple quarterbacks being selected ahead of him in the super-flex format, the running back Barnes also holds down the 3.05 pick in this data set.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

You might remember from the previous edition of this series that the 3.04 pick matched well with Panthers tight end Ian Thomas. Following that article, I went shopping and was able to acquire Thomas for a future third-rounder in one league. This pick matchup is similar as the 3.05 aligns with the value of Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. This show that these high-upside young tight ends are being undervalued and make excellent trade targets.

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4.05

The Pick: Preston Williams, WR Colorado State

You won’t find many players available in the fourth round that possess the talent or upside of wide receiver Preston Williams. Of course, there is a reason for that. Williams finished his career with Colorado State after transferring from Tennessee. Williams was a five-star recruit out of high school despite an ACL injury his senior season. In Knoxville, he was involved in a domestic altercation and was suspended following multiple arrests. These red flags are reportedly enough for multiple NFL teams to take Williams completely off their draft boards. The story will be the same as with many other players in the past. Dynasty owners will need to decide if they are willing to accept the risks that accompany the talent with this player. In the fourth round of rookie drafts, the answer should be simple.

Possible Pivots:

There are several other receivers being selected in this range, including Mecole Hardman, DaMarkus Lodge and Greg Dortch.

Super-Flex Options:

Mecole Hardman, WR Georgia

The versatile and speedy Hardman is very likely to be selected much earlier that dynasty players are giving him credit for in the pre-draft process. Thanks to his special teams prowess, Hardman will be an asset NFL teams seek out and then it will be up to fantasy players to quickly assess how he might be used with his new team.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.