Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: CJ Stroud or Justin Jefferson in a 2QB League?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Scout! Scout! Let it all out! These are the slow 40 times I can do without!
There is more to come here on DLF in the coming days, with the next big off-season calendar event upon us in the form of the NFL Combine. Though it remains the ‘Underwear Olympics’ to some, we know the results here undoubtedly have the potential to influence teams’ future draft plans. So get your popcorn ready, the silly season has begun!
Let’s get to it!
From the old-school webform…
Thirst for a First
I NEED a first-round draft pick. I currently don’t have one and I’d hate having one of the top 3-4 receivers or Brock Bowers pass me by. I offered a team with no good starting quarterback in a superflex league (unless Kirk Cousins comes back) Matthew Stafford, Marquise Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and picks 2.08 and 3.07 for Jayden Reed, Michael Pittman and pick 1.05. I feel like that’s highway robbery on my part but I thought he might be desperate. If I modified it to be just the 1.05 and Reed OR Pittman, with that be fair? My other quarterbacks are Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott. – Steve in West Michigan
First things first – there’s always a certain psychology to trading. One of my former podcast mates Jarret Behar once mentioned a story about how he botched a potential trade negotiation. He viewed the other team’s roster as out of contention, and essentially led with that. There was only one problem – his potential trade partner didn’t agree! While I’d like to think getting off on the wrong foot shouldn’t inherently tank a negotiation, it’s always prudent to consider the range of outcomes when speculating about our trade partner’s motivations.
I don’t know your history with this league or this particular league-mate, so I’m not going to assume anything. It’s quite possible he is super desperate and would be willing to take a chance on a veteran like Stafford, who played quite well in 2023 and seems likely to return. JSN is also a solid piece in a dynasty setting, but I’m not sure if the picks or Brown really move the needle. Notably, the DLF Trade Analyzer thinks it’s within the realm of reason.
With that said, you’d be receiving the best piece in the deal with pick 1.05, and then the third and fourth-best assets in Pittman and Reed. Stafford isn’t negligible here, but it’s important to note he’s 36 years old with a long injury history. And while he performed better last season, his passing numbers weren’t enough to offset his lack of running ability, leading to a finish as the QB15. It’s not “also-ran” status, but it’s likely not enough to change a team’s prospective fortunes.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The hope would be that Stafford will be able to return to his 2021 glory, but that’s hard to envision. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua represent an above-average pair of pass catchers, and Kyren Williams does good work out of the backfield. But Stafford is going to need to increase both his yards per game and passing scores to become a difference-maker.
Removing either Pittman or Reed makes the deal closer for sure, but your trade partner still has all the “momentum” given the strong seasons by Pittman and Reed, and the fact he holds the valuable first-round pick. Meanwhile, Brown is coming off a down year in 2023, and it’s uncertain where he’ll wind up this off-season. JSN still has tantalizing talent, but wasn’t able to put it together in year one after being blocked by veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Stafford is as described above.
Given this, I think you might need to dangle a bigger carrot here. You mentioned you have a very strong stable of quarterbacks and are only able to start two on a weekly basis. It’s true that injuries happen, and both Prescott and Burrow have been hurt in recent years – but in a scenario where you trade a higher-tier asset, you’d still have Stafford to fall back on as QB3.
Looking on the left-hand side, we see that any one of your top trio should nab the first-round pick and a sweetener. Hurts could likely get you the pick and Pittman (and maybe even something like a favorable pick swap), and Burrow might be able to nab the pair as well. Burrow and possibly even Prescott could get the pick and Reed. These would represent deals that truly work for both teams, as your partner is getting a much-needed upgrade with a player who should possess value for years to come, and you’re getting the pick you desire and an ascending receiver.
As noted above, if you want to maintain the broad strokes of the initial proposal, your partner’s side will undoubtedly get lighter. Alternatively, you may need to prepare for the inclusion of additional and/or different players. There might still be something there, but I can understand why even a QB-needy team would rather maintain the assets in hand.
Stroud Proud
I’m wondering if I should trade CJ Stroud for Justin Jefferson in a 2QB league that can start up to four receivers? My other two quarterbacks are Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. My other receivers are Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Drake London, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Romeo Doubs, and Wan’Dale Robinson. – Joe in St. Louis
According to the most current DLF superflex dynasty ADP, Stroud and Jefferson are the fifth and eighth players being selected on average. Notably the first seven players are all signal callers, and Jefferson is the first non-quarterback going off the board. Not surprisingly, the DLF Trade Analyzer shows this would be an even trade.
As the first non-quarterback off the board, and still the overwhelming 1.01 in non-superflex settings, it would be impossible to assert that Jefferson has lost any momentum. Though it’s true he missed significant time in 2023, he still managed to put forward a sterling 68-1,074-5 line in only 10 contests. On that pace, he would have set a career high in yardage, while likely securing another 100+ receptions and nearing 10 scores. He also managed to do all this despite only playing five games with Vikings starter Kirk Cousins.
But just because Jefferson didn’t lose any momentum doesn’t mean Stroud didn’t find it! While it’s not as if Stroud was ever an afterthought, in just a single season he’s blown past nearly every other player in the pecking order. Quarterbacks will always be more valuable in superflex and 2QB settings, but this is still noteworthy. This is all to say that given the quantitative and qualitative elements in play here, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for you to ask for a little more in return.
With that said, your receiving corps is talented but aging. Nacua has the looks of a stud for years to come, and London should benefit from a competent coaching staff ostensibly looking to get the ball into the hands of the team’s best playmakers. But Kupp has fought injuries in recent years, and at some point, it’s fair to wonder if Evans’ metronome-like efficiency will begin to fall off. Godwin is coming off something of a down year and doesn’t appear to be Baker Mayfield’s favorite target, though noting there may be some winds of change blowing into Tampa. Your pass catchers are definitely in a rougher state than your quarterbacks, though the latter is a point of strength.
To that point, you don’t want to undersell solely because of your excess. Stroud’s points on your bench are still better than his points in your rival’s starting lineup – so there’s no reason to “sell low.” Obtaining Jefferson wouldn’t be doing that per se, but Stroud still likely has even more growth potential than the talented Viking.
I think I’d probably do the general framework of the deal, but I’d look to cash in on Stroud’s meteoric rise. Something like Stroud and a second-round pick for Jefferson and a first is reasonable given you’re losing the deal’s top asset. The DLF Trade Analyzer shows this skews in Jefferson’s favor, but I do still think the intangible momentum is on your side, and Stroud should have a legitimate 10-15 years of greatness ahead of him. Hard to see you going wrong in acquiring the best receiver in both the NFL and dynasty football, but ultimately you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
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