Dynasty Trending Observations: Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs
It’s playoff time which means it’s almost time to crown a champion and start the off-season. But as dynasty players know, there is no off-season. Below are late-season developments to keep an eye on when you start planning for next year.
Living on Darnold Time
https://twitter.com/wingoz/status/1868829812732969186
Now that we’re three-quarters into the season, this Sam Darnold thing might be real. His 11 touchdowns through the Vikings’ first four games could be seen as a small sample size but we’re now 14 games into the season and he’s already set a career-high in touchdowns and passing yards and is a QB1 in fantasy scoring. It’s not just the cumulative numbers that Darnold is racking up, either, he’s also getting more efficient. His 8.5 yards per attempt this season is over a yard more than his 7.0 career average and his 250-plus yards per game is more than 50 yards above his career average. He’s also led the Vikings to a 12-2 record and an inevitable playoff birth.
But when the Vikings season eventually ends, whether with a Super Bowl victory or not, they’ll have a decision to make about Darnold that will affect not only the franchise but dynasty leagues all over.
Dynasty Impact: Darnold’s upcoming free agency will be one of the most consequential in years. Suppose the Vikings hadn’t drafted Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy in the first round this past April, Darnold re-signing would be a no-brainer. With no long-term solution at quarterback, Darnold would have earned an extension and a big payday from Minnesota. But McCarthy’s presence complicates matters and makes it possible for Minnesota to let Darnold walk.
Then the question becomes ‘Can Darnold replicate his success anywhere else besides Minnesota?’ He certainly didn’t in his multiple stops before Minnesota. Was it coaching? Was it the players around him? Whatever the reason, Minnesota seems to be the only place that Darnold has thrived. Currently, he’s only a low-end QB2 when it comes to dynasty value.
That appears to be accurate when you consider his career before Minnesota plus his breakout year. Keep him there when you’re evaluating your dynasty roster and in need of a quarterback in superflex leagues.
Cousins Retreat
Falcons faced first-and-10 24 times tonight.
They ran the ball *23 of those 24 times*.
The one time they threw on first-and-10 all game was the Cousins interception.
Typically threw 42% of the time on first downs before Monday night.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 17, 2024
Nothing encapsulates the Kirk Cousins experience recently more than this post. The Falcons, seemingly aware of just how washed Cousins is now, are doing everything they can to get the ball out of his hands. His 17 pass attempts on Monday were the lowest of the season to go along with a season-low 11 completions and season-low 112 yards. He also threw another interception, which he’s done in 10 out of 14 games this season.
For many, this was more writing on the wall that Cousins needed to be replaced. And like the Vikings, they also drafted a quarterback in the first round to, eventually, take over. But also like the Vikings decision on Sam Darnold above, it’s not that simple.
Unlike Darnold, Cousins already cashed in when he, coincidentally, left the Vikings. The Falcons handed him a huge, guaranteed deal that makes it extremely painful to cut him either this season or next. So when they drafted Michael Penix Jr so high in the first round, it was confusing. Now it looks prophetic as the calls for Penix to come in were loud enough he’s now the starter. So what does this do to either of their dynasty stocks?
Dynasty Impact: It didn’t take long for the Falcons quarterbacks to swap who was the more valuable when it comes to dynasty leagues.
It’s getting so bad for Cousins that he’s completely dropped off our ADP tool but I don’t think he’s that far gone. For example, look at Aaron Rodgers in his first (full) season with the Jets this season. He’s nowhere near the MVP-level of play we’re used to but he’s still a top-12 fantasy quarterback this season. Cousins, if/when he ends up on another team could still put up numbers as a backend QB2 for your dynasty superflex team.
Penix is a wild card. He has first-round capital and the Falcons have plenty of talent around him but he’s thrown just five attempts in his rookie season. His current dynasty value is outside the top 24 and should stay there until we see more. Of course, we will be seeing more real soon.
Diggs In
Texans receiver Stefon Diggs leaves door open on return to Houston, says 'everything is good' on ACL https://t.co/TnbcpVhiCJ
— Chronicle Texans (@ChronicleTexans) December 17, 2024
When we last left Stefon Diggs, he tore his ACL, ending his 2024 season. It’s his first in Houston and, after some contract wrangling, potentially his last with how easy Houston made it to cut him loose. And while it looks like Diggs is open to a return, are Houston?
Diggs was, statistically speaking, trending downward playing second fiddle to emerging stud Nico Collins. His 10.6 YPC was more than a yard-and-a-half less than his career average; his 62 yards per game was 10 yards less than his career average; and he was on pace for his lowest targets and reception totals since his Minnesota days five years ago. Now, he was still a top-15 fantasy receiver when he went down in the middle of the season. But it required being on an above-average offense with a better-than-average quarterback. All bets are off if/when Diggs moves on to another town.
Dynasty Impact: Even before the injury, the lack of production affected his dynasty value noticeably. 
Diggs is now toiling away as barely a top-60 dynasty receiver. For most leagues, that would be the fifth wide receiver on your roster which seems low, no matter where he ends up. If he ends up as the top receiver on a bad team, he’s in line for a lot of targets. If he ends up back in Houston, or the WR2 on another good offense. Diggs seems like a value this off-season, not because he’s still an elite but because he can be high-quality depth for your dynasty team.
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