Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs: Final Grades
This is the final edition of my rookie running back series for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Here is the grading system for this series. I have noted below my pre-draft grade and ranking and my post-draft grade and ranking for each running back as well as a bit about what I like or don’t like about where each player eventually got drafted and where they are going in rookie drafts.
Grading System:
- A = Elite – Early to late first-round NFL pick
- B = NFL starter Potential – Day two selection, second or third-round pick
- C = RBBC, Needs an Opportunity – Day three selection, fourth or fifth-round pick
- D = Backup or Specialty back – Day three selection, sixth or seventh-round pick
- F = Bust/Longshot – Late pick or undrafted free agent
Trey Benson, RB ARI
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – A- RB1
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – A- RB1
Benson was my RB1 coming into the NFL Draft, and he leaves as my RB1, barely. Benson was the second running back off of the board in April. Arizona took him with the second pick in the third round.
That is good draft capital and a nice landing spot with the Cardinals has me excited about Benson’s fantasy impact. He joins an Arizona offense that is starting to look dangerous with QB Kyler Murray, fellow rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr (who was the number four pick in the draft), WR Zay Jones, TE Trey McBride, and RB James Conner.
Benson should start the season as RB2 behind Conner, but I could see a pretty decent split this season. Conner has missed eight games the last two seasons and has never played a full season in his seven-year career. He is also 29 years old and coming off his first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career.
I love this landing spot for Benson. Depending on your team build there are definitely some situations where I am taking him ahead of Brooks in rookie drafts. I just like the potential of the Cardinals’ offense versus the Panthers’ offense.
Benson has underrated hands and catches the ball well out of the backfield. I can see him stealing third-down work. Plus, he has the speed, 4.39 40-yard dash, to bust the big play. He is currently a steal at the beginning of the second round of rookie drafts.
Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B+ RB2
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – A- RB2
What we learned about Brooks at the NFL Draft was that at least the Carolina Panthers are not worried about the ACL tear he suffered in November last season. He was the first running back drafted and got solid draft capital, going in the second round with the 46th overall pick.
The good news coming out of Carolina is doctors like what they are seeing, and Brooks is talking about being ready for the start of the season. This should make fantasy managers happy. But I am not convinced Brooks will take over the backfield right away at the beginning of the season. Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders should get some early season work, but I would expect Brooks to be the main man once his knee is fully healed and ready to go.
Brooks is only 20 years old, so I wouldn’t let the knee injury dissuade you from drafting him near the end of the first round in dynasty leagues.
Blake Corum, RB LAR
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB4
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B+ RB3
Many people thought the third round was where Corum would be taken, and those people were correct. Most pundits thought he would be selected by the Los Angeles Chargers and his former college head coach Jim Harbaugh, but instead it was the LA Rams and head coach Sean McVay who selected Corum with the 83rd pick overall.
If Corum had gone to the Chargers, he would have been the favorite to win the starting running back job. That would have likely made him a late first-round or early second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
But instead, Corum heads to the Rams with incumbent Kyren Williams holding down the RB1 spot. What makes this landing spot so interesting is Corum and Williams are pretty similar types of players. They are the same height (5-8), Corum weighs 10 pounds more (205-195), and Corum has a slightly faster 40-yard dash time (4.53-4.65). Both players are also 23 years old, even though Williams was a fifth-round pick in 2022.
This would seem to mean Corum is stuck behind Williams unless there is an injury. But the interesting thing is because they are so similar, an injury, a fumbling problem, or anything else could make it very easy for the coaching staff to plug Corum right into the lineup.
Corum is currently going in the middle of the second round in rookie drafts. Count me as someone who is very intrigued with this situation.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB GBP
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB6
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB4
Lloyd’s landing spot can be looked at in multiple different ways. Being stuck behind newly signed Josh Jacobs isn’t ideal, but Green Bay could get out of Jacobs’ contract after one season.
Lloyd seems to be a good fit for the Packers offensive scheme. Aaron Jones was able to put up strong numbers when healthy the last couple of years and Lloyd seems to fit that role nicely.
He has a lot of potential but isn’t an ideal prospect. His third-round draft capital and being the fourth running back off the board bodes well for him getting some opportunities.
I said this in my pre-draft article, which holds true with his new quarterback Jordan Love: “At 5-9, 220 pounds, Lloyd has ideal size for an NFL running back. He was a very good pass blocker at USC. He was good at picking up blitz packages, helping to protect QB Caleb Williams, which should help him stay on the field in the NFL.”
Lloyd is currently going mid to late second round in rookie drafts. I’m taking him in that range if I get the chance.
