Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2025 Mid 4th
It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are chomping at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four-pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those selections by analyzing the consensus from the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.
Historical Consensus Picks 5-8
2024
- 4.05 – Dylan Laube, RB LVR
- 4.06 – Jermaine Burton, WR CIN
- 4.07 – Jacob Cowing, WR SF
- 4.08 – Cade Stover, TE HOU
2023
- 4.05 – Tyler Scott, WR CHI
- 4.06 – Jayden Reed, WR GB
- 4.07 – AT Perry, WR DEN (Drafted by NO)
- 4.08 – Puka Nacua, WR LAR
2022
- 4.05 – Jeremy Ruckert, TE NYJ
- 4.06 – Kevin Harris, RB FA (Drafted by NE)
- 4.07 – Keaontay Ingram, RB KC (Drafted by ARI)
- 4.08 – Carson Strong, QB FA (UDFA signed By PHI)
Apparently, players drafted in this range either do absolutely nothing, or become high-end dynasty wide receivers, there is no in-between. Imagine being the dynasty manager in 2023 who passed on Puka Nacua and Jayden Reed to take Tyler Scott or AT Perry. Brutal!
Honestly, this is a pretty good representation of what you can expect with a mid-fourth round pick. You have a chance to find gold, but it’s more likely you drafted a player who will be on fantasy waiver wires before the end of their rookie season. Taking a look at last year’s picks, I wouldn’t care to have any of those players on my dynasty roster, except for maybe Laube and Burton in very, very deep leagues.
2025 Potential Options
- Kyle Monangai, RB Rutgers
- Ja’Corey Brooks, WR Louisville
- Pat Bryant, WR Illinois
- Luke Lachey, TE Iowa
- Trevor Etienne, RB Georgia
- Woody Marks, RB USC
- Jack Bech, WR TCU
- Raheim Sanders, RB South Carolina
- Terrance Ferguson, TE Oregon
- Jaylin Noel, WR Iowa State
It’s very early to forecast who will be drafted in this range after the NFL Draft. Draft capital is important for the players in this range. Any of these players could end up undrafted, which would push them outside of the top 48.
With that being said, there are some interesting names here, starting with Trevor Etienne. Travis’s brother made a name for himself at Florida, before transferring to Georgia. There was excitement for his junior year, but he suffered some injuries and failed to break out.
Jack Bech and Jaylin Noel were two players who helped out their draft stock at this year’s Senior Bowl, especially Bech who won the game’s MVP award after his emotional walk-off touchdown.
Why we love football.
Jack Bech dedicated his Senior Bowl week to his brother Tiger, who lost his life in the attack on Bourbon Street a month ago.
He scores the walk-off TD.
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) February 1, 2025
Trade Value
Knowing which prospects are worthy of being selected with these dynasty rookie picks is only half of the battle. It’s also important to know what these picks are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find worthwhile trades if you’re not as interested in the prospects available when you’re up to pick or don’t want to pay the price to trade up for a pick to get a prospect you really like. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.
4.05 (13.3 Trade Value)
- Sean Tucker, RB TB
- Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
- Michael Wilson, WR ARI
4.06 (12.7 Trade Value)
- Zach Ertz, TE WAS
- Jalen Coker, WR CAR
- Luke Musgrave, TE GB
4.07 (12.1 Trade Value)
- Brandin Cooks, WR DAL
- Kayshon Boutte, WR NE
- Adam Thielen, WR CAR
4.08 (11.4 Trade Value)
- Noah Gray, TE KC
- Noah Fant, TE SEA
- Ty Chandler, RB MIN
There are some interesting buy low options on this list, but generally, you can’t expect to gain much from trading away just a fourth-round pick. I wholly support moving on from these picks if you can, but they need to be part of a larger package, instead of just one-for-one. Throw in a fourth-round pick to try to turn a second-rounder into Deebo Samuel or Jayden Reed. Perhaps you could try to buy your way into the end of the first round with a mid-second and a mid-fourth.
Dynasty Recommendations
Typically, I’d much rather trade away a fourth-round pick than use it on a rookie. Looking at the historical consensus picks in this range, the hit rate is pretty good, about 17% of them became great dynasty assets. But, Jayden Reed, and especially Puka Nacua, are complete outliers. If we zoomed out further than the past three years, I’m sure the hit rate would be in the single-digits for picks in the middle of the fourth-round.
I like trading away fourth-round picks, for pretty much anything I can get. Typically I try to maneuver my way up the board to target higher-end rookies that I actually want to have on my team. I’ll use my fourth and second to try to move up, even if it is just a pick or two, to try to make sure I get my guy. This strategy works best during the draft, instead of before it, because you’re able to read the board and highlight the needs of your team and the teams you’re trying to trade with.
If you do decide to use these picks, wide receivers will hit at a higher rate than running backs in this area. You may end up getting lucky with a back who gets the PPR side of a platoon, or benefits from some injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but they’re more likely to be street free agents in a year or two than a dynasty asset. When you look at the players that did hit in this range, they’re both standouts from that year’s senior bowl. Jack Bech, Jaylin Noel and Elijah Arroyo would be the players I’d be targeting early on, though all of them could move up the board into the third round when all is said and done. This is a very deep running back class, but I’d rather focus on that position earlier in my rookie drafts, and try to find the values at wide receiver or tight end later on.
- Positional Strengths of the 2025 NFL Draft: Offense Edition - April 23, 2025
- 2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Tai Felton, WR Maryland - April 22, 2025
- 2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.01 - April 21, 2025
