Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Top Tier
Whether I’m the yin to his yang, the heads to his tails, or perhaps just the other side of the pillow, I’m authoring this miniseries as a supplement to my colleague Tyler Justin Karp, who is looking at the Forgotten Dynasty Youth. You might think I drew the short straw here, given that veterans are often persona non grata in a largely ageist dynasty culture. However, to me, veterans represent a very important subset of football players, as often you can find bargains relative to the shiny new toys.
So how am I defining veterans? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or wear and tear, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. However, we already know that players like Davante Adams and Mike Evans have relatively lower ADPs as compared to younger players who produce similarly solely due to their age, but that doesn’t mean they’re “forgotten.” So using age or any other single metric doesn’t seem appropriate to me. But one way or another these will be guys who have been around the block at least a few times, and who I think may have fallen a bit off the radar.
Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:
- Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
- Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
- Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)
I’ll be looking at four players per tier. Let’s get started with the Top Tier!
Chris Godwin, WR TB
ADP: 62.8
Age: 28 years
Years in League: Seven
In the 2023 season, Godwin did what he seems to do best over the past few years – operate with a shallow aDOT, secure a bunch of receptions but few touchdowns, and surpass 1,000 yards. Incredibly, he had exactly one more yard and one fewer score as compared to his 2022 season, though notably he accrued 21 fewer receptions. All told this led to a finish as the PPR WR29, which was useful if not exciting.
Dynasty owners seem to have similar feelings of “meh,” as despite rebounding from a December nadir Godwin has seen his ADP double from last January. He’s running just behind teammate Evans, which from a fantasy perspective is sensible given Evans’ finish as the PPR WR7. But it’s more noteworthy from a dynasty perspective given Evans’ 2.5 additional years of age (he’ll be 31 prior to the 2024 season).
The problem is that while Godwin has been good, he hasn’t been the same player he was with Tom Brady and Jameis Winston under center. It makes me wonder if he’s being unfairly punished by the masses by being forced to stack up against his previous highs.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
While a status as the WR36 per ADP isn’t unreasonable for an aging veteran, it’s under his recent yearly finishes and well under his ceiling. While Evans appears to be quarterback Baker Mayfield’s preferred option, he only had six more targets than Godwin. If Godwin can get another few scores and convert his looks like he did earlier in his career, he’ll provide good return upon investment.
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
ADP: 73.0
Age: 28 years
Years in League: Five
Older entering the league, McLaurin will turn 29 early in the 2024 season, meaning his “sell by” date is only becoming more prominent. And unfortunately, though he has provided an excellent fantasy floor during his five years in the league (four 1,000-yard seasons and all over 900 yards), we’ve yet to see much of a ceiling. A perfect example of a victim of circumstance, McLaurin has unfortunately turned into Allen Robinson 2.0, as a player who has yet to be paired with an above-average quarterback.
I’m not going to name all the names, but the best signal caller McLaurin played with was Ryan Fitzpatrick for about four snaps before a hip injury effectively ended his career and turned him into “goofy shirt commentator guy.” Too long, didn’t read? It’s not ideal.
Washington is facing upheaval once again in 2024, but likely for the positive. While defensive-minded, Dan Quinn is a serious coach. And while the book is still out on Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive chops, any change is likely welcome as McLaurin voiced his displeasure with Eric Bienemy’s system, noting he “ran a lot of cardio.”
Most importantly, the Commanders will undoubtedly be selecting a quarterback with the second pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. While we’ve seen a range of outcomes as recently as last year in comparing CJ Stroud and Bryce Young, both were able to support fantasy-relevant players. Given the state of Washington’s pass catchers, there will be few others than McLaurin. And if you don’t believe me, you can take the word of the Commanders’ website depth chart!
Currently being selected as the WR41 by ADP, McLaurin has never finished worse than the PPR WR32, while flashing high-end WR2 upside. It’s not exceptional, but again, context is important. If the Commanders can get their first round pick right, McLaurin will immediately be paired with the best quarterback of his career, and should function as a target hog. Perhaps even more so than Godwin, he looks like a strong speculative buy.
