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Dynasty Trending Observations: Russell Wilson, Stefon Diggs sign and Brandon Aiyuk

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Stefon Diggs | Credit: Troy Taormina
Michael Moore Posted On March 30, 2025
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The off-season is cooling off, but not for long. With the NFL Draft getting close, teams are making their last free-agent decisions, including a couple of notable ones below. Let’s see how they could alter your dynasty plans.

Danger Russ

 

It wasn’t long ago that quarterback Russell Wilson was churning out QB1 fantasy seasons like clockwork. He turned in eight seasons over his first nine with Seattle, providing a balance of passing stats and rushing yardage. It wasn’t flashy – he only threw more than 34 touchdowns once – but it worked and it was consistent. Then 2021 happened and the Russell Wilson experience has gone off the rails. He’s still a decent fantasy option, turning in at least QB2 numbers in each healthy season, but he can’t seem to find a home. After the shock trade to Denver before the 2022 season, his tenure there ended just two years later, where he then signed with the Steelers. He played all of 11 games before they decided to move on, which resulted in Wilson signing with the Giants. In all, he’ll play for his fourth team in five seasons in 2022.

If it seems like Wilson has been playing forever it’s because he has. His rookie season was 2012 – now 13 seasons ago – when Adrian Peterson was your MVP and the Ravens last won a Super Bowl. For dynasty purposes, Wilson has been an incredible value. But is his time up?

Dynasty Impact: While Wilson may not be the QB1 he was in Seattle, he could still turn in QB2 numbers in New York. He was a clear QB2 from week seven on (after returning from injury) in Pittsburgh. He’s also getting an upgrade at receiver in Malik Nabers who actually might be the best receiver he’s had since leaving Seattle. All Nabers did in his rookie season was catch 109 balls for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns and was the eighth-highest-scoring fantasy receiver despite missing two games. And that was with much fewer talented players around Nabers, including at quarterback.

If your win-now dynasty team needs a QB2 in your superflex league, Wilson is a reasonable option.

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Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Wilson would cost, at most, a late second-round rookie pick. The hit rates of rookies decline exponentially as you get later in the draft which makes Wilson look like a deal.

When Diggs Flies

 

What do you get when a desperate team is paired with an aging veteran looking to cash in one more time? Stefon Diggs to the Patriots. After trying in vain to lure an elite receiver to New England, the Patriots settled for the 31-year-old Diggs who, by the way, is coming off a torn ACL, and signed him to a big deal. In fairness to Diggs, he will elevate the receiver room in New England and be a much better option than anything Drake Maye had last year. But he’s still on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a major injury. And while he’s played at a Pro Bowl level in the past, he can also be temperamental and affect the locker room.

For the Patriots, it’s clear that Diggs was a backup option. After other receivers expected to hit free agency stayed with their original team – Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin – the Patriots had to do something with all that cap space.

So now that the marriage is finalized, what does it mean for everyone’s dynasty prospects?

Dynasty Impact: Because New England is one of the few places where Diggs can still be considered the top target, his dynasty value should see a boost or, at least, remain steady. Currently, Diggs checks in at about WR60 or a WR5 on a deep dynasty roster.

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But that value may represent a bargain. Through the first eight games of the season last year, before Diggs tore his ACL, he was in the top ten in fantasy scoring and was well on his way to another 1,000-yard season. Currently the cost for Diggs is a late second.

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I would pay that even assuming the Patriots add more receivers in the upcoming draft. Diggs will be a veteran presence whose tenure, while possibly short, will still have value.

Brandon Variable

 

This other receiver coming back from an ACL injury probably won’t be with another team when he does, but it will still be a different world. 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL in week seven, missing the rest of the 2024 season. And if the post above is true, he could miss several weeks to start the new season.

When he does, he’ll no longer have Deebo Samuel in the receiver room after the latter was traded to Washington in the off-season. Instead, Aiyuk will be joined by quasi-breakout star Jauan Jennings and second-year receiver Ricky Pearsall. But without Samuel there, Aiyuk is the clear alpha on the offense, torn ACL and all. So how will this new reality affect your plans for Aiyuk in dynasty leagues?

Dynasty Impact: Aiyuk will enter his age-27 season coming off a major knee injury. And unlike Diggs last season, he was slumping when the injury occurred. He was barely a top-50 fantasy receiver when he went down, with exactly one game totaling over 50 receiving yards. That could be contributing to the sharp decline in his dynasty value.

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So instead of a top-20 dynasty receiver, he slipped to top-30 status. That cost may be too much when acquiring him. According to our DLF Trade Analyzer, he’d cost a first-round rookie pick. If you can trade him away for that, I would do it. If you can acquire him for less than that, I would do it. But I’d hesitate to pay full value until we have a better idea of when he’ll return and if he’ll be just as good.

Michael Moore
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