Ray Davis, RB BUF
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB5
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB5
Davis is a player I have loved throughout the pre-draft process. I was hoping he would go in the late third round or the fourth round. When he was selected in the fourth round by the Buffalo Bills, I absolutely loved it.
He should immediately be the number two running back behind James Cook. I can see a situation where Davis grabs more snap share as the season progresses. He is already 24 years old, the same age as Cook. The Bills drafted him to play right away. He isn’t going to sit.
Cook broke out in 2023 with 1,122 rushing yards and 445 receiving yards, but only had six touchdowns. He also struggled to hold onto the football, fumbling four times last season.
Davis is sure-handed. He also has a nice receiving profile and can score, piling up 14 rushing TDs and seven receiving TDs during his last season at Kentucky. The Bills want to keep superstar quarterback Josh Allen healthy, and I could see some of those short-yardage touchdown runs going Davis’s way this season.
Davis is going all over the place in the third round in rookie drafts. If I don’t get Corum in the second round, or I draft a WR in the second round instead of an RB, I’m grabbing Davis in the third round and I’m loving it.
Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB7
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB6
When we talk about pre-draft rankings and post-draft rankings and why landing spots can be so key to a player’s value, Wright is a perfect example. He was all over the place rankings-wise in the pre-draft process, but he has solidified himself as a top-five RB in this class with the perfect landing spot.
Wright is an explosive player, who needs a wide-open offense that creates space for its’ running backs, in order to use his 4.38-second 40-yard dash speed to create big plays.
Miami couldn’t have been a better fit for Wright. Head coach Mike McDaniel showed how explosive his offense could be last season and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were the beneficiaries.
At 32 years old, Mostert had his best professional season with 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns in 15 games. Achane, a third-round pick in 2023, only played in 11 games due to nagging injuries, but he had five huge games and ended the season with 800 yards and eight touchdowns.
Wright is the exact same type of player as Achane and Mostert. Will Wright ever be the full-time starter for the Dolphins? That’s a big if. But what Mostert and Achane showed last season is that you just need some of the touches, not all of them, to be successful in the Dolphins offense.
As we saw last season, Mostert and Achane are likely to miss time with injuries or take fewer snaps in an effort to stay healthy. This should open the door for playing time for Wright, which could turn into some big numbers.
Wright is currently going in the mid to late second round in rookie drafts. Like Achane last season, Wright could be a huge hit in fantasy, but he comes with risks.
Will Shipley, RB PHI
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C+ RB8
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C+ RB7
Shipley is a player not a lot of people were excited about in the pre-draft process. The Eagles liked him enough to take him in the fourth round of the draft.
Former Giant Saquon Barkley is the go-to running back in this offense. That isn’t a question. But Philadelphia has used quite a few running backs in the last couple of seasons.
Kenneth Gainwell should be the RB2 behind Barkley, but I can see Shipley getting some snaps as the season progresses. He should be a nice third-down back and a player who can also kick and punt return. He averaged 24.9 yards per kick return and was named First-Team All-ACC, All-Purpose and Specialist his sophomore year.
Shipley is more of a draft-and-hold for me. Gainwell is in the last year of his rookie contract, and there is a good chance the Eagles will move on after the season. If that happens, Shipley should see a value bump next season.
Shipley has been going in the third round of rookie drafts. If I have room to stash him this season, then I’m drafting him somewhere in the last third.
Bucky Irving, RB TBB
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C RB9
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C RB8
Irving was in a lot of people’s top five running backs until the combine when his size, 5-9, 192 pounds and disappointing 4.55-second 40-yard dash put some damper on his hype train. He dropped to the fourth round in the NFL Draft, but goes to Tampa Bay, where he is a smaller, more efficient runner than the guy in front of him.
Irving was one of the most productive running backs in the nation in the last two seasons. He had the fifth-highest Pro Football Focus rushing grade among all college running backs over the last three years.
That is interesting because the running back in front of him on the depth chart in Tampa Bay has been completely inefficient. Rachaad White put up great fantasy numbers last year, but it was because of volume. I think Irving has a chance to cut into that volume and should be a good replacement in the system if White gets injured.
Irving is currently going all over the third round of rookie drafts. He is not a player I am drafting a lot of right now.
Kimani Vidal, RB LAC
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB14
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C RB9
Vidal is one of the running backs who benefitted the most from a great landing spot that seems to come with a great opportunity. The Chargers were expected to take a running back much sooner than pick 181, but Vidal lasted until the sixth round.
