Senior Bowl Week Performance Analysis
The Senior Bowl is an annual college football all-star game that showcases some of the top senior players in the country. The game is held in Mobile, Alabama, and it is attended by NFL scouts, coaches, general managers, and for the past two years, me.
For players, the Senior Bowl is an opportunity to showcase their skills and improve their draft stock. A strong performance at the Senior Bowl can help a player move up draft boards and increase his chances of being selected by an NFL team.
For NFL teams, the Senior Bowl is an opportunity to evaluate potential draft prospects up close. Scouts can get a better look at players’ physical attributes, athleticism, and football skills. Teams can also interview players and get a better understanding of their character and work ethic.
The Senior Bowl has a long history of helping players improve their draft stock. Some recent notable players who have had strong performances at the Senior Bowl include:
- Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (2024)
- Jayden Reed, WR Michigan State (2023)
- Puka Nacua, WR BYU (2023)
- DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama (2021)
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State (2020)
- Justin Herbert, QB Oregon (2020)
- Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma (2020)
The Senior Bowl is clearly an important event for NFL draft prospects, and it can have a significant impact on their draft capital. A strong performance at the Senior Bowl can help a player move up draft boards and increase their chances of being selected by an NFL team.
After attending the week in Mobile, reading some articles, and listening to quite a few podcasts, I’ve picked up on a plethora of names being thrown out there as “winners” of the Senior Bowl. Common sense would dictate that while there will be winners, they can not all be risers for the week, and it will take some whittling down to figure out who will actually hit in the NFL.
I went back to previous year’s articles from around the fantasy industry and names like Luke Musgrave, Michael Wilson, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Ben Sinnott, Tyjae Spears, Malik Willis, Christian Watson, Calvin Austin, and Jerome Ford were all listed as winners of the week, on top of many other names. Most of those players were disappointments and were likely even overdrafted because of their week in Mobile.
When evaluating these prospects, it’s important to not give too much weight to an individual week versus the rest of their college career. The question becomes, which of the “winners” of the 2025 Senior Bowl will actually hit in the NFL?
Senior Bowl Week Performance Does Not Match Collegiate Career:
Jack Bech, WR TCU
Bech had a great week in Mobile, ultimately catching the walk-off game-winning touchdown. I had a great view of that last play, and it showcased what Bech had been doing for most of the week.
Bech also had a great catch earlier in the game from a Jaxson Dart pass.
Bech had a great final season at TCU, but didn’t surpass 500 yards receiving in any other season. His 2024 receiving yards market share, yards per game, PPR points per touch, and yards per team pass attempt all at least doubled his previous best season. When given four years of data with one outlier season, I tend to trust the entire body of work rather than the small sample, so I will likely end up being lower on Bech than most, despite his solid week.
Tez Johnson, WR Oregon
Johnson also had a solid week in Mobile, getting open easily, especially in one-on-one situations. The obvious concern with Tez is his small stature, weighing in at 5’9 156 lbs. Add in his college stats, with an ADOT of 6.75 over the past two seasons, and we seem to have a slot-only type of WR, with a lower ceiling for fantasy football purposes.
Johnson will have a role on whichever NFL team drafts him, but I doubt he will ever become a true difference-maker for your dynasty teams. Where consensus ends up ranking Tez will be very important in determining if I end up rostering him on any of my squads.
Elijah Arroyo, TE Miami
Somehow this was the only clip I took of Arroyo, but I promise you he had a better week than this shows. Arroyo’s stats are the easiest to explain away, because of a nasty knee injury that wiped out most of his 2022 and 2023 seasons. Coming back to health in 2024, Arroyo showed big play ability, a solid ADOT of 11.0 yards, and a high PPR per touch of 3.89. Arroyo became one of my favorite “sleepers” after the Senior Bowl.
Senior Bowl Week Performance Matches Collegiate Career:
Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss
Dart had a slowish start to the week, putting the ball on the ground a couple of times early on day one, and then having a couple of errant throws later in the day. Everything changed on day two, with Dart solidifying himself as the clear winner of the Senior Bowl week(at least in my opinion). Jaxson showed his accuracy, arm strength, and ability to read a defense, all while completing some of the best passes of the entire week.
Dart had a slow start to his college career, but his last two seasons really showcase what we saw last week in Mobile. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the Ole Miss offense helping Dart look better than he actually is, so his thriving in an NFL setting was great to see. Since putting on a show in Mobile, Dart has risen in projected NFL Draft capital. Prior to the week, he was regularly projected to be drafted in the second or third round, but now consistently goes in the first round, even as high as 6th overall to the Raiders.
Pat Bryant, WR Illinois
Bryant got better each season of his college career, but the lackluster Illinois passing offense didn’t let him show off his true abilities until his senior season.
Bryant showed his route-running prowess, play after play during the Senior Bowl. This clip was the first of three plays in a row where Bryant torched the defender in one-on-ones.
I haven’t seen Bryant mentioned as much as Bech or Johnson, but he had just as good of a week as they did, if not better. I expect Bryant to be one of most rostered players, once rookie drafts hit.
The “Senior Bowl bump” is a real thing, but it’s important to focus on the right details when bumping players up our own fantasy football rankings. The week of practices in Mobile is a great peak at these players, but they won’t all hit in the NFL. Let’s keep the focus on the whole picture and not just a small sample, while taking advantage of league-mates who don’t look deeper.
- Senior Bowl Week Performance Analysis - February 10, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - January 3, 2025
- 2025 NFL Draft: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock - January 2, 2025