Christian Kirk, WR JAC
ADP: 78.8
Age: 27 years
Years in League: Six
Kirk’s inclusion in this list is perhaps the most egregious, given what he’s been able to accomplish as a member of the Jaguars. To that point, his per-game average over the past two seasons stands as a fine 4.9-65.3-0.4, good for a weekly 13.7 PPR points. In doing so he commanded a weekly 7.5 targets as a key cog in the offense.
While much has stayed the same going into 2024, fellow receiver Calvin Ridley’s defection to the division rival Titans looms large and opens up a whopping 136 targets. Though the Jaguars imported Gabe Davis from Buffalo, he’s been more tease than talent and certainly lacks Ridley’s pedigree and production. Already perhaps the 1a or 1b last season prior to injury, Kirk is the clear alpha at receiver going into the upcoming season.
Despite this, Kirk’s value has oddly fallen in successive months, and overall he’s down about 1.5 rounds since November. Perhaps Ridley’s departure has yet to fully take hold, but this could again create a possibility to buy. Still, it’s important to remember that this was one of the pass-happiest teams in the league last year – even despite missing a game, quarterback Trevor Lawrence had the eighth-most attempts in the NFL.
Tight end Evan Engram will get his fair share, and Zay Jones is an underrated player. I’m not personally sold on Davis, but the Jaguars presumably brought him in for a reason. But barring something unforeseen, I believe Kirk should accrue a fair share of the targets, making it highly likely he’ll outperform his current ADP as the WR43.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
ADP: 82.2
Age: 26 years
Years in League: Three
I could see an argument against Stevenson’s inclusion given that he’s still on his first NFL contract, having only been in the league three years. However he was older entering the league, and no position screams “veteran age devaluation” quite like running back. So onwards we march!
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As can be gleaned from the numbers, 2023 represented a step back for Stevenson, following a 2022 finish as the PPR RB8. However, his volume on a per-game basis remained about the same, at 13 carries and 4.3 targets last season compared to 12.5 carries and 5.2 targets in 2022. He even scored touchdowns at a higher clip.
Instead, where Stevenson suffered losses were in rushing efficiency and games played. To the former, his YPC average dropped off by a full yard, though notably this was still a half-yard better than teammate Ezekiel Elliott. But it was the latter that truly affected his seasonal fantasy viability – despite 2023 seeming like a massive failure, Stevenson was only 2.5 PPR points per game off his 2022 pace. Had he stayed healthy a finish as a midrange PPR RB2 was in the cards – it’s not what managers were hoping at the season’s outset, but it wouldn’t have been an abject failure.
Context is important. The Patriots had the second-fewest total offensive yards in the league, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers. Continuing, they were 28th in total offensive plays, 29th in yards per play, 31st in first downs, and tied for last in points scored. With such a comprehensive failure, it becomes less surprising that New England boasted few if any reliable fantasy contributors following the injury to receiver Kendrick Bourne.
With a new coaching staff and a likely top-three quarterback pick from the NFL Draft, it can be reasonably argued that 2023 represented Stevenson’s statistical basement. Not shockingly, this coincides with a massive loss in ADP value over the past year, as owners remain reluctant to invest.
Even if Stevenson were to just remain healthy without improving seismically on last season’s number, he’s likely to outplay his current status as the RB21 by ADP. If he reverts closer to 2022 form, he’ll massively outpace it. To me that makes him worth a bet, as I’m not terribly concerned about the arrival of one of the league’s least efficient ball carriers in Antonio Gibson, and a worst-case scenario is that he moves on down the road in 2025 to a (hopefully) better situation. If you can nab him without giving up a first-round pick, I believe it makes for a speculative bet.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Justin Jefferson Or A Bundle Of Draft Picks? - April 23, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