At 5-8, 213 pounds and a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, Vidal was impressive at Troy. There seems to be a pathway to playing time for what should be a run-heavy offense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
The running back room in front of Vidal has former Ravens Gus Edwards, 29 years old, and JK Dobbins, three straight season-ending injuries, along with third-year player Isaiah Spiller. This is a group Vidal could compete with and beat for playing time.
Vidal has seen his value rise as high as the third round in some leagues. I am not reaching for him, but if he is there in the late third or early fourth round, I’m snagging him.
Braelon Allen, RB NYJ
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – B- RB3
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C RB10
Allen was my biggest faller from pre-to-post-draft ranking. He barely did anything in the pre-draft process from the combine to his pro day and refused to run the 40-yard dash at either event causing some to be concerned.
Well, that was for good reason. Allen was ultra productive as a freshman and sophomore at Wisconsin rushing for more than 2,500 yards and 23 touchdowns, becoming a “Devy Darling” in fantasy circles.
But the new coaching staff that came to the Badgers in 2023 wanted to focus more on the pass, causing Allen’s numbers to drop. He didn’t look comfortable in the new system and some of the earlier worries about his game started to stand out.
Allen is physically imposing at 6-1, 235 pounds, but he tends to run upright and doesn’t seem to play as big or as physically as his size would suggest.
To add to Allen’s issues was him lasting until the second-to-last pick in fourth-round. Allen was the sixth running back taken in the fourth round alone, and RB10 off the board.
Making things worse was getting drafted by the New York Jets who already have superstar Breece Hall as RB1 on the team and one of the top RBs in dynasty. They also have last year’s rookie pick Israel Abanikanda in front of him on the roster. To make things worse, the Jets took receiving back Isaiah Davis out of South Dakota State in the next round.
This is what I said about Allen before the draft, and I think it was spot on: “Allen might need the right landing spot more than any other top RB in this draft class. Fantasy managers love him, but do NFL GMs? I’m not sure. Allen has the feeling of an RB that the fantasy community thinks should be a second-round pick, but the NFL might not take until the fourth round.”
Rasheen Ali, RB BAL
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C- RB13
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C- RB11
At first glance, this doesn’t look like a great landing spot for Ali, but when you look a little closer, this is sneaky good spot in Baltimore.
Ali has good size at 5-11, 206 pounds. He was a stud at Marshall with some eye-popping numbers. Ali showed the ability to run with patience but knows when to be decisive and has the speed to break the big play.
If he hadn’t ruptured his biceps tendon at the Senior Bowl, I think he would have gone higher in the draft than his fifth-round selection by the Ravens. He was looking good before the injury and then was forced to miss the combine, which moved him down some boards.
Ali starts the off-season as the third-string running back for the Ravens, but if he can get fully healthy, I think he is more talented and a better all-around back than Justice Hill, who is currently RB2. Newly signed Derrick Henry should dominate this backfield, but Henry is 29 years old and has dealt with injuries in the past.
I’m all over Ali in the fourth round of rookie drafts.
Audric Estime, RB DEN
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C- RB11
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB12
Estime going in the fifth round is not great for his draft capital. Landing on the Denver Broncos is also somewhat of a troubling situation as well.
Javonte Williams is the RB1 in Denver and his backup is Samaje Perine, who plays the third-down back role. Jaleel McLaughlin was an undrafted free agent last season who was second on the team in rushing yards and fifth in receptions.
The Broncos running backs caught a combined 128 passes last season. Estime caught 26 total passes in college.
Estime has the size NFL teams are looking for at 5-11, 221 pounds. He is a big back who is powerful and runs hard. The question is if he is going to be anything more than a goal line and short yardage back in the NFL.
I predicted Estime would be a fifth-round pick and he was. If he can find a Gus Edwards role in the NFL, I think that might be his ceiling. He is going in the fourth round of rookie drafts. He is a player I’m passing on in rookie drafts.
Tyrone Tracy Jr, RB NYG
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D- RB20
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB13
Tracy is a converted wide receiver who hasn’t played a ton of running back in his career. But he is an intriguing prospect, especially with the landing spot.
With former start running back Saquon Barkley now in Philadelphia, the backfield looks wide open in New York. The Giants signed Devin Singletary to be the starter, but he has been mostly a committee back throughout his career. Behind Singletary on the depth chart is 2023 fifth-round pick Eric Gray and Tracy.
Tracy’s receiving ability and his 4.48 40-yard dash speed, which is the fastest in the backfield, has fantasy owners excited about him as a sleeper candidate.
