2018 Rookie Profile: Royce Freeman, RB Oregon

Richard Jenkins Posted On March 28, 2018

The roller coaster ride that is the running back position in fantasy football is not for the faint of heart. The March 2018 ADP data here at DLF shows 11 running backs featured in the dynasty startup top 24 overall. Looking back at the ADP data from March 2017, we see eight running backs in the top 24 and in March 2016 there were only four recorded running backs in that range.

This 2018 crop of rookie backs is oozing with talent and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few of these names crack the top two-dozen in the proceeding seasons. With the right landing spot, Royce Freeman could be one of those guys sneaking into that very discussion.

Production Profile

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A four-year starter at the University of Oregon, Freeman ranks seventh all-time in NCAA Division I FBS career rushing yards. Freeman is also statistically the best running back to play at Oregon, holding school records in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and his 5,647 total offensive yards are the highest in team history among non-quarterbacks.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

A five-star recruit (247sports), Royce Freeman burst onto the scene as a freshman, leading the Ducks to the National Championship game along with quarterback Marcus Mariota. His 1,365 rushing yards as a freshman initially ranked him sixth in single-season rushing yards in Oregon football history, a mark which he dwarfed as a sophomore (1,836 yards, first all-time). Freeman was named a Freshman All-American and he backed that up by earning first-team All-Pac 12 honors following his sophomore campaign. Freeman currently holds three of the top ten rushing seasons in Ducks history.

A flurry of offensive coaching changes derailed Freeman’s production during his junior season. Oregon lost offensive coordinator Scott Frost before the season and then following the team’s disappointing 4-8 season, head coach Mark Helfrich was fired. Amongst the offensive disarray, Freeman still toppled 1,000 all-purpose yards and scored ten touchdowns in what turned out to be his worst statistical season. He rebounded as a senior, rushing for another 1,400-yard season while adding 16 touchdowns to his stellar resume.

Game Tape

Freeman has the physical profile and tools required to be a three-down back, with the elite college production to back it up. His combination of field vision and excellent footwork bodes well for an inside power runner. He is a patient runner who waits for the blocking scheme to set up and he has the power to lower the shoulder on safeties in the open field. He is also a proven pass catcher, hauling in 79 passes for an impressive 10.3 yards per reception. DLF writer Bruce Matson also touched on Freeman’s running and pass catching ability in his latest version of the Charting the 2018 Running Back Class series.

Durability will also never be in question with this guy. Freeman played in 51 of 53 possible collegiate games during his tenure and he registered over 1,000 total touches during that span.

One of the main criticisms of Freeman’s game is his lack of quickness and speed. As if his 10.3 YPR wasn’t enough, he also averaged 5.9 yards per carry on 947 total rushing attempts and consistently broke off 15+ yard runs. He ran a 4.54 forty at the combine which is especially impressive considering his 5’11”, 229-pound frame. To boot, Freeman’s speed score rating was 107.8, which puts him in the 85th percentile of all running backs. Surely all of these metrics will put the quickness and speed discussion to bed.

Measurables

When looking at Freeman’s spider chart courtesy of Mock Draftable, the first thing that jumps out at me is his percentiles compared to the field. Only three metrics fell below 54% (Bench Press, 60 Yard Shuttle, and Vertical Jump), and his chart compares favorably to Jordan Howard, Larry Johnson, and Eddie Lacy, all of whom have had multiple RB1/RB2 seasons in their careers.

It is also worth noting that Freeman performed very well in the 3-Cone Drill (72nd-percentile), 20 Yard Shuttle (71st-percentile), and Broad Jump (51st-percentile) despite his heavier frame (86th-percentile).

Dynasty Value

As of March 2018, Royce Freeman is going on average as the 11th player (RB7) in the DLF rookie mock drafts run by Ryan McDowell. In the rookie mocks, Freeman has been drafted as high as the 1.08 and as low as the 2.03, so a late first round rookie pick should be enough to land him on your roster. He is right in the middle of a running back hoard that consists of Ronald Jones, Rashaad Penny, and Kerryon Johnson. For me personally, I would be comfortable spending the 1.08 for him as I have Freeman ranked as the fifth best RB, behind Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb and Penny. I also have Freeman ranked behind the pass catchers Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, and James Washington.

Conclusion

Royce Freeman has the build, skills, and elite production profile that resembles an every-down starting running back in the NFL .One thing I will be paying special attention to during the NFL draft is what draft capital an NFL team is willing to spend on Freeman. If a team uses a day two pick on him (or trades up into the second or third round, like the Chiefs did with Kareem Hunt last year), it will be a clear indicator that the team will be looking for Freeman to compete for the starting gig. Indianapolis, Seattle, Detroit, and Tampa Bay immediately come to mind as RB needy teams who could spend fairly high capital on a running back. If Freeman falls into the right situation, I believe we will have a future RB1 on our hands.

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