Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
Taking advantage of potential valuation trends in the trade market is imperative. That is even more true during the season when players can experience wild valuation changes on a week-to-week basis. Each week, I will be highlighting some players you should be looking to move or acquire and the reasons why.
Buy – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
I have never been the biggest fan of Smith-Njigba as an NFL player and dynasty asset. He is plagued with a low aDOT and has been restricted to low-value underneath work throughout his short career. He has flashed in games without DK Metcalf when he’s been utilized all over the field, but every time Metcalf has been active, he has returned to his low-value role. This changed on Sunday when he was used at the deep and intermediate levels of the field. This resulted in an 11-target, ten-reception, 110-yard performance. If this usage continues, he will see an increased volume of high-value targets, which will significantly impact his overall production. The trade analyzer has him currently worth a late 2025 first-round pick, which is a price I would be very comfortable paying. You could also potentially pivot an aging veteran wide receiver as teams are pushing for playoff spots to target the young, potential superstar receiver.
Sell – D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
Coming into the season, I was significantly lower than the consensus on Swift, and I was smug with that after the first two weeks and have had an egg on my face since then. However, with Shane Waldron being removed as offensive coordinator in Chicago, there was a drastic change of responsibilities in the backfield. Since week four, he has seen more than 62% of snaps every week. On Sunday, he played only 56% of the snaps and saw an opportunity share of 57.1%. Roschon Johnson saw ten carries and 14 routes on 30 snaps compared to Swift’s 14 carries and 19 routes on 41 snaps. The more interesting development is that Johnson saw 100% of snaps in the two-minute drill and 7 out of 9 snaps on third downs. Those are the high-value touches that bring Swift the majority of his value because he is not a traditional tackle runner. This is catastrophic for his fantasy value; if this continues, he will see his dynasty value plummet. I would be looking to proactively get out of Swift before his value falls significantly. I would happily sell for an early second-round pick right now, but you may pivot to a more promising player like Chase Brown, who is currently in a similar value point.
Buy – Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
Players who are one injury away from a leading role can be incredibly valuable. Currently, in Miami, there is a two-headed backfield behind De’Von Achane because Raheem Mostert is still around. However, Mostert is likely on his way out at the end of this season. He lacks explosion and is starting to look his age. The Dolphins can save $3m by moving on from him at the end of the season. Wright had plenty of hype as a rookie prospect, but his value has dissipated as he has not had a tremendous amount of opportunity so far this season. In the off-season, when Wright steps into the clear number two role, his value will increase significantly. If Achane suffers an injury, Wright can potentially be a league winner. The Trade Analyzer places his value as an early third-round pick, and I think to pry him away, you may need to pay up a little more than that, but I would be happy to pay two third-round picks or even potentially a late second-rounder.
Sell – Jerry Jeudy, WR CLE
Selling off the back of a blow-up week can sometimes be tricky, but Jeudy has now put together three consecutive weeks of over 12 fantasy points and looks like the player we have hoped for the last five years since Jameis Winston has stepped in under center. The reason I believe you should be selling him is that I don’t believe the production is going to sustain. The Browns will likely see some significant changes this off-season and are unlikely to bring back Jameis Winston, who has been the catalyst for this bounce in production. The Browns are third in the league, averaging 44.7 pass attempts per game over the last three games. That raw volume has buoyed the target numbers significantly. Despite seeing 30 targets over those three weeks, he has been below 25% in the target share in each game. If the passing volume regresses, so will Jeudy’s production. Add that to the uncertainty of who will be the quarterback next year. It feels like the perfect time to get out on Jeudy. I would happily take any third-round pick for Jeudy, but it may be off the back of this recent trend that you may be able to get even more.
One to Watch – Jermaine Burton, WR CIN
Burton has been in this section before because he is one of the most talented deep threats in the league. With Tee Higgins returning, the expectation was that Burton’s role would vanish, but Burton still played 18 snaps and is starting to eat into the role of Andrei Iosivas. If he can take over some of that role more as the weeks continue, he could be primed for a big breakout when Higgins eventually leaves in free agency this off-season.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - January 2, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 26, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 19, 2024