He has moved up rookie draft boards after being picked in the fifth round by the Giants. He has gone from undrafted in the pre-draft process to somewhere between the fourth and fifth rounds of rookie drafts.
Isaac Guerendo, RB SF
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D RB17
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB14
What to do with Guerendo? The guy is an absolute athletic freak, but he also was a career backup in college, who never put up good numbers.
Guerendo crushed at the NFL Combine running a 4.33-second 40-yard dash and added a 41.5-inch vertical jump, both scores were tops for RBs at the combine. Those numbers were impressive enough for San Francisco to take him in the fourth round of the draft.
As far as nice landing spots go there could be a lot of spots worse than playing for the 49ers’ offense. Guerendo is behind the best running back in the league and defending Offensive Player of the Year in Christian McCaffrey. Elijah Mitchell has been a solid RB2. But if Guerendo was ever to get into the starting lineup, it would be interesting to see what head coach Kyle Shanahan could do with his talent.
Guerendo is a late-round flyer who most likely will need some injuries in front of him in order to see the field.
Frank Gore Jr, RB BUF
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C RB10
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB15
This one was a shocker to me. I really liked Gore Jr in the pre-draft process as he was my RB10. I liked what he did at Southern Miss on some pretty poor teams, rushing for more than 4,000 yards in his college career. Gore also caught 75 passes for nearly 700 yards and four TDs in his college career, despite his team having a poor passing attack.
NFL teams must not have seen what I saw on tape. I had Gore set to be a fourth to fifth-round pick, but he eventually went undrafted. He later signed with the Buffalo Bills. Gore will have to fight to make the roster, but if he does, I could see him being RB3 behind James Cook and Ray Davis.
Gore is a late-round pick in rookie drafts and will likely hit most waiver wires.
Dylan Laube, RB LV
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D RB19
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB16
Laube was drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders for his receiving profile. At New Hampshire, he had 117 receptions for over 1,000 receiving yards his final two years.
This is what I said about Laube in my pre-draft article: “Laube is going to need a team to fall in love with his ability as a third-down back. He can line up in the slot as well as the backfield. He also played special teams and had four career kick and punt returns for scores.”
Laube has found himself with a great landing spot after being drafted in the sixth round. Josh Jacobs left the Raiders for the Packers in the off-season, leaving Zamir White as the RB1. Newly signed Alexander Mattison is backing him up, though he had an underwhelming season as the Vikings RB1 last season.
Laube has a clear-cut path to relevance as a third-down back if he can impress the coaches in training camp. His special team’s ability also helps his cause, especially in leagues that score points for special teams.
He is a late-round dart throw in rookie drafts in larger leagues or someone you can pick up off the waiver wire.
Cody Schrader, RB SF
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – C- RB12
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB17
Schrader put on a show in the SEC last season at Missouri. But he is a former Division II running back who had to walk on for the Tigers. He doesn’t have the size or athleticism the NFL wants. I thought he would be a late-round pick, but he eventually undrafted.
The 49ers later signed him to an undrafted free agent contract. I would have loved this landing spot for him if San Francisco hadn’t drafted Isaac Guerendo in the fourth round. Guerendo is by far the superior athlete, but I think Schrader is the better football player.
Schrader might not make the 49ers roster, but I think he will make an NFL roster. I’m picking him up from the waiver wire.
Blake Watson, RB DEN
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D RB18
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D- RB18
I like what Watson brings to the table. He actually fits more of the mold the Denver Broncos like at running back.
I was disappointed he went undrafted, but I think he is more skilled than Jaleel McLaughlin and could be a nice replacement eventually for Samaje Perine. Watson just has to make the team.
He is a waiver-wire pickup for me unless you are in a real deep league, then I’m taking a shot on him in the last round of my rookie draft.
Jase McClellan, RB ATL
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB16
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D- RB19
McClellan was drafted in the sixth round by the Atlanta Falcons. I’m not sure where he fits in there.
Bijan Robinson is the undisputed RB1 for the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier has seen plenty of touches in the last two years and is a better version of McClellan.
If McClellan hadn’t played at Alabama, I don’t think any fantasy owners would be drafting him.
Isaiah Davis, RB NYJ
Pre-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D+ RB19
Post-Draft Grade/RB Rank – D- RB20
Davis got taken in the fifth round of the NFL Draft by the New York Jets. That is not terrible draft capital for a small school running back from South Dakota State.
Davis’s biggest issue is he went to a loaded Jets backfield. He currently sits fourth or fifth on the depth chart. He will have to blow coaches away with his receiving ability if he is going to make this roster.
I’m passing on Davis.
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