Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week 14

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind. 

This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

Dynasty Five

Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off another week of NFL action.

Addison Explodes

Jordan Addison did it again. For the second time in a three week span, Addison went off as the Vikings doubled up the Falcons and won easily in Kirk Cousins’ “revenge game.” Justin Jefferson has been and will remain the key cog in the Minnesota offense, but it is time to acknowledge Addison and the impressive second season he is putting together. Addison hauled in eight of his team-high 12 targets for 133 yards and three touchdowns. That made him the WR2 on the week, just ahead of his superstar teammate, Jefferson. That also gives the USC product four top-24 performances in the past six weeks. Addison also now has finished as the overall WR1 three times in the past two seasons, tied with Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Keenan Allen for the most in the league.

You might recall Addison had a similar hot streak as a rookie last season with three top-14 performances in a four-week span. That production while Jefferson was on the shelf boosted Addison’s ADP to an unreasonable mark of WR11 and 18 overall. When Jefferson returned, Addison’s numbers fell off and his off-season ADP fell outside of the top-24 wideouts. With this recent spike, Addison has risen up to the WR20 on the season and could be in for another ADP spike. Here’s a look at Addison’s dynasty value history, using our ADP Over Time App.

Pack Attack

Although Green Bay was unable to pull out a Thursday night win over division-rival Detroit, there were some encouraging signs from the Packers, namely running back Josh Jacobs. The former Raider found the end zone three times to go along with 66 rushing yards, making him the RB4 on the week. Jacobs got off to a slow start to his Green Bay career, finishing no higher than RB23 in the first month of the season. After four weeks, Jacobs was averaging just 10.8 fantasy points per game, making him the RB31.

Since Week Four, Jacobs has more than made up for that. Since that time, Jacobs has been the overall RB3, notching over 20 fantasy points per contest. Since Week Eight, he’s really heated up with weekly fantasy finishes of RB3, RB22, RB5, RB2, RB5 and RB4. Only Saquon Barkley has been better over the past six weeks. Dynasty managers are taking notice too. His December ADP is up to 49 overall and RB12 from 69/RB20 numbers last month.

The Packers have had little choice but to lean heavily on Jacobs and the running game. Their wide receiver corps has been banged up and downright disappointing. That was never more evident than on Thursday. The Lions entered the week, allowing a dozen top-24 receiver performances, eighth-most in the league. With Romeo Doubs out with a concussion, this looked like a great spot for Jayden Reed. Instead, the second-year receiver failed to record a catch, giving fantasy managers a zero in the final week of the fantasy football regular season.

Reed has been inconsistent all season, beginning the year with a pair of top-two overall performances sandwiching weekly ranks of WR53 and WR42. The upside had quickly faded since that first month as Reed hasn’t finished any higher than WR14 in the past ten weeks. Reed’s ADP spiked to WR14 and 22 overall in October and has somehow remained in the top-30, as the WR20. If Reed carries that type of value into the off-season, he will be a clear sell for me.

Puka Power

Second-year receiver Puka Nacua has been somewhat frustrating to roster this season, as he was forced to leave early from two games and missed six weeks early in the year. When he’s been on the field though, he has been amazing. In games he’s started and finished, Nacua has produced weekly fantasy ranks of WR14, WR7, WR6, WR9, and WR19 and he topped that this week, finishing as the overall WR1. Nacua rocked the Bills with a dozen receptions on 14 targets, good for 162 yards and a touchdown. Nacua even added 16 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground.

This performance carried teams into the playoffs and left many wondering if Nacua belonged in the top tier of dynasty receivers. For most, that top tier includes Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and rookie Malik Nabers. While I am slightly worried about Nacua’s injury history, I think the rest of his profile suggests the top group of wideouts is now six-deep.

Puka Nacua | Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea

Backup RB King

Following a surprise calf injury, running back Kenneth Walker missed the Seahawks’ Week Fourteen game against the Cardinals. This opened the door for backup Zach Charbonnet to get the bulk of the work against Arizona. Seattle’s selection of Charbonnet in the 2023 NFL Draft felt like a luxury pick at the time and that’s how it has played out. Charbonnet has just a 24.7 rushing market share when Walker has been healthy. Entering Week Fourteen, there had been two opportunities for Charbonnet to have the backfield to himself and he had performed well, as our Player Splits App shows…

In a plus matchup against Arizona, Charbonnet suddenly looked like a nice play. He proved to be better than nice though as Charbonnet ran all over the Arizona defense, setting new career highs in rush attempts (22), rushing yards (134), targets (7), receptions (7), and receiving yards (59) on his way to an overall RB1 performance.

Charbonnet’s production was a good reminder of just how talented the back is, but unfortunately, Seattle seems content to rely on one back and that has been Walker whenever he’s been healthy. This season has been a reminder of how important it is to have roster depth so Charbonnet will be a trade target for me this off-season, based on talent, even if the situation is not in his favor.

Oh No, Deebo!

With the unfortunate injuries to 49ers stars Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the backup running backs, things were set up perfectly for veteran Deebo Samuel to produce at a very high level, as he has for much of the past few seasons. Instead, Samuel has seemingly regressed. In Week Six, Samuel finished as the WR10, but since then, he’s posted these weekly ranks: WR112, WR39, WR24, WR57, WR70, and WR82. Even this week, in a game in which the 49ers rolled and racked up 38 points, Samuel once again finished outside of the top 50 weekly wideouts. Samuel will soon turn 29 years old and the Niners have an out in his contract, which is currently scheduled to keep him in San Francisco for one more season.

Here’s a sad look at Samuel’s production, or lack of, this season…

For Your Eyes Only

I’ve mentioned our December dynasty ADP a couple of times, so it’s time to show you more. The full set of data should be posted on the site soon, but until then, here’s a preview…

Quarterbacks:

Running Backs:

Wide Receivers:

Tight Ends:

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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