Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, we have covered two or more rookies, looking at their performance to date and future potential. With the 2023 season now complete, the final report cards are due. I’ll only look at their time on the field, ignoring injuries that caused them to miss games. This is the final week of the Rookie Report Card, and we’re wrapping it up with part two of the wide receivers. Thanks for reading this series all season long!
Josh Downs, WR IND
2023 stats: 68 receptions on 98 targets for 771 yards and two touchdowns; 157.1 points, WR43
I was worried about Downs landing in Indianapolis. Not because I don’t like Downs and Anthony Richardson, but because their strengths didn’t match up. In the NFL, I think Downs is likely a pure slot receiver. Generally, that means lots of work in the short and intermediate areas of the field, which are areas where Richardson sometimes struggles with accuracy. Unfortunately, we only got to see two full games (and two partial games) of the two working together. In those two games, Richardson targetted Downs 19 times, which turned into 11 receptions for 87 yards. That’s a good start, and we can be hopeful that another off-season of work together will only increase their connection.
Downs’s best stretch of the season came in weeks five through eight. He scored no less than 13.1 points and was the WR11 over that span. After that, his season sort of petered out, along with the Colts as a team. He failed to score double-digit points in any game over the final nine weeks of the 2023 season. Downs seems to be in an ideal spot entering year two, playing second-fiddle to Michael Pittman, assuming they resign him. Pittman is a UFA so he may leave for greener pastures, but I guess they get a deal done. If the Colts add another receiver, I’d bet on it being one that can play on the outside, hopefully opposite Pittman. Downs’s role is secure in any scenario.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
2023 stats: 63 receptions on 93 targets for 628 yards and four touchdowns; 149.8 PPR points, WR48
In the song “The Wretched” by Nine Inch Nails, there’s a line that perfectly describes my feelings about Smith-Njigba’s season that goes like this: “It didn’t turn out the way you wanted it to, It didn’t turn out the way you wanted it to, did it?” It sure didn’t, Mr. Reznor. I really thought Smith-Njigba was going to smash this season. Geno Smith has such an incredible comeback season in 2022 that I thought he would build upon that success. After all, the entire team got better around him.
He was, of course, going to be playing behind two outstanding receivers, but I wrote that concern off for two reasons. Firstly, Shane Waldron, the Seahawks Offensive Coordinator (Now the OC in Chicago), is from the Sean McVay tree and well-versed in effectively using three-wide sets. Secondly, Tyler Lockett had to begin his aging-out decline, right? As it turns out, the rumors of Lockett’s demise were greatly exaggerated (by me), and he was still very good in his age-31 season and played in all 17 games. DK Metcalf did miss one game in Week seven, and that happened to be Smith-Njigba’s highest-scoring fantasy day of the season at 16.3 points. He produced much more consistently the rest of the season but never produced a WR1-level game.
Still, in every game, he looked every bit the prospect we thought he was. He showed he could play both inside as a natural slot receiver and rotate to the outside when needed. He is a complete receiver. On the season, he ran 75% of the routes and pulled in an 18% target share compared to 22% for both Lockett and Metcalf. If the new coaching staff wants to get out on Lockett, they can do so this offseason, but it comes with a dead cap hit of $19.7M. It would actually be cheaper to get out on DK Metcalf with an $11.5M dead cap, but I can’t imagine they would cut bait with him. We may be looking at a similar work split for these three again in 2024, but I’m optimistic that even if this happens, Smith-Njigba will grab a bigger slice of the pie next season.
Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
2023 stats: 38 receptions on 67 targets for 431 yards and two touchdowns; three carries for nine yards; 94 PPR points, WR78
Players in the next section deserve to be discussed more than Johnston, but we must highlight how bad he was this season despite ample opportunities. He was blocked by two veterans ahead of him at the start of the season, but Mike Williams went down in week three, and yet he couldn’t capitalize. Johnston remained the WR3 on the team as he could not beat out second-year receiver Josh Palmer. By the way, Williams scored 50.2 PPR points in those three games, more than half of Johnston’s total in 17 games.
Palmer was injured in week eight and missed the next six games. Still, Johnston couldn’t have much success outside his season-high 13.4 points in week ten. Keenan Allen was injured in week 14 and missed the rest of the season, and Johnston was still unable to have a breakout performance. Granted, Justin Herbert also missed week 15-18, so Johnston was dealing with Easton Stick as his quarterback, but Palmer could muster 21.3 points in week 15 even with Stick.
Johnston was a massive miss in the mid-first round of rookie drafts. I was entirely out in the predraft process, but I was back in when he landed with Herbert and the Chargers. I should have stuck with my initial take, but there is much room for improvement. In general, rookie wide receivers who bust entirely in year one don’t go on to do great things, but with an exciting new coach in Jim Harbaugh, there is some hope. Johnston needs to learn to be more physical at the catch point and become a better route-runner, but all the tools are there to be a successful player.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR GB
2023 stats: 39 receptions on 58 targets for 581 yards and four touchdowns; 119.8 PPR points, WR58
Wicks filled in admirably for Christian Watson in 2023, especially at the end of the season when he produced a 15.7-point game in week 15 and had a massive 24.1-point performance in the final week of the season in a game the Packers needed to win to get into the playoffs. He flashed his talent throughout the season with a play or two in many games, and it was the early development and rapport formed with Jordan Love that turned him into a critical piece of the offense down the stretch.
The Packers receiving group is the youngest in the league. All of them, including the two tight ends, had just completed their first or second year in the league. Seeing these weapons develop and evolve with Jordan Love will be exciting. There is a wide range of outcomes for Wicks in 2024 and beyond. If Christian Watson can’t realize his immense talent and put together a healthy season, Wicks Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed could be vital components of the receiving game. If Watson does put it together, Wicks likely becomes a player who is too unpredictable to use in fantasy outside of “what the heck flex” considerations.
Honorable Mentions
Michael Wilson had a couple of excellent games early in the season, scoring 26.6 points in week 4 (WR6 on the week), and finished strong with two 15.5-point weeks to close out the season. He had a rough patch in the middle of the season, where he missed time due to a foot injury. I wish he had capitalized on his opportunities more, but we must remember this was a bad team for most of the season. An entire offseason of work with Kyler Murray should help. Still, Arizona is a candidate to draft a wide receiver highly – perhaps even Marvin Harrison Jr. Honestly, Wilson is probably better off as a secondary target anyway.
Demario Douglas was the best and most reliable wide receiver for the Patriots in 2023, but the bar was pretty low. He should have the slot role locked down for 2024, but this offense is a mess and needs a ton of help. His role could produce a ton of targets depending on who gets added to the mix.
Trey Palmer was able to carve out a role as a reliable third wide receiver target behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs could potentially move on from Godwin this off-season, but it would produce $26M in dead cap. Palmer may have to wait until 2025 for his role to grow significantly.
Jonathan Mingo was disappointing considering the opportunity to take over a receiver group lacking talent, but the entire offense just couldn’t get it going. Bryce Young also needs to improve in year two for Mingo to improve.
Marvin Mims looked like a big-play receiver early in the season that just needed more playing time, but it never really came. Not only was he playing behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, but Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey also got opportunities ahead of Mims. That’s not great. The team has an easy out on Sutton’s contract if they choose to take it. The team did pick up Jerry Jeudy’s fifth-year option, so unless there’s a trade like the one that was heavily rumored this season, it seems likely Jeudy will be back in 2024. I love Mims’s talent, but his future is uncertain at best.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.01 - April 23, 2024
- Two Players To Sell Before The NFL Draft (And One To Buy) - April 17, 2024
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - February 10, 2024
