Charting the 2018 Running Back Class: Royce Freeman
If you’re into devy leagues, then you are more than likely very familiar with Royce Freeman. It feels like he’s been one of the top collegiate running backs for the last decade. Well, it might not have been that long, but it definitely feels like an eternity.
It’s not a secret anymore that this year’s draft is stacked to the gills with running back talent. Freeman is one of those talented backs, but he’s one of the few who can compete for a three-down role at the NFL level. There are a lot of specialty backs in this class, but there are just a few who could develop into a feature back for their perspective teams. By being able to catch the ball out of the backfield and run between the tackles, Freeman is a multi-faceted back who can be deployed in multiple different ways.
The majority of fantasy owners play in point per reception leagues. Running backs who are capable of catching the ball out of the backfield have an advantage in this scoring system. Freeman’s use in the passing game during his collegiate career indicates that he has the potential to be used heavily as a receiver out of the backfield. Last year, he had 9.7 yards per target. Also, according to PFF, he ranked 25th in the nation amongst running backs with 1.03 yards per route run.
Freeman was very efficient during his senior season, catching 82.35 percent of the passes thrown his way. Oregon’s offense passed the ball 311 times last year, ranking 109th in the nation, and Freeman commanded 5.47 percent of those targets. It’s easy to be concerned with his low ownership in Oregon’s passing game, but his senior season was the least productive year of his career. However, he has shown in previous seasons that his team can lean on him as a suitable pass-catching option out of the backfield. During his sophomore season, he caught 26 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns, just enough production to insinuate that he can catch passes on a regular basis.
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Even though he put up decent statistics, he still had suboptimal ownership of Oregon’s offensive production during his freshman and junior seasons. During his sophomore and senior seasons, Freeman proved to be a key staple of his team’s offense with at least a 28 percent ownership of the team’s offensive production during both of those seasons. From an efficiency standpoint, we have seen the best and worst during his career.
If we focus on his best seasons then we know he have a workhorse back who is more than capable of carrying the load for an NFL team. The downside is that his lackluster seasons are a little bit concerning, because they suggest that he could be a suboptimal producer at the next level. I’m leaning towards the notion that he provided just enough production to prove to us that he has the potential to breakout and be a high-end fantasy producer.
During his freshman season, he would’ve had to accumulate more than 2,000 total yards to have a 25 percent market share of Oregon’s total offense. It’s harder to have a large market share of an immensely high-volume offense. The offense is generating so much volume that it’s hard for one player to produce an elite level market share total. That’s something to be aware of when evaluating player’s market share figures.
The chart above is derived from an 11-game sample, equating to a total of 211 carries.
With him being a 229-pound back, it’s not hard to imagine him getting the bulk of his carries between the tackles. Oregon ran a spread offense, and it was easier to design runs for Freeman up the gut of the defense. Due to the opposing defense being spread out trying to cover multiple receivers on the field, Freeman received the luxury of not having to run against stacked boxes.
With 25.35 percent of his runs designed to go to the outside, he proved that he can also kick his runs to the perimeter of the defense. Backs his size don’t usually attempt many outside runs. If anything, this adds some versatility to his game.
The statistics in the chart above reflect how many times he lined up in the listed formations. The data is derived from an 11-game sample.
It’s not alarming to see running backs receive most of their carries out of shotgun. Most offenses in college football run spread formations. The more running backs I chart; the more I see running out of the spread. I’m not concerned about him being able to adapt to a “pro-style” offense. Most running backs who operate out of the spread in college will easily adapt their game to a different offensive system.
The chart above is derived from an 11-game sample, equating to a total of 211 carries.
Like most running back prospects, most of his rushing attempts went for short gains. One thing to note is that 33.18 percent of his runs went for seven yards or more. It’s a good sign seeing a 229-pound back being able to consistently break off sizeable gains. From watching the tape, it appears he doesn’t have the long speed to be a threat to score from anywhere on the field. With just 5.69 percent of his runs going for 16 yards or more, it’s quite apparent that his lack of speed prevented him from blowing by the defense for long touchdown runs.
Freeman ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at the combine which is fast enough to get the job done. We just need him to rush for large chunks of yardage once he hits the open field. Not all running backs are capable of burning the opposing defense for 80-yard touchdown runs. There have been plenty of running backs who’ve been successful in the NFL who ran slower than Freeman. He doesn’t need to be a homerun hitter to be a high-end fantasy asset.
SUMMARY
I like Freeman. He’s a very underrated back. Landing spot is going to dictate his value for me. If he gets drafted by the right team, he could possibly creep into the mid-first-round of rookie drafts. Due to his 10.60 rookie ADP, he has a very palatable price tag. I’m definitely buying him at that price point because it’s hard to get a running back with his pedigree in the later portions of the first round. Since this is a loaded running back class, there are other running backs ranked behind him who I like almost as much. I wouldn’t be against trading back to get an equivalent talent for extra draft picks.
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