Dynasty Trending Observations: Stefon Diggs Moves on
It’s the off-season but there’s plenty of news that could affect your dynasty teams. From trades to contract extensions, this week has it all with the more newsworthy items covered below.
Diggs In
Blockbuster: Bills are finalizing a trade to send four-time Pro-Bowl WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for draft-pick compensation, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/5tIJGkve6t
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 3, 2024
Despite rumblings (for a while!) that Stefon Diggs would be moving on from the Bills, it was still a surprise to see it happen. His tenure in Buffalo ended as he was moved to Houston in exchange for a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Texans then voided the later years on his contract which now has Diggs playing on a one-year, prove-it contract.
For Buffalo, it’s clear that they were motivated to move on from Diggs and not from a financial standpoint. Despite being well over the cap, they moved Diggs and over $30 million in dead cap space. They dug a deeper hole when it came to their cap situation with the trade. It’s debatable if his on-field performance was more of a trigger than off it. His production famously dropped off a cliff in the second half of the season. From week seven on, he failed to top 90 receiving yards in a game and scored just three times. What’s more odd is he was on fire to start the season, scoring the second most fantasy points among receivers until then.
But it’s in the past now and Diggs has a new home. So how will it affect him and his new teammates when it comes to their dynasty outlooks?
Dynasty Impact: On the surface, this seems like a classic case of what’s good for Houston won’t be good for fantasy teams. The Texans have two rising stars in Nico Collins and Tank Dell, the former totaling nearly 1,300 receiving yards with the latter on pace to notch a 1,000-yard campaign before an injury ended his rookie season. There’s also only one football to go around so surely Collins, Dell, and Diggs can’t all be fantasy-relevant being on the same team?
However, there is room to grow the passing side of things in Houston. Reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud proved to be an elite quarterback and could easily support three receivers. Houston was the middle of the pack regarding pass attempts in 2023, averaging just 34 per game. By comparison, the top teams were throwing 37 times per game.
Additionally, the next three receivers in targets on the Texans (Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and John Metchie) combined for 160 targets between them. And while all three are still on the team, it doesn’t mean they will be when the season starts. And even if they were, Diggs could easily take a majority of those targets away himself.
As it stands now, Collins is the most valuable dynasty asset, followed by Dell and Diggs. That sounds right as Collins ascended to WR1 status last season and is still just 25. But he’s also due an extension soon and it remains to be seen if he or Dell is in the Texans’ long-term plans.
One thing we know is Diggs is not long for Houston. Yes, they gave up a second-round pick but he’s now on a one-year deal and looking to cash in before the 2025 season. It’s doubtful Houston could afford to keep all three with new contracts. Collins is the big fish but Dell is a nice consolation prize. At the same time, Diggs is a rental, for both Houston and your dynasty team.
(P)Rice Drop
With eight felony charges and possibly more to come from a recent street-racing incident, Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is facing a suspension from the league, possible paid leave, and perhaps even termination of his contract. https://t.co/rwf3Uhe2S8
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 10, 2024
There was further clarity this week of the punishment that awaits Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice after a traffic accident last month. The incident and its fallout present a big problem for the now-second-year receiver and couldn’t have come at a worse time. He had just finished an impressive rookie season that not only saw him catch 79 balls for 938 yards but also win a Super Bowl. He was already tabbed by many as a breakout star for 2024 nearly six months before the season starts. Now he, and his dynasty managers, await his future.
Dynasty Impact: Rice’s rookie season ended on a high note as he not only won the Super Bowl but seemingly became Patrick Mahomes‘s top option not named Travis Kelce. But now his sophomore season presents some challenges both on and off the field. The latter is the most serious issue as the charges filed against him could see him, at best, suspended multiple games this season and facing more attention from the league office or, at worst, cut from the team entirely. Moving on from the Chiefs would be catastrophic to his dynasty value as any other landing spot would be viewed as a step-down.
But even if Rice stays in Kansas City and plays most of the team’s games, he now has competition for targets. Kansas City signed veteran receiver Marquise Brown to fill out the receiver room with Brown instantly becoming one of the Chiefs’ better options. Most of that 2023 receiver room is back, except for Marquez Valdes-Scanting and his 21 receptions, which means there are not a lot of targets up for grabs.
If you’re a current Rice dynasty manager, now may be a good time to move on. Our DLF Trade Analyzer has some suggestions for a swap which I would be thrilled with.
Those rookie picks look especially enticing as this 2024 rookie class is slated to be an all-timer when it comes to receivers. Move on from the headache that is Rice before it becomes a migraine.
Tua Hoops
Tua Tagovailoa reiterated that there will be no contract holdout. He plans to attend voluntary practices (OTAs) this spring.
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) April 11, 2024
Decisions will need to be made soon in Miami but it looks like quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be added to the list of young quarterbacks getting extended. For Tagovailoa, it’s a relief after a rocky start to his career between being benched and injured. For Miami, they don’t have much of a choice. Their current roster is ready to win now and Tagovailoa is vastly superior to any other options out there whether it’s a rookie or veteran.
Dynasty Impact: The news is also good for Tagovailoa’s dynasty managers or potential managers. In his first season in which he played every game, he was a low-end QB1 in fantasy scoring. There is absolutely risk involved but he’s a great fantasy option whether it’s in 1QB or superflex leagues. Currently, Tagovailoa is ranked outside the top ten in our dynasty rankings.
That represents a great value and a target for quarterback-needy dynasty teams. He has elite weapons around him, elite play calling, and elite weather. He’s a buy.
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