Dynasty Trending Observations: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and Ray Davis
We’re nearly halfway through the season and time is running out to make a move. For some dynasty managers, they need to solidify their roster for a playoff push while others are looking to rebuild. Below are the trends shaping this week’s moves in your dynasty leagues.
Against the (T)-Law
Trevor Lawrence knew he missed this one pic.twitter.com/6il8rEIiMM
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 13, 2024
While there’s plenty of blame to go around for Jacksonville’s abysmal start to the season, the fact remains that they’re headed for another regime change in the off-season. Current head coach Doug Pederson was supposed to bring stability to a franchise still reeling from the Urban Meyer disaster but has yet to get out of that hole. Pederson has put together back-to-back 9-8 seasons, but that underscores the team losing five of its last six to end last season, which, combined with this year’s 1-5 start, the team has lost 10 of its previous 12 games.
Whoever is at the helm next season, whether it’s Pederson or otherwise, their job will be to get Trevor Lawrence back on the right track. Last season was the start, where he had a small decline from the previous season, totaling 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in 2023 down to 4,016, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. It’s gotten worse this season, averaging nearly 30 fewer passing yards per game and barely registering as a top-20 fantasy quarterback. Lawrence dynasty managers should be hitting the panic button, if they weren’t already.
Dynasty Impact: Those dynasty managers have likely been exploring trade scenarios, especially in superflex leagues (those who had Lawrence in 1QB leagues should have moved on by now. Sadly, the longer they’ve held on, the more his value has declined.
At this point, it’s more about moving off of Lawrence and getting someone on your dynasty team you can trust more. Whether it’s his coaching or his receivers, Lawrence just doesn’t have the supporting cast to get him out of this rut right now.
If you’re a rebuilding team, he might be a good target later in the season with an eye on a possible bounceback next season. If (when) the Jaguars make a coaching change, there will surely be optimism that Lawrence can live up to the top overall pick expectations he inherited in 2021. But it will also certainly be the last chance Lawrence will have to show he can start both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues.
Burrow Speed
Joe Burrow reached a top speed of 19.86 mph on his 47-yard touchdown run, the fastest play of Burrow's career.
🔸 Expected Rushing Yards: 10
🔸 Rushing Yards Over Expected: +37
🔸 TD Probability: 0.3%Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/JF4mVmpHSO
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 14, 2024
If there was one play to remind Joe Burrow haters that he still can play, and on Sunday Night Football no less, this was it. Burrow scored on a career-long run of 47 yards and looked like the prime Joe Burrow who has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback in every season that he’s been healthy. That includes this season where he’s thrown for 12 touchdowns and over 1,500 yards in the Bengals’ first six games.
Of course, Burrow’s been healthy this season after missing seven games last season with no guarantee that he’ll stay that way until the end of 2024. But that’s the rub, isn’t it? Dynasty and fantasy managers can’t assume a player – any player – will get hurt. Players get hurt all the time whether it’s their first major injury or second or third. With Burrow, however, it’s been more top of mind since two of his first four professional seasons have ended early due to injury. So having said all that, how should you evaluate him in dynasty leagues?
Dynasty Impact: If you’re a current Burrow dynasty manager, your team goes as his health does. And this year, he’s leading you to a playoff spot. It’s not as if he’s doing anything above and beyond what he’s done before – his 263 yards per game is right at his career average of 270. But the injuries will seemingly trail him until he’s able to put back-to-back seasons of playing in nearly every game, something he’s been able to do just once in his career.
Last season’s injury was making people skittish about his long-term prospects.
His long-term value will be determined by the type of dynasty league you’re in. He’s capable of being your quarterback in 1QB dynasty leagues. But if you’re more conservative and don’t want to bank on his health every year, he’s best to avoid. However, in superflex leagues, he can be a game-changer. If you’re able to start a higher-ranked quarterback and make Burrow your number two, you’d be in a great position for a fantasy championship.
Ray of Sunshine
What a night for Ray Davis!@Ray_Davis07 @BuffaloBills pic.twitter.com/iYtCH6IRvE
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2024
With the surprise announcement that Bills running back James Cook would be inactive last Monday night, it was next man up, Ray Davis’s turn to lead the Buffalo rushing attack. Not only did Davis lead the attack but he flourished, taking 20 carries for 97 yards and adding 55 receiving yards on three receptions. He didn’t score but he still looked very fantasy-relevant and against a halfway-decent defense too. Of course, running backs are interchangeable most of the time but it’s still an encouraging development to see a rookie running back look like they belong. What does this mean for his prospects going forward?
Dynasty Impact: Davis’s performance should give the Bills all the assurances they need to NOT re-sign starter James Cook. Cook’s rookie deal runs out after the 2025 season while Davis, a rookie this year, won’t be a free agent until after the 2027 season. And with the Bills cap situation being one of the most tenuous in the league, we can’t expect them to spend more than they have to on a position like running back if they have a younger, cheaper solution.
Their respective dynasty values won’t be this far apart for long. If you’re a younger or rebuilding team, I’d target Davis now and try to get him for a reasonable rookie pick or, better yet, a veteran who won’t be on your team in 2026. He appears to be in a prime position to lead the Bills attack soon.
As for Cook managers, if you’re heading to the playoffs, you might as well keep him so he can help you this year. But if you’re a rebuilding team with him, make sure he’s one of the pieces you put on your trade bait.
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