2024 NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookies with Injury Concerns
Coming off the NFL Draft, hundreds of players have new homes as they begin their professional careers. Some players landed in fantastic situations with the opportunity to produce immediately. Others may need to wait their turn while several more could have their season impacted by pre-existing injuries.
Today’s post-draft injury article highlights any injury concerns that came out just before the draft, lingering issues that may have caused guys to drop, and how their new homes may impact their fantasy draft status or production moving forward.
Brian Thomas, WR JAC
As one of the top wide receivers in the NFL Draft not named Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, or Rome Odunze, Thomas was still a first-round selection drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars 23rd overall. Before the draft, he was seen as a healthy player who only had one documented concussion in his injury history. However, a report from Albert Breer from Sports Illustrated came out several days before the draft stating Thomas has a lingering left shoulder injury. He went on further to state he may need surgery and this is something he has been playing through.
Based on the wording, he may have been playing through a labrum tear in his shoulder. This cartilage rim helps deepen the shoulder socket and provides stability for the head of the humerus to move within the shoulder joint. Having a tear in there is like having a chip in a golf tee, it takes less effort to knock the ball off the tee. In Thomas’s case, this would lead to more shoulder instability such as subluxations or dislocations.
Teams were very aware of this injury and the risks associated with it. The issue moving forward is if he suffers a reinjury to the area during the season. In the event of injury, he would have increased difficulty blocking, high-pointing catches, and even catching balls away from his body, especially to the left side. This injury is not much of an issue until he suffers a re-injury.
Plenty of players have played through this injury with varying levels of success including George Kittle and Odell Beckham Jr who never got theirs repaired. Unfortunately, players like Anthony Miller and Zay Jones struggled through their respective tears and required surgery. Thomas Jr is not someone you should avoid drafting, but know he could miss time and struggle during the season should he injure the shoulder again. Thomas is currently at 1.07 in the MFL Rookie Dynasty ADP and should be drafted at that position. However, be ready to pivot for a short-term replacement but there are minimal longevity concerns if he gets the labrum repaired.
Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
McConkey came in as one of the most talented wide receivers in this year’s draft but also came in with numerous injury concerns. With a history including missing multiple games due to back soreness, foot and collarbone fractures, ankle sprains, and knee tendinitis, there are durability concerns on top of being on the smaller side.
He was the ninth wide receiver off the board, selected early in the second round. His injury history may have scared off several teams but overall did not push him far down the board. Going to the Los Angeles Chargers with Justin Herbert may be a blessing in disguise. Having one of the best young passers in the game, a new offensive-minded head coach, and if Quentin Johnston doesn’t take that next step, McConkey has the chance to see early action in the Chargers offense.
His injury history should not scare you away from drafting him, but he may have to work through injuries or the occasional missed game. The potential production far outweighs any injury concerns for McConkey. At 1.12 according to MFL Rookie Dynasty ADP, McConkey is in a great spot to move a few spots up for. He landed in a great spot and could pay dividends immediately.
Adonai Mitchell, WR IND
Reports came out through the draft process about Mitchell’s Type I diabetes diagnosis which led to discussions about his character and ability to manage his condition. Drafted late in the second round by the Indianapolis Colts as the 11th wide receiver off the board, Mitchell may have fallen a bit due to character, but it wasn’t due to his diabetes diagnosis.
For a player who has Type I diabetes to play Division I football and excel requires a baseline level of managing his blood sugars effectively. There may be times when his blood sugars do drop and he gets irritable/anxious, but this shouldn’t be attributed to character concerns. There are multiple instances of players playing with Type I diabetes and succeeding including Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Walking into an NFL facility with nutrition plans tailored to him and proper management, there shouldn’t be any concerns. His only notable injury was a high-ankle sprain during the 2022 season that has no long-term concerns.
With the opportunity to be the number two option behind Michael Pittman Jr and a healthy Anthony Richardson, Mitchell landed in a great situation to get targets but not with the pressure of being the number one option. At 2.04 in the MFL Rookie Dynasty ADP, Mitchell is an excellent option as a second-tier wide receiver should you miss out in the first round or have other more pressing needs.
Michael Penix, QB ATL
This one boggles the mind. The Falcons paid Kirk Cousins A LOT of money to be the starting quarterback for potentially the next four years despite coming off an Achilles tear. Then they drafted an older prospect in Penix with a significant injury history in the first round. Quarterbacks coming off Achilles tears have reliably returned to their prior level of performance even at Cousins’ age.
I can see how hedging against Cousins’ not getting through the next four years, instead taking the Patrick Mahomes or Jordan Love approach in sitting Penix to develop, but the contract still isn’t set up for that. There does appear to be an out for Cousins after two years with a dead cap hit of $25 million, but still a hefty price tag for someone who won’t play for you. This does allow Penix to adjust to an NFL offense and adapt his body, but this was certainly a curious decision.
This certainly hurts Penix’s dynasty draft stock now and for the future. At 2.07 in the MFL Rookie Dynasty ADP, the only way he’s worth selecting is if you are rebuilding over at least the next two seasons. Handcuffing him to Cousins could be in play, but that takes up roster spots. If he does fall, he could be used as trade bait should he see playing time this year if Cousins is out. On top of that, how will his durability be at the next level? He’s certainly worth a draft selection but not worth a high pick to sit on your bench for an unknown amount of time.
Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR
Coming off an ACL tear from late November, Brooks was still the highest drafted back, selected by Carolina in the middle of the second round. There have been reports of Brooks being ready by training camp and that could certainly be in play depending on his rehab progress.
Ideally, he has a rehab similar to what Breece Hall went through coming off his rookie-year ACL tear. Hall didn’t appear to lose a step and began producing immediately for a bad Jets offense. Unfortunately, I don’t expect a similar outcome for Brooks going up a level of competition and timing of the injury. He may be able to play but won’t be pre-ACL injury Brooks this year. As the Panthers are still rebuilding, they were smart to take Brooks with the potential he brings in year two.
At 1.09 according to MFL Rookie Dynasty ADP, it appears high for someone who may not play much during his rookie year. Trey Benson is currently at 2.01 and is much better value immediately, especially behind an aging James Conner. Brooks is a great selection for a rebuilding team and could be impactful in year two when he returns to form.
Brock Bowers, TE LV
Bowers was drafted into an offensive-heavy room with the likes of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Gallup. Add in Michael Mayer, last year’s second-round draft pick. This could allow the Raiders to go into 12 personnel and make Bowers a key offensive weapon.
Despite coming off the high-ankle sprain last season that led to Tightrope surgery, there are no long-term concerns for Bowers. He is currently 1.05 according to MFL Rookie Dynasty ADP and should be taken higher if you need a tight end. Otherwise, the drop-off is steep if you miss out. His production. may only be limited in his production due to Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew’s play.
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- 2024 NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookies with Injury Concerns - May 7, 2024
- Rookies with Injury Concerns: Quarterback - April 24, 2024
- Rookies with Injury Concerns: Running Back - April 21, 2024
