Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Justin Jefferson, Jameson Williams and Rashee Rice
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
The 2025 NFL Owners’ meeting is currently ongoing. I for one have no doubt they’ll continue to make decisions in the best interests of the players, with little to no focus on the financials.
April Fools…?
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From the old-school webform…
Jefferson Starship
The owner in my 12-team, 1QB, PPR league who picked Justin Jefferson in our startup is looking at a rebuild. I’ve offered Jameson Williams, 2025 pick 1.09, and my 2026 first for him. He seems intrigued. Does this seem like a good move considering the amount of young talent I’ve got? I’m a little concerned about JJ McCarthy and how he affects Jefferson. After finishing fourth this season, I’d obviously be making this move to push for a championship in 2025.
I’m also considering offering Williams and pick 1.09 for Rashee Rice. Everything in dynasty feels so permanent and I’m wondering if these seem like savvy moves or pure desperation plays to push my team over the hump? – Lee in VA
While as usual we’ll begin with the output from the DLF Trade Analyzer, there’s an important caveat here. And that is: we’re talking about Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson, who is popularly viewed as a top-two dynasty asset, just behind current Bengal and former LSU Tiger teammate Ja’Marr Chase. And at the risk of overstating the obvious, this matters because he will likely be the best asset in 99% of the deals he’s in, and here we have no exception.
From a 10,000-foot perspective, I’m a huge fan of taking stock of your roster as early as possible in advance of a coming season. And if you’ve determined that you’re a rebuilding squad, then assets such as Williams and two first-round picks are sensible adds. But I’m just not sure Jefferson is a player with whom I’d be looking to part.
Despite breaking in a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, Jefferson was once again his efficient self in finishing the year as the PPR WR2. Yes, he was well back of Chase in the pole position, but he still finished as a weekly PPR WR1 eight times, and a PPR2 or better 11 times. He scored double digits in all but three weeks, including a week 18 affair where the Vikings were erased by the Lions. I’m not exactly breaking news here, but the guy is pretty good.
And given the way he entered the league without the need for training wheels, it’s no surprise that his efforts across his five NFL seasons have yielded substantial returns. 26% of weekly efforts resulting in top-five finishes is truly mind-bending, as is nearly half of his weeks yielding PPR WR1 output. All told he’s only provided you with unusable efforts roughly one-fifth of the time.
So while I’m sensitive to the fact Jefferson will now be breaking in his third starting quarterback in six seasons, it hasn’t mattered to date. Kirk Cousins is (was?) an above-average signal caller, and Jefferson flourished with him. Sam Darnold was a reclamation project, and Jefferson again provided sublime returns. I have my doubts about JJ McCarthy, especially given his limited collegiate profile – but he was a first-round NFL draft pick, which remains the best and most consistent attribute for establishing quality pro output. Even if there are growing pains, I don’t see any reason why Jefferson would fall off.
Given this, and given the fact he’s still only 25 years old, this is the profile of a fairly unimpeachable dynasty asset. But, it’s not for me to “yuck someone’s yum” – rather, I can provide data-driven argument and opinion, but ultimately beauty is in the eye of the dynasty beholder. If a rebuilding squad believes they’re buying low on certain assets, or even selling high on Jefferson, then subjectively is surely welcome!
Given this, let’s give some consideration to the other side of the deal.
While he doesn’t approach Jefferson as an NFL or fantasy asset, Williams took a big step forward last season, ultimately finishing as the PPR WR22. In doing so, he shed a bit of his boom-or-bust nature, compiling double figures in all but five contests. He also showed a reasonably high ceiling, with four games of 22.6 or more PPR points. It’s fair to reason that Williams’ integration in the offense was a direct contributor to teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown dropping 20 PPR points from his 2023 total despite an additional game, and Sam LaPorta falling from the 2023 PPR TE1 to last year’s PPR TE7.
His numbers are also fairly projectable moving forward. Not surprisingly, as a big play threat he gets the majority of his points from receiving yards. Receiving scores were only one-fifth of his PPR points, which to me is a good number – it means he’s shown the potential to get the ball in the end zone (seven touchdowns), but is nowhere near to maxing out that skill.
In short, Williams is an asset in whom I have interest, but he only represents the first leg of the theoretical 4×400 relay that is Jefferson. Can the other pieces get us the rest of the way around their track?
Continuing, there is perhaps nothing more subjectively objective than a rookie draft pick. Using Shrek’s comparison of an onion, the top layer of the pick represents a fluid, nebulous entity. As I’ve said before, before a name is put to the pick, the pick itself can’t get hurt, can’t get traded, and can’t hold out for more money. This is the “objective” component, in that this is an asset that, until more layers are peeled back, maintains its value.
But when you’re on the clock, and when maybe the players you hoped would be available aren’t, now we’ve peeled back more onion layers and have entered the land of subjectivity. In the year 2025, here’s what that might look like in the back half of the first round.
Injecting my subjectivity, I’d be extraordinarily happy if Emeka Egbuka or Tyler Warren were available. After that I have something of a tier drop – as such, for me, pick 1.09 represents massive risk. But, if you have Colston Loveland or Kaleb Johnson rated more highly, perhaps that doesn’t make a difference.
As for the 2026 pick, obviously the team getting Jefferson is going to worsen his or her pick. The early returns assert it could be a good year for quarterbacks, and perhaps receivers. If that’s of interest to you, then maybe it could be a solid investment. But it’s just too far off for me to be able to form a tangible opinion on the matter – the pick will undoubtedly increase in value over the next year, but soothsaying beyond that is challenging.
So for me, no matter what type of squad I have, I’d be taking the Jefferson side of the deal. As noted above I do have interest in Williams, but not as the lynchpin of a deal. Instead I’d be seeking a smaller consolidation deal, something similar to the below. The Trade Analyzer shows this as a worse deal, but I like the known quantity in Hall, even if running backs are not typically viewed as good assets for rebuilding teams. Other sensible additions for rebuilding teams would be Rome Odunze, Bucky Irving or Trey McBride.
To the second part of the question, this seems to me as a closer deal.
I actually provided my thoughts on Rice last week, which are as shown below:
“It’s true Rice is returning from a torn LCL and hamstring tendon that ended his season prematurely, and that’s worrisome for his immediate 2025 viability. But he will still only be 25 before the 2025 season begins, and as such any temporary drop-off is effectively the blink of an eye given his potential career longevity. Even if there’s an initial curve, I expect Rice to reassert himself as the team’s WR1 sooner rather than later.”
In a vacuum, I view Rice as the superior asset to Williams. I believe if he had stayed healthy he could have been the Chiefs version of Williams’ teammate St. Brown – a player who gets open in the intermediate part of the field and does damage after the catch. The injury may be of some concern in the early going of the season, but it’s not something that worries me long-term. I still view him as the Kansas City pass catcher to own.
Here again while I like the Williams side, I’d have to go with the alternative. It’s nothing against draft picks in general, but I just don’t have great thoughts on the 2025 class after the first few players go off the board. So once again for me to make a deal, I’d need to have something more concrete.
As always, rationale minds may differ. There’s a great chance many will prefer the pick to Downs, the young Colts receiver. But I personally view him as an ascending talent who has shown a rise to potentially becoming the team’s top pass catcher.
As seems to be the theme of this edition, subjectivity is the name of the game – the Downs trade is the version of the deal I’d personally prefer if I was rebuilding, but it might not be the same for others. This is the case for each hypothetical deal discussed herein, in that they are all fair and within the realm of reason. As we know there is no accounting for taste, only counting of championships when your gut proves correct!
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