Dynasty Decision: Jonathan Taylor
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
Taylor has had a storied fantasy career. Despite only being in his fifth year, he has won people leagues, lost people leagues, and everything in between. Now, heading into year six, Taylor is at a career crossroads like the entire Colts franchise. So, what does that mean for his fantasy outlook? Should we be buying in, or is it time to sell high?
Previous Performance
Taylor came out of the gates in his rookie year slowly before finishing on an absolute tear. From week 13, he averaged an incredible 26.1 points per game and helped carry people to titles. He then built off that finish with an overall RB1 finish in his sophomore year, averaging a remarkable 21.9 points per game. Taylor looked poised for fantasy stardom for years to come. However, he struggled to stay on the field in both 2022 and 2023 with a mix of ankle and thumb injuries, and disappointingly, his raw fantasy production didn’t match up to his first two seasons. His yards per carry dropped from 5.5 in 2021 to 4.5 and 4.4 in 22 and 23, respectively. A lot of this was offensive line-related as they deteriorated significantly in production across the board, but the frequency of Taylor breaking big runs and what he was doing after contact was not where it was early in his career.
This led to a make-or-break season in 2024, having been paid a big contract he needed to deliver. Taylor bounced back impressively, finishing as the overall RB12 despite missing three games due to injury. He was the RB7 in points per game and finished the season with three performances of over 25 points in a row. All of this despite consistent changes at quarterback and a vastly different offense between having Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center.
Situation and Usage
Taylor is in an impressive position to produce heading into 2025. He has a top-five run-blocking offensive line (per Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade), returning four of five starters with the chance to retain Ryan Kelly at center. He should also see advantageous looks due to sharing a backfield with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. The lack of an obvious pass-catching compliment in the backfield should open up more pass-game usage.
However, all of this could change as we head into the off-season. If Kelly moves on in free agency, the Colts will miss the anchor of their line. The draft class is expected to be loaded at running back, and the Colts could opt to add some competition to their veteran running back.
Overall, I expect Taylor to remain in an above-average situation to run the ball and should be an elite rushing option at the position yet again. However, the passing game is less obvious Anthony Richardson is not a high proponent of the check down instead rather pushing the ball downfield. And there is the risk that they could add a pass-catching back in this year’s draft or free agency.
Contract
Taylor signed a three-year $42m contract in October 2023. That contract is beginning to come to its conclusion. 2025 is the penultimate year, and next off-season, he will only have a $2.5m dead cap hit if he is released. This means that he is essentially playing year to year, and if he has a poor year, the Colts can move on from him with very little punishment. Alternatively, if he plays well, it is doubtful he will play out 2026 in the final year of his extension and would more likely sign an extension next off-season.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB11 in January ADP and the 52nd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a random 2025 first-round pick and third-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Taylor feels like the perfect sell candidate right now. His value is still inflated as he has a good track record of production and finished last season on a great run. However, a lot of risk is baked into the current valuation, and at running back, there is always the concern that the cliff could come quickly. Anthony Richardson is a precarious proposition at quarterback and could eat into some of Taylor’s workload, but if Richardson doesn’t produce, 2025 could be the final year for GM and HC. If they have a whole new regime in 2026, they may not want to keep hold of aging back from whom they could save money moving on. On top of all of that, there is a very real scenario in which a compliment or competition is added to Colt’s backfield in a particularly strong running back class.
If you’re a contender, I understand the allure of keeping hold of a player like Taylor, who could win you a title if he stays healthy and produces, but I think you need to be divesting and gaining an asset. Could you move on from Taylor to a player like James Conner or Derrick Henry while also adding another asset in the process? That way, you can continue to contend while gaining additional draft capital to spend across the rest of your roster. As a rebuilder, you should be proactively moving Taylor right now. As soon as rookies start to get added into dynasty ranks, his value will decrease as he falls from a top 12 back to a mid-RB2 type once the rookies get added in.
It may be painful, and I wouldn’t just sell for the sake of it, but I think now is the time to be proactive in moving on from Taylor.
- Dynasty Decision: Jonathan Taylor - February 7, 2025
- Superflex Dynasty Rankings Explained: Rich Cooling - January 31, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - January 2, 2025
