Two Offenses To Target In 2024
A common strategy in fantasy football, especially redraft leagues, is to target players from specific high-powered offenses. This makes sense. Teams that run more offensive plays and score more points will naturally produce more fantasy points. Each year, that leaves fantasy managers chasing players from the Chiefs, Cowboys, or Eagles, etc. While this logical team-building strategy is very common in season-long leagues, it should also be utilized in dynasty leagues.
We know the obvious teams to target. Along with the teams mentioned above, the Dolphins, 49ers, Lions and Rams were among the top-scoring offenses in 2023. Investing early into these up and coming offenses can pay off huge in dynasty leagues. It wasn’t long ago that the Lions and Dolphins were viewed as poor landing spots, but smart coaching hires helped change that.
I have recently been focusing on two teams that I expect to take a big leap in offensive production this coming season, and perhaps for years to come.
Indianapolis Colts
The first year of the Shane Steichen era in Indianapolis came with mixed reviews as the club finished just over .500 and failed to make the playoffs in one of the weaker divisions in the league. There’s much more to the story though, and the details should excite dynasty managers.
The Colts offense was greatly improved in 2023. After averaging just 17 points per game in 2022, ranking them 30th in the league, the Colts scored an average of 23.3 points per game, good for the eleventh most in the NFL. Indy produced only eight passing touchdowns in 2022 and a total of 28 trips to the end zone. Last season, under Steichen, the team scored 19 passing touchdowns and 42 total.
Finally, the important context to consider is the injury to rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. The first-rounder suffered multiple injuries in the first month of the year, playing only one full game and seeing his season end after just one month. Still, Gardner Minshew was able to lead the team to a productive season. Not to slight the mustached Minshew, but if he can play like that in this Steichen offense, just imagine what a full season with Richardson could look like.
Costly Investments
Anthony Richardson
The rookie from Florida earned the Week One starting nod and averaged over 16 fantasy points in his four active games, despite leaving the team’s Week Five contest after scoring just 2.4 fantasy points. Richardson scored over 20 fantasy points in two contests, which gave him two QB1 games for the year. For reference, that’s the same number as another rookie signal caller, Bryce Young, who played nearly the entire season.
At this point, the only question dynasty managers have about Richardson is related to his health and injury status. As previously mentioned, Richardson suffered multiple injuries in his short rookie campaign and despite his 6’4”, 244-pound frame, some are calling him fragile. Those injuries are clearly being outweighed by Richardson’s scoring upside and young age. He’s being drafted as the QB8 and tenth player off the board overall in our latest superflex dynasty ADP.
Jonathan Taylor
Injuries and contract squabbles have also negatively impacted Taylor’s value. Not so long ago, the Colts’ back was the easy dynasty RB1 and in consideration to be taken with the top overall pick in startup drafts. Now, he’s the RB5 and outside of the first round of our 1QB dynasty ADP. Taylor does have bounce-back potential as he produced four RB1 games in limited time last season. As with his quarterback, it is exciting to think what a full, healthy season with Taylor would bring to this rising Colts offense.
Michael Pittman
With Richardson and Taylor missing chunks of the 2023 season, it was Pittman who enjoyed a breakout season. Even with Minshew as his quarterback for the majority of the season, Pittman finished as a top-24 fantasy scorer in ten games. He set a new career-high with a WR14 rank for the year. As a result of the increased production, Pittman’s price has gone up as well. His overall ADP is currently at 25 overall, up more than a full round from this time last season. He is the WR18 overall, but was being valued as a top-15 option for the first three months of 2024.
