Dynasty Decision: Kenneth Walker
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Kenneth Walker, RB SEA
Walker burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022, quickly becoming a fantasy darling after Rashaad Penny went down with an injury. He put up impressive numbers and showed a combination of burst and toughness that made him look like a long-term RB1. However, fast forward to 2025, and the situation in Seattle has shifted dramatically. They have changed offensive coordinator and traded away their starting quarterback and star wide receiver. So, dynasty managers are left wondering if Walker is still a long-term asset or if it’s time to cash in.
Previous Performance
Walker’s rookie season was electric. Taking over in week six after Penny’s injury, he rattled off a stretch of RB1 weeks, finishing the year with over 1,000 rushing yards and nine touchdowns despite not starting the entire season. His efficiency numbers were strong, with 4.6 yards per carry and a solid breakaway run rate. After week six, Walker was a top-ten back, averaging an impressive 16.1 points per game.
In 2023, Walker was expected to fully take over the backfield, but the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. Walker maintained a lead role but saw his raw touch volume dip, and overall usage became less consistent. He still finished with over 1,100 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns, but an RB20 overall season was a disappointment after the hopes of his rookie season.
Then came 2024, and the biggest issue was health. Walker missed time at the beginning of the season but also towards the end and only managed to see the field for 11 games total. The positive was a career-high 8.9% target share, which resulted in career highs in every major receiving category despite the missed time. Overall, he finished as the RB27 in the season, primarily due to missed time. He finished as the RB12 in points per game, averaging 16.5, but the week-to-week inconsistency left managers frustrated.
Situation and Usage
The situation Walker finds himself in is incredibly murky. The running back room is about the only part of the Seahawks’ offense that hasn’t undergone a drastic change. The Seahawks moved on from their offensive coordinator to bring in Klint Kubiak. They also traded away their starting quarterback Geno Smith, their star wide receiver DK Metcalf, and cut franchise stalwart Tyler Lockett. There is also expected to be significant change up front with the potential to change their starters at all three interior offensive line positions through trade, draft, or free agency.
So, any conversation about a situation and usage requires a lot of projection. What I expect to happen is for Klint Kubiak to install a run-first offense that is heavy on its usage of play-action and downfield shots from new quarterback Sam Darnold. That offensive system should be music to the ear of Walker as it will allow him to see more advantageous looks and will marry up the run and the passing game far more than they have in previous years. I also expect some investment in the interior of the offensive line, which will further help Walker. This appears overall to be an improvement on the 2024 season for Walker.
Contract
2025 is the final year of Walker’s rookie contract. This means now is the time for the Seahawks to either extend him or accept that he will likely hit free agency in 2026. I would expect conversations to already be starting around what each side is looking for, but there is unlikely to be an extension until the summer, and we’re past the draft.
This is not ideal for dynasty managers who would rather deal with certainty contractually, and the potential that Walker could be in a new home in 2026 is a knock to his overall cost and value.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB15 in February ADP and the 60th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.09 in the 2025 draft or a 2026 first and second-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Walker feels like a great player to discuss in dynasty right now. Some people will be incredibly nervous about the changes in the situation and the uncertainty around where he will be playing football next season and, therefore, be scared of him. In my opinion, that is what makes him appealing. He has a very high ceiling, given the offense could be transformed, and we know he is an explosive player who saw a significant uptick in receiving usage last season. Any time you can acquire a player like that on the cheap, which is a low-risk, high-upside swing, it is an appealing proposition.
The downside is Walker’s lack of longevity. He could have another four or five years of relevancy, but he could end up in a bad situation or split backfield next year. If you’re a contending team, Walker is the perfect high-upside RB2/3 to go a target and help push you over the top. However, if you’re not a true contender in 2025, it probably makes sense to look elsewhere and move on from the explosive back. I believe there is too much inherent risk in his future after the 2025 season to invest any significant amount of resources into the player. Yes, there is potential he could rise in value, but I would instead take that gamble on multiple lower-priced players or a rookie with greater situational longevity.
Walker is a considerable risk reward asset at the moment, so the question is your appetite for risk and whether you’re comfortable with it to potentially secure the enormous reward!
- Dynasty Decision: David Montgomery - April 18, 2025
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