2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Brenden Rice
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Brenden Rice
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Los Angeles Chargers
College Team: USC
Draft Status: Round seven, pick five (225th overall)
Brenden Rice is the son of Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice, who had a spectacular career with the San Francisco 49ers and other teams. Jerry is considered by many people to be the greatest wide receiver in NFL history, so that is a lot for Brenden to live up to. Brenden Rice was considered a three-star prospect coming out of Hamilton High School in Chandler, Arizona. He originally committed to Colorado and played his first two seasons for the Buffaloes.
Rice transferred to USC in 2022 and was considered a four-star transfer at the time. He joined new Trojans coach Lincoln Riley and star quarterback Caleb Williams, who came over to USC from Oklahoma that season.
Data courtesy of Sports Reference.
Rice had a solid junior year fitting in with a mix of talented wide receivers. He turned it up his senior year and was one of Williams’ favorite targets. Rice has the advantage of playing in Lincoln Riley’s offensive scheme. His variation of route concepts and the overall offense should benefit Rice at the next level. Rice played in a crowded wide receiver room at USC and was still able to carve out a role. He played with multiple other wide receivers who are now pros, so he has seen what good competition looks like in practice.
The Los Angeles Chargers organization got to see a lot of him over the past two seasons being in the same city. They liked enough of what they saw to take a shot on him in the last round of the NFL Draft.
Talent
Brenden Rice Combine Results:
- Height: 6′2″
- Weight: 208 lbs
- Arm: 33”
- Hand: 9 5/8”
- 40-Yard Dash: 4.50 Seconds
- 10-Yard Split: 1.55 Seconds
- Vertical Jump: 36.5”
- Broad Jump: 9’11”
Data courtesy of RAS.
Rice had a good but not great showing at the NFL Combine. He has a nice combination of size and speed. But the 2024 NFL Draft was loaded at the wide receiver position. Three wide receivers went in the top nine picks of the draft. Another four wide receivers went in the first round. The second and third rounds saw a total of nine wide receivers taken. In total 35 wide receivers came off the board, Rice was the 32nd receiver taken.
Rice was a touchdown machine in his last season at USC, averaging one per game. His 12 TDs were good enough to finish top 10 in the nation. Rice’s 17.6 yards per catch was also impressive. He showed a good ability to go up and get the football at the high point and create after the catch. Rice has good long speed but needs to improve getting in and out of his routes quicker. He has good but not great hands.
If you look at his RAS score comps, some are better than others. Obviously, Josh Gordon is the one that stands out. I think that would be the absolute highest upside anyone could hope for with Rice. The rest of the list is uninspiring. Louis Murphy seems like a pretty safe floor comp for Rice at this point.
Data courtesy of RAS.
Opportunity
Los Angeles Chargers Depth Chart:
If there was ever a good opportunity for a seventh-round draft pick to make a team, this might be it. The Chargers have a new general manager (Jim Hortiz), a new head coach (Jim Harbaugh), and a new offensive coordinator (Greg Roman). All the change has created a new environment and a wide-open wide receiver room. The Chargers lost four of their top seven receivers from last season. Gone are top wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, lead receiving back Austin Ekeler, and top tight end Gerald Everett.
The only returners are Joshua Palmer (38 catches, 581 yards, two touchdowns), Quentin Johnston (38 catches, 431 yards, two TDs) and Darnold Parham (27 catches, 285 yards, four TDs). Los Angeles drafted WR Ladd McConkey in the second round, then WRs Rice and Cornelius Johnson in the seventh round. They also signed WR D.J. Chark and TE’s Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly in free agency.
Risk
When looking at the risks of drafting Rice, the biggest red flag is his draft capital. It’s difficult for seventh-round draft picks to make the final 53-man roster, much less make an impact on the field in fantasy.
Another thing going against Rice is that the team also selected Cornelius Johnson in the seventh round. Johnson played at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh. One would think that if it comes down to a contest between those two players making the team, the head coach would vouch for the guy he already knows and has coached.
Market
Data Courtesy of MFL Rookie ADP on DLF.
Rice is currently being drafted as WR21 in dynasty rookie drafts. The other WRs being drafted in the same range as him are Devontez Walker, Jacob Cowing, Jamari Thrash, and Ainias Smith.
This Tier of WRs is currently being drafted in the fourth round of rookie drafts. Even though Rice was drafted two to three rounds after these other wide receivers in the NFL Draft, fantasy owners are liking his upside.
You can see by the chart that Rice’s dynasty value has risen quite a bit since the NFL Draft. A big reason for that is the dynasty community, as a whole, typically likes the landing spot with the Chargers.
Los Angeles is rostering mostly young wide receivers, which gives hope to fantasy managers that Rice can carve out a role with the team.
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