A View From the 1.05: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 22, 2018

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

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1.05

The Pick: Rashaad Penny, RB San Diego State

After the proverbial “west coast bias” kept him out of the spotlight for much of the season, dynasty owners have used the early off-season to familiarize themselves with San Diego State back Penny, who could be a second-round NFL Draft pick, which would likely lock him into a top-five spot in rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

There will likely be many reasonable ways dynasty owners can go with the fifth pick. Other than Penny, one of the Georgia backs, Sony Michel or Nick Chubb, could fall to this spot and there is a good chance the top fantasy receiver, whoever that might be, is available with this pick.

Trade Value:

As expected, the trade value is starting to wain as dynasty owners become less comfortable with the available options. Here are some recent deals involving the 1.05 rookie pick.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 1.11, 2.11, 2019 third for Julius Thomas, 1.05
Amari Cooper for Terrance Williams, 1.05, 1.06
Dalvin Cook for Chris Godwin, 1.05
Will Fuller, Quincy Enunwa for Jameis Winston, 1.05, 2.05
Adam Thielen for Tom Brady, 1.05

Super-Flex Options: Nick Chubb, RB Georgia

We’ve had a pair of quarterbacks drafted in the top four of our 2QB rookie data, pushing Chubb down to the fifth pick. Essentially, the 1.05 pick is super-flex leagues will be the equivalent of the third pick in typical leagues. This is a huge bonus to all players of this format.

2.05

The Pick: Kalen Ballage, RB Arizona State

While he looks the part of a dominant player, Ballage has simply never lived up to that billing. In fact, he wasn’t even the Sun Devils’ lead back at any point in his college career. The metrics and measurables are enticing, but the production is lacking, to say the least. I could see many players jumping ahead of Ballage once the real rookie drafts kick off, including some mentioned below.

Possible Pivots:

Rather than using a mid-second round pick on the hope of Ballage turning into something, I would much rather take my TE1 (Mike Gesicki) or QB1 (Lamar Jackson) at this spot. While you might disagree with the players, the position related targets remain the same.

Trade Value:

Michael Crabtree for 2.05
1.07 for 2.05, 2019 first
Jerick McKinnon, Cooper Kupp, Elijah McGuire, 1.09 for Alshon Jeffery, Austin Ekeler, James Conner, 2.05
T.J. Yeldon for 2.05

Super-Flex Options: John Kelly, RB Tennessee

It’s the same old story…a talented skill position player is falling and offering very nice value due to the abundance of valuable quarterbacks in this class. Kelly’s pass-catching skills are intriguing to dynasty players looking for the newest version of last year’s rookie sensation Alvin Kamara. While I don’t expect Kelly to replicate what we saw from the Saints Rookie of the Year, I do think Kelly can be a factor, making him a steal in the mid-second.

3.05

The Pick: Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma

Although he’s lost some value since the season concluded, Oklahoma’s Mark Andrews should still be viewed as a prime prospect and could be in line for immediate playing time as a rookie. There has even been speculation that Andrews and his college teammate Baker Mayfield could end up on the same NFL team, which would be a major boost to the value of both.

Possible Pivots:

The entire third round is flush with strong targets for dynasty owners, presuming there is roster space to stash players at the end of the bench. Among the players that should be considered in the middle of the third round are Clemson’s Deon Cain and North Carolina State’s Nyheim Hines.

Trade Value:

John Brown for John Ross, 3.05
Jamison Crowder, James Conner for David Njoku, 3.05
Ameer Abdullah for 3.05, 3.09
Malcolm Mitchell, 4.08 for 3.05
Trey Burton, 3.09, 3.12 for 2.06, 3.05

Super-Flex Options: DJ Chark, WR LSU

LSU’s Chark has been one of the top risers throughout this off-season, but I’m not buying it. Maybe I’ve been turned off by the insufferable Tigers’ offense in recent seasons or it could be my history of avoiding wideouts earning most of their value through their speed. Regardless, Chark is a player that won’t end up on many of my rosters.

4.05

The Pick: Simmie Cobbs, WR Indiana

Indiana’s Cobbs is a player who has gotten almost no attention from the dynasty community. While I don’t have huge expectations for him, I could see him gaining some post-NFL Draft value and easily being worthy of a pick in the fourth round of rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

Once you get to the fourth round and beyond of rookie drafts, there is really no such thing as a reach, so if you like a player, make the pick. Others to consider if Cobbs does gain value and is off the board include Justin Jackson of Northwestern or South Carolina tight end Hayden Hurst.

Super-Flex Options: Hayden Hurst, TE South Carolina

Speaking of Hurst, he falls to this pick in the super-flex format. As previously mentioned, his age has scared off some dynasty owners, which will make him even more of a value.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.