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Dynasty Trending Observations: The Quarterback Shuffle of Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa

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Tua Tagovailoa | Credit: USA Today
Michael Moore Posted On November 14, 2024
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It was an eventful week in the NFL and online with some spectacular plays, baffling (not in a good way) stat lines, and more. Below are a few of those developments and how they could affect your dynasty plans.

Circuit Baker

Leave it to one of the flashier quarterbacks in the league to possibly have the play of the year. Baker Mayfield‘s escape act from All-Pro Nick Bosa and the subsequent conversion (on fourth down no less), broke the internet Sunday. It was, so far, the best play in Baker’s best season of his career. He’s currently on pace for over 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns and has been a top-three fantasy quarterback this season.

For Mayfield and his dynasty managers, his career has been truly a roller coaster. From being the top overall pick in Cleveland and finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting to win Cleveland’s first playoff game in decades to being discarded for DeShaun Watson, to cups of coffee in Carolina and LA to finally starting again in Tampa and making the Pro Bowl. You won’t have a lot of other examples of this many ups and downs in a single career. But through all that, is he a sell-high candidate or a piece of your championship push?

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Dynasty Impact: Extra kudos would go to those dynasty managers who held onto Baker this long. It would have had to have been in Superflex leagues as Baker had never finished in the top-12 in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks before Tampa but however those managers acquired him, they’re reaping the benefits now. Not only has Baker saved Superflex dynasty teams since his arrival in Tampa. but he’s zoomed into 1QB starting lineups as well.

Will that last?

There are arguments to be made both for and against it. Baker’s only 29 and is in the absolute prime of his career. Tampa committed to him after his bounce back last season so we know he’s got a starting job for the foreseeable future. Going against it would be the team around him. Mike Evans has to retire at some point (right?) and Chris Godwin is set to hit free agency after this season. There are promising young players including Bucky Irving and tight end Cade Otton who, while not on the same level as Evans and Godwin, should still be able to keep the offense moving. Keep Baker as a low-end QB1 or, if possible, a high-end QB2 on your Superflex roster. Either way, he’s a buy.

Goff the Farm

One of the more underrated fantasy quarterbacks, Lions signal-caller Jared Goff is having another Jared Goff-type season. Even after his Week 10 meltdown (including more interceptions in one game than he’s had all season), Goff is a mid-QB2 in fantasy scoring. He’s on pace for nearly 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns and has the Lions leading the NFC.

Of course, compared to his previous two seasons, it’s a bit of a disappointment. He finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in both 2022 and 2023 and appeared to have his best set of pass catchers around him heading into 2024. Yet he’s averaging just 231 passing yards per game (his lowest since his first season in Detroit four years ago) and now has nine interceptions after this week which is more than he had two years ago and just three less than he had all of last season.

Dynasty Impact: Like Baker’s dynasty value, Jared Goff’s has been uneven. Also a top overall pick, Goff made the Pro Bowl in his second year and the Super Bowl in his third before his coach, Sean McVay, swapped him for another quarterback. It was thought that without McVay, Goff’s real and fantasy value would go down the tubes and he’d face a similar fate in Detroit and run out of town. However, he and the Lions started winning which meant his value started ascending again.

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Also like Baker, Goff could be a low-end option in QB1 leagues but would be better suited as a souped-up QB2 in Superflex leagues. He’s a great buy candidate because of the relatively low cost.

Tua Diving

To say Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had it rough his first two seasons would be an understatement. His frosty relationship with his original head coach Brian Flores was on full display in the form of benchings and public comments. Yes, he started most games but averaged less than 200 passing yards per game and had just a 27:15 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 23 games over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

After Flores was dismissed and Miami brought in offensive wunderkind Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins offense was supercharged and Tua was leading the way. In Tua’s first season under McDaniel, he threw for 3,500-plus yards and 25 touchdowns, and 4,600-plus yards and 29 touchdowns in his second. He was suddenly more than relevant in fantasy and dynasty football leagues.

Of course, Tua’s history of head injuries is as well documented as his relationship with Flores. He suffered another one this season that forced him to miss over a month and has played in just five games all season. However, even when he has played, he’s looked like a lesser version of himself. His 231 passing yards average is well below the 270 he was averaging the previous two seasons and he has just six touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Which Tua are we getting going forward?

Dynasty Impact: While Tua certainly has the talent and resources around him to be a QB1, time is running out to capitalize on it. Yes, he’s only 26 but the multiple concussions are a huge concern (in real life along with fantasy leagues) and if he doesn’t start improving upon his QB2 numbers soon, Miami could choose to move on. Tua’s currently checks in at 18 in our dynasty quarterback rankings. However, a case could easily be made for quarterbacks ranked behind him.

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For example, Baker should be ranked higher while you could make a case for Bo Nix as well. If you’re a currency Tua dynasty manager, put him up on the block and see what you can get.

Michael Moore
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