Budget Investments
Josh Downs
Serving as the Colts’ primary deep threat, Downs had a predictable inconsistent season. He did pop with a four-game stretch with at least 13 fantasy points in each contest, but then failed to crack double-digits in the final nine games of the season. Downs’ ADP reached a peak of 52 overall and WR28 in November, but is now barely hanging onto a top-100 value as the WR48. If you want a cheap piece of the Colts’ potentially explosive offense, this is your path.
josh downs | credit: marc lebryk
Adonai Mitchell
Projected by many, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter, to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, Mitchell surprisingly fell to the 20th pick in the second round, where the Colts scooped him up. Mitchell oozes upside as a size/speed freak, but also must refine those traits to succeed in the NFL. His fall in the Draft resulted in a value loss based on our rookie ADP as well. Mitchell was being drafted as the WR8 and twelfth overall prior to the NFL Draft, but has now slid to the WR10 spot with an early second-round ADP.
Carolina Panthers
While the Colts almost feel like a sure thing to produce, the Panthers require much more to break their way, but there is a case to be made. The majority of that rests on their young, first-year head coach Dave Canales. After several years with the Seahawks, where he is often credited with helping Geno Smith revive his career, Canales landed with the Buccaneers as offensive coordinator in 2023. We all know what happened as veteran journeyman Baker Mayfield enjoyed a career-best season. Now, Canales will be charged with turning around a Panthers team that was tied for dead last in the league with 236 points scored. Carolina was also last with 4,510 total yards and 2,741 passing yards.
Costly Investments
Jonathon Brooks
Miles Sanders was a free agent bust last season for the Panthers, and while Chuba Hubbard stepped up adequately, he’s not a long-term starter in the league. Former Texas back Brooks certainly might be, which is why Carolina made him their second-round pick. The selection came with some criticism as Brooks is recovering from an ACL injury and the Panthers had many more pressing needs. Regardless of that, if healthy, the rookie will have a chance to carry the load from day one. Brooks told media at the Combine that he expected to be fully cleared in time for training camp. Prior to the NFL Draft, there was uncertainty as to which player should be the rookie RB1. That is no longer the case as dynasty managers are chasing Brooks, whose value rose from 13 overall to his current 1.07 rookie ADP. It’s only fair to point out that the Buccaneers were last in rushing yards a year ago, though Rachaad White did enjoy a breakout season in terms of overall fantasy production.
Budget Investments
Bryce Young
Let’s not pretend here. Young had an abysmal rookie season, finishing as the QB23 with only two QB1 games all year. A bet on Young after year one is a bet on the talent he showed in college, which led to him being the top overall pick, but also on Canales’ chances of saving his career. After climbing as high as the QB13 before he even took an NFL snap, Young is now a very affordable QB22. Along with the head coaching change, this is a team that made upgrading offensive weapons a key priority, adding Brooks, Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Young is an exciting breakout candidate in year two.
bryce young | credit: bob donnan
Diontae Johnson
With the Steelers, Johnson had a very exciting beginning to his career, posting fantasy finishes of WR41, WR20, and WR8 in his first three years in the league. And then Kenny Pickett happened. After the Steelers selected Pickett in the first round and forced him into the lineup, Johnson was the WR34 and WR46 last season, his worst in the league. Both sides needed a fresh start and the team shipped Johnson off to the receiver-needy Panthers. At first, I viewed this as a negative landing spot for the former top-12 dynasty receiver, but with Canales and a talented quarterback in place, I am quickly warming up to Johnson as the likely WR1 in this offense. Other dynasty managers like it, too. After falling to the WR46, his lowest ADP since 2020, Johnson’s value has bounced back to WR38 and 66 overall, post-trade.
Xavier Legette
A one-year wonder for South Carolina, the outlook on Legette was cloudy for much of the pre-draft process. An impressive Combine boosted his stock and he soon started showing up in the late-first-round range in mock drafts. Just before April’s NFL Draft, Legette revealed he had been told by Canales that he would be the pick at the top of Round Two. Canales downplayed the report but eventually, the team traded up to the bottom of the first round to ensure they got their guy. Legette will be the physical presence this offense needs and will pair perfectly with target-hog Johnson. Legette saw his rookie ADP move from 18 overall to 14, post-draft, which still means he’s an affordable target for dynasty managers looking to buy into the Panthers’ offense.